I don’t think Biden is going to win by 16. But do you realize how much of a landslide Biden winning by 16 would look like? States like Mississippi, Indiana and Louisiana would be in play. Biden would win Texas in a rout by like 6 points. Nearly every Congressional seat in the Northeast would be taken by dems. It’s close to Reagan 1984 margins in an electorate that is way way way way more polarized than 1984.
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Fuck boomers back on the menu boys!
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I mean I do, and I was under the impression 65+ was the only thing preventing it from being that, and we’re crushing them, and we’re not gonna get that.
Basically the 50-64 crowd is a MUCH bigger problem than I understood. But there are more 30-50s so we need them to get their shit together.
Trump is basically smashing white male non-college graduates–up to 67%–and losing everywhere else.
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You all makint me real nervous with these confident takes.
Feels like the jock in a horror movie bragging that killer is dead.
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Biden’s campaign seems to be playing this all pretty much perfectly.
Rope a dope for months. Now in the late rounds selectively attacking and watching the tired old fighter stumble around the ring.
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Im still terrified, but it’s worth noting that the people who actually know what they’re doing bailed on this shit show years ago. His campaign is being run by Jason Miller, one of the biggest idiot scumbags on earth. They’re attacking Biden for…not having the virus. The campaign people never have a strategy beyond not pissing off Trump right that second (and grifting), and they’re just plain awful at their jobs.
That said, the voter suppression arm of the party (distinct from the campaign) is sadly incredibly competent and I remain very scared of that operation if the race tightens.
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Trump supporters say Trump is better on every issue. Biden supporters say Biden is better on everything. And almost everyone has an opinion. In a fair election, Biden wins even if almost all the undecideds vote for Trump, which they won’t. The only question is how fair the election will be.
I don’t Biden is doing that much better than Sanders would, but I am willing to concede having Biden plus coronavirus might have put the Senate into play in a way that was probably less likely to happen with Bernie as the nominee. That was not a variable I anticipated having to account for. Is the gap between Biden and Sanders greater than the value of a 10-20% higher chance of Democratic control of the Senate?
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As a long time Bernie fan/volunteer/voter, the answer to this is categorically no. If Biden can flip the Senate and crush Trump than it is absolutely worth the drop in candidate quality to get there.
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Do we need to do exit poling this year, or do we just count masks in line vs. non-masks?
Also, our system is so f’d up that the elderly woman sitting with the cane needs to put herself through waiting god-knows-how-long to vote.
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In order to steal the election, the polling has to be reasonably close. A -8 deficit and they try to steal there is no shot.
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538 model has Biden at 82/17. A new high.
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We are basically at the Access Hollywood stage of the game right?
The good news is the past for years should blunt the effect of whatever bullshit Barr is inevitably going to try in the next month.
Assuming Barr doesn’t get hospitalized from COVID.
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4 more weeks… gonna feel like 4 years.
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Rasmussen has Trump 9 points underwater in favorability which is a 15 point swing or so in the last two weeks. These last two weeks have been disastrous. And it seems like the Trump campaign is of course doubling down on it.
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Yeah, the last time Rasmussen had Trump this much underwater in favorabilities was July.
