This is a district that is currently represented in the House of Representatives by a Republican:
https://twitter.com/WhosWinning2020/status/1312798344192942086
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I honestly can’t decide if reading these polls is good for my health by reducing my stress of the upcoming election or bad by setting me up for the ultimate let down. 🤷
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So umm… Apparently Yougov in that same poll also tested Harris against Pence and only found that to be Harris +3 so I guess lets hope that neither Trump nor Biden kicks it.
Also Yougov was Biden+5 on September 24th, so that’s a 3 point shift in his favor.
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This is why I’m very much hoping Trump survives.
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You’re gonna be a bit surprised on election day. In quite a few red states, the old people are the ones voting blue, the younger people are voting red.
Wait, what?
Source for this?
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There’s too many to quickly search for others but here’s one.
Last Iowa poll I saw had similar numbers at least old/not old where not old was a lot more republican than the olds. (if that senate seat flips, it’s probably not gonna hold long term) (sorry it’s a lot more simply “not the oldest” voting R, trump’s base isn’t super old people, it’s 35-60 or so) There’s also a few northern states that are iffy like Wisconsin even among the youngest.
Some exit polling is gonna be wild.
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Thank you.
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Huh.
Those Wisconsin numbers don’t match up with any of the other results from the geographically and demographically similar states. Makes me wonder weather there’s some polling error at play there.
eh, I’ve read a few things that suggests those numbers are within range in some similar states but I couldn’t find it quickly with the sheer number of released polls. I probably got it off some political junkie twitter somewhere.
Still, it’s basically up to old people, if they’re voting biden in these polling numbers he will get there barring some huge out of nowhere voters for orange man.
That other shit will be looked at again in 2024/6 senate races.
I mean, they apparently have so much money at this point and it’s so late that they’re hitting diminishing returns in the traditional swing states, so this makes sense to me. He’s basically at media market saturation in the entire Midwest. Very little mail in voting and if Biden somehow could win it, we’d know on election night and the race would be over. Could also maybe pick up some house seats and possibly but unlikely flip Cornyn’s seat.
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My thoughts exactly. There’s added value with the riggage risk in the main swing states, and they have to be pretty saturated in the swing states. I’ve had two Biden ads in the same commercial break a couple times this week in PA.
Love that a little bit of Biden war chest makes Trump spend precious resources on D.
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Honestly, wouldn’t optimal game theory be fo Trump to not spend any resources in Texas to counteract Biden? Like, if Biden is able to win Texas by spending money, then Trump has already lost anyway, because no amount of money is going to help him win the true swing states, so Trump should concentrate his limited resources in the Midwest, etc., and just hope for the best in Texas. I’m sure Stepien isn’t actually that smart.
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Correct, Trump should be all-in on PA, WI, MI and either MN or AZ.
Oh the delicious irony though if they were to win in the Midwest but somehow lose it in FL/TX.
But yeah if TX flips it’s 400 EV blowout.
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This would tilt the hell out of me
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