Sinclair >>> Cable News
Low info passive GOP voters outnumber FNC mouth breathers like 10:1
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Many of my customers are > 60 and I’m frequently in their homes in the middle of the day. It’s certainly not my experience that all olds constantly watch Fox news, but anecdotally cable news is on a lot of their televisions at some point in a typical day, and it’s very often Fox.
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Also your chances of having friends and acquaintances who are part of the 200,000 goes way up if they are your peers and not your grandparents. Your grandparents have a whole social life made up primarily of other old people. They know it’s real because it’s at minimum severely fucking up people they know.
PI up 2 but seems like it should be a lot more. That poll is devastating. All of the olds who only get the propaganda from FB and Fox got to mainline what Trump really is on Tuesday and see that Biden is not some fossil on death’s door. Its over.
I’m glad these people are voting for Biden, and I totally get that not everyone is as plugged into the politics world as we are here, but for fucks sake. The guy has been an unmitigated disaster since day one of his term. This country is absolutely the laughingstock of the planet, but him being a bully at a debate is what got you to flip? Really?
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It’s probably an outlier, but the trend is good. Biden seems to have gained 2 points on average. Ipsos has him at +2 since the debate and USC Dornslife jupmed about 2 points as well. Many of the state polls did as well. And honestly, he was +7-8 before teh debates, so we just needed him to hold steady. jumping 2 is icing.
Really low information voters (read most americans) haven’t paid as much attention as us. It’s true that the debate and the follow-up clips was a lot of raw trump that they haven’t been exposed to before.
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If you read up, several of us think that vast, vast majority of people haven’t seen Trump unfiltered. Only people extremely online really have.
All the trumpers I know never sit around and watch Trump speeches or rallies or news conferences, they just watch Fox a for a few hours or listen to AM radio or read dumb shit on facebook. All that is unfiltered and only gives them the best of Trump, the things the right knows they want to hear.
The vast majority of people, even voters, barely follow politics at all.
Do you remember the primaries when they were interviewing people voting? And primary voters are way more involved than regular voters, and holy fucking shit they were dumb and had no idea what they were talking about.
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We just really, really didn’t need the variance of him testing positive, hopefully it has little impact or breaks our way.
Him fully recovering and being fine in two weeks would probably break for him if he was healthy enough to go back to campaigning because thats what the news story would be.instead of an unhinged lunatic from the debates.
The polling so far indicates it is breaking our way. 9/10 democrats and 5/10 republicans thinking he got it because he’s a jackass is huge. Also Nate Cohn’s polls that were in the field on Friday showed improvement for Biden after the diagnosis.
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The only thing I’m worried about at this point - and you can tell from Trump’s 4 minute video yesterday that the campaign is going to push this angle very hard - is Trump recovers sometime before November 3rd and declares it a miracle in which he was saved by God to lead the country.
This will be a coupled with a fake unifying, “I’ve seen the light” tone (while also not actually admitting any mistakes). I don’t think this will move the needle significantly, but much like the criminals of Gotham City, the American public is a superstitious lot, so I’m not entirely confident.
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Very true. A ton of Dem primary voters live in West Wing fantasy world and approach everything through that lens. Like when you tell them not to negotiate in good faith with Mitch McConnell they thing you’re nuts. And that the whole problem is crazy people like us that refuse to work with anyone!
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I was with you until this. He’s not taking this tone nor is he capable of taking this tone. Already from the hospital he’s not taking this tone.
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New polls (I’ll leave the memeing to others), taken post-debate, including 1 day of the Donnie Diphtheria diagnosis from Yougov:
- PA Biden +7; (Prior was Biden +4 on 9/24)
- OH: Even (Prior was Trump +1 in July)
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Oh no doubt it is right now, but if he recovers and is fine in two weeks and is out campaigning who knows?
Plus I’m also worried about him dying and all the moderates flee back to Pence and the anti trump votes go away.
I don’t think he’s going to die, so I’m not worried about Pence, but at the same time, I don’t think he’s going to be “fine” in two weeks. I mean, we have enough overwhelming evidence at this point that people who get a serious case of COVID and end up in the hospital are not fine in two weeks. Not even close.
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That Ipsos poll is only about a 1 point improvement for Biden from their last, which is good news, but not mind blowing. Trump getting the rona and it not moving the needle is a win for Biden.
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Dying is unlikely but it’s certainly drawing live, he’s still days out from when the worst of this comes and he’s already having a rough go at it.
I agree I the most likely scenario is he’s ok but fatigued, weak, and recovering slowly past the election. But there is a lot of variance with this virus.
But overall I’m optimistic.