POTUS BOWL 2020: A MEME IS A WISH YOUR <3 MAKES

m_reed05 · October 18, 2020, 4:14pm

It sounds an awful lot like your mom is voting for Trump but doesn’t want to admit it to you.

Fwiw I’m in the same boat. My mom pretty much fits your description, and I’d say she is about 70% to vote for Trump.

j8i3h289dn3x7 · October 18, 2020, 4:16pm

Yeah, Trump not being re-elected is more important.

In other news, this is from the latest Yougov poll of Wisconsin & Arizona:

I know we expected something like this, but holy fuck at Biden winning mail-in votes by 51 fucking points in Wisconsin.

jjshabado · October 18, 2020, 4:17pm

There’s a lot of structural problems with the US right now. Voting rights. Courts. Equal state representation in the senate. Even the media environment with Fox News. These are all huge headwinds to the Democratic Party making meaningful long term progress.

I have some hope with demographic changes in the US… but who knows.

Like even the chances of DC becoming a state is probably overstated because I could see courts stopping it on some bullshit constitutional originalism. Again, the courts aren’t about the law right now in many cases. It’s about justifying an action they already want to take.

And even IF DC gets in as a state it probably costs dems the next election because it fires up the conservatives, the moronic independents will hear that it’s a huge power grab, and the left won’t turn out because more wasn’t done.

Edit: ok, last post on the detail since basically I’m just on team WAAF. But also, this doesn’t mean winning now isn’t important. The situation without unified power for the next 2 years is incredibly worse.

anon38180840 · October 18, 2020, 4:23pm

Welp at least it would cost us from a position of +2 seats.

jjshabado · October 18, 2020, 4:29pm

Right, definitely. So it’s still the right play. It just is more to show that I think it’s a really long time before things are actually fair. Dems are starting from a huge deficit and all progress will cost them.

StimAbuser · October 18, 2020, 4:30pm

I made a thread for the discussion of a post dem landslide so we don’t derail this thread anymore

MysteryConman · October 18, 2020, 4:34pm

I agree. This election the center-right and the right have offered up Biden and Trump respectively.

gman42 · October 18, 2020, 4:40pm

anon38180840:

StimAbuser:

We shall see, you might be right, but I think dems know their backs are against the wall here and all norms are gone.

I think Joe will give the GOP another chance and Dems won’t blow up norms unless forced. So if they take the Senate and the GOP won’t let a stimulus vote to the floor, it might get nuked. If SCOTUS starts striking down ACA, Roe, Obergefell, a new VRA, etc, they might pack the court.

So the filibuster could happen quickly, court packing would probably be down the line a bit. Like I don’t even think striking down the ACA would do it, I think we’d waste a year trying to draft a shitty healthcare policy like the ACA that would “fix” the Constitutional “issues.”

Then SCOTUS days lol fuck you, and maybe we pack it.

Keep in mind as well that forcing us to pass another new healthcare bill in the absence of HR1 and a VRA would likely lead to a red wave midterm.

I feel like this is a dumb question, but aren’t we in an awful spot if we wait until key stuff gets struck down and then pack the courts? Wouldn’t you need a fresh challenge of all that stuff on some new grounds to get the court to hear it again after the fact? With the additional negative of a shitty precedent already being in place?

JonnyA · October 18, 2020, 4:44pm

These things are going to happen regardless of whether DC gets statehood. R’s will find something to fire themselves up - even if they have to make it up. And D’s always get complacent once in power.

That said, I disagree that independents will care for long (if at all). Just look at polling on ACB, independents know it’s a power grab, but basically don’t care. Same with Garland. R’s have realized this for a long time and take every opportunity to grab more power, while D’s keep the moral high ground as they keep seceding power.

boredsocial · October 18, 2020, 4:45pm

I’ll be surprised if we don’t significantly outperform 2016 in rural areas. Not win them certainly but definitely outperform. Those stats on farm bankruptcies (and suicides!) aren’t just ink on a piece of paper… every single one of those is an extended family that just had something super traumatic happen to them because Trump needed to get into a pissing match with China. One of the reasons why the GOP has been so staunchly free trade historically is that it’s extremely popular with farmers.

wheatrich · October 18, 2020, 4:46pm

I can see 60/40 but 50/50 is a pretty big stretch

MattyLice · October 18, 2020, 5:04pm

User name checks out.

Riverman · October 18, 2020, 5:17pm

Democrats are America’s battered spouse. Always thinking their abuser isn’t that bad, rationalizing their behavior, saying they are good people deep down, just need to be a little nicer or better or account for their feelings blah blah blah. Then eventually they trip over their dick and win an election (the cops come to the house and the abuser is arrested), only to do nothing and instantly go back to being abused. Cycle continues until the victim (democracy) dies.