I suck at making threads but figured I’d make this so we can continue talking about what happens if dems landslide win.
My last post on the subject
Damn ya’ll are a drag and make it sound like WAAF even if we win in a landslide. If I felt those things I’d just be on team burn it all down and not even be excited about a big win. I mean whats the point if we don’t fix shit and likely just hand power back to Republicans?
I feel if dems nuke the filibuster and pass heros act it could offset all the mad republicans and independents and still carry us to a big win in 2022. Thoughts?
uh, when’s the last time a president party actually carried a midterm?
the swell of people who were just voting for trump or not trump are gone, so it should be a +R environment anyway.
This group will never be satisfied no matter what they end up doing or not, they wont’ be able to get to everything you all want in any case because that’s not how gov’t works (this is a good thing, prevents another trump to have gotten all the shit he wanted in term 1) but our society is I WANT IT NOW.
Even if they take the Senate there will be some dumbass moderate Dems that won’t pass anything “too extreme” and people will be pissed that nothing in their lives has improved other than not having to hear about Trump every day so when the midterms roll around enthusiasm will plummet and Rs will roll and then nothing will really get done and we’ll give the next R a chance at president because he’s not a moron like Trump.
I’m not going to entertain this possibility right now but I have close to zero optimism about actual structural or policy progress. I would remind the audience Barack Obama was elected with a House majority and 59 or 60 senate seats (depending on how you count).
In 2002, Republicans gained seats in the House and took control of the Senate. Before that, you have to go back to 1934. Dems gained seats in the House and held even in the Senate (remaining a minority in both) in 1998. In the 15 midterms since 1960, the president’s party has gained seats in the House twice and the Senate four times.
It’s more likely for the party controlling the White House to gain Senate seats while losing House seats than it is to gain seats in both chambers.
Given a favorable Senate map, the most likely outcome in 2022 if the Biden administration is generally decent is probably to lose some House races (but keep the majority) and at least break even in the Senate.
If the Republicans are in disarray over the legacy of Trump, I could see how in-fighting could lead to Republicans under-performing in 2022 and whiffing on winnable seats. Will bitter primaries between anti-Trump and pro-Trump candidates lead to some supporters choosing to sit out a general election or vote third party?
tons of republicans will come out of the woodwork to explain how, despite shittons of evidence to the contrary, they’re decent people and they tried really hard to work against trump
If the landslide happens, then one of the first things that needs to happen is for people to organize primary challengers for 2022. There a lot of very safe D states with senate races.
Schumer and Leahy (and maybe a couple others) need to be the top targets, but even those that are “good” need to be put on notice that if they don’t accomplish anything, their jobs might be on the line.
I feel like the entire situation is different from Obama. Obama wanted to play it safe as the first black president, didn’t want to cause to much division ( LOL ) but I’m hoping Bidens adviers push him to do what needs to be done to save democracy. After Trump they don’t have to respect norms, even moderate dems realize republicans are trying to rig shit and consolidate power. They want action.
If they nuked the filibuster and got a ton of shit done I think 95% of the people who voted for him would cheer.
If they fuck this up and don’t get good shit done like the heros act because they don’t nuke the filibuster then its GG democracy because Reps win back senate and obstruct and they get back to destroying democracy in 2024.
They fucking better get shit done. Otherwise its like stimulus running out before the election. We’re just delaying the suffering and its not really a victory.
I guess they can get the pandemic under somewhat reasonable control until a vaccine which is awesome. I guess I’ll take that as a win before we slide into a theocracy.
I was going to make a thread about pessimism, but this thread’ll do.
I think whatever precarious balance our system had left is gone forever. Even if Biden wins in a landslide the other side will begin all-out war on day one, and they are good at it. Democratic leadership not being ruthless enough is part of the problem, but the bigger problem is that the coalition of different groups that make up Democratic voters aren’t united enough. Too many “Democrats” are concerned about immigration, think COVID-19 isn’t that big of a deal, don’t want “socialism” like M4A, want to keep their guns, and/or are pretty racist and only don’t want to be loud about it.
I don’t know exactly where we’re headed but I think it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
Schumer is up in 2022 and AOC will be 33 years old. It will be interesting to see how “conservative” he behaves if Biden wins and Dems take the senate. I could see him being more progressive in light of a potential AOC run.
The guest in this podcast notes that there isn’t usually a long period of “tit for tat” when a realignment takes place.
Rather, there is a more fundamental reorganization that renders old battles somewhat moot. I don’t think the dems need to worry about republican retaliation if the dems win and go ham, because there won’t be anything too much like the 2020 GOP in 2030.
Hell, the second TX flips, the GOP will be screaming bloody murder to abolish the electoral college. If Biden wins and the dems take the senate, shits gonna get kinda wild for the next 5 years. (That said, I am skeptical that the dems will eliminate the filibuster if they don’t get like 54 senate seats, which is unlikely.)