I hear you saying you’re anxious about rolling the dice.
Yeah, exactly. If the goal is to destabilize the current regime so it falls, what happens next? I have no idea and doubt most of the people advocating for this know either.
Russia will get the same kind of alligator swamp leader they have had for the last 400 years after Putin is gone.
Hoping for a good guy is pointless, all their institutions that hold power are full of alligators.
The best we can hope for is gorbachev 2.0
Well, right now we’re dealing with a cruel dictator with delusions of grandeur and imperial aspirations, but a coup could be anything. It could even produce a cruel dictator with delusions of grandeur and imperial aspirations, and you know how much we’ve always feared Russia having one of those.
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It could also start a nuclear war, but who cares about that.
It could stop a nuclear war, but who cares about that.
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Kinda hard to imagine Putin getting overthrown by somebody who wants to escalate the war.
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Agreed, otherwise you wouldn’t overthrow him. It’d have to be a revolution with some sort of reactionary comeback.
We’re well into nuclear war territory now. I’ll take my chances with not-Putin.
Either of them still has to get a bunch of individuals in the chain of command under them to actually launch the missiles.
Doves try to do a coup, kill Putin, hardliners do a successful counter coup. But I don’t have any idea what sort of factions are afoot in Moscow. Sounds like you guys have it figured out though so I can rest easy.
It’s the power vacuum after that is scary. Even if the people that topple him are ok, the big risk is that they won’t be able to hold power. And then even if they do hold power you could have some local warlords trying to make their mark by seizing nuclear weapons.
We went through this exact scenario after the break-up of the USSR with everyone worried about the security of their nuclear arsenal.
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I mean, you can accuse us of thinking we have it all figured out, but our actual thesis is that you don’t know shit either, and that leaving Putin in power to do whatever the fuck he wants isn’t some safe, uncertainty-free proposition.
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lol that’s your thesis? I’ve been saying all along in this thread that I don’t know anything about Russian politics, Russian power structures, what the Russians’ actual war plans or war aims are, or how the actual results in Ukraine conform with or deviate from those plans and aims. So if you generated this “thesis” by reading my posts and noticing that’s what I said, well, congratulations I guess. My point isn’t that I know anything, it’s pointing out that none of you guys who want to overthrow Putin know anything either. Including what Russia would look like or do after Putin’s regime falls.
I feel like the saving grace could be that the Russian public has had very recent freedoms and taste of Western consumerist living, and seem to like it. They want what Ukraine has, a Western way of life, which ironically could be one of the biggest reasons Putin felt he had to invade.
IE - we’re not talking about Iraq with religion=govt tendencies, and a million old religious/tribal grudges that had been suppressed by a brutal dictator for decades.
Like literally all the next leader has to do is not be an empire-building paranoid nutjob. The West will bend over backwards to help them rebuild the economy. People happy, leader happy. The leader can still skim $billions. Basically what Putin had all laid out for him. It seems like the path of least resistance?
Just need to find a Russian leader who will join EU/NATO/SEC
maybe they can find a Russian leader who will join the EU right after they find the British leader who will join the EU.
I don’t think a single person has claimed to know anything about what Russia would look like after a coup, only that they think the chances of better outcomes are better if there were to be one, mainly because Putin is terrible, because if there were a coup it would be more likely to have been instigated by someone opposed to Putin’s war in Ukraine than in favor of it, and because if there were a coup the successor would probably have to focus on consolidating domestic power which would likely be combined with deemphasizing military presence in Ukraine so as to use them achieve that. Not sure why you think you have to limit discussion on what possibilities there are on this discussion forum to people with specific knowledge of what will happen.
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This all sounds like a job for the CIA.
I’m not limiting discussion, I’m saying that I think trying to destabilize the Russian regime with the goal of fomenting a coup or revolution is a totally insane policy.
professional class is literally fleeing russia right now. 3 million refugees from ukraine, all in all, you can probably add at least 500k if not more from russia in the coming months.
by comparison all of the 90s there was an estimated 500k russian immigrants to the US. total immigration from russia was at least 2x higher.