Based on what?
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putin is destabilizing himself. whatever you think cia can do to support a coup, it would be already be in progress
Presumably some of them would come back to a stable non-oppressive Russian govt.
Based on the thousands of deployed nuclear weapons that the current regime in Moscow controls. Who controls them before a coup, during the coup, after the coup? I don’t know how Russian nuclear command and control works. I don’t know how it would work during or after a coup or revolution. Doesn’t seem like a good idea to find out.
I’m happy to let this conversation continue a bit more here as I’m with my daughter at a playground, but if it continues to dominate the thread, I’ll move to the discussion on WWW3 thread when I get back home so this thread can stay more news focused.
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Right now, they’re controlled by a murderous dictator with imperial aspirations who seems perfectly happy slaughtering civilians when military objectives are more difficult to attain. Definitely sounds risk free compared to any alternative!
You forgot already making nuclear threats.
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Yeah and if he thinks he’s in the middle of a CIA-backed coup is he more or less likely to carry out those nuclear threats? Opinions differ!
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Seems like he thinks that’s a real possibility already given him firing his staff and etc. Putin is destabilization all on his own, with no help from anyone else, and has all the same risks that comes with a coup.
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a post putin russia would be torn apart by local protests. some probably extremist and some will have ethnic components, but most protests would be against the corrupt governors and mayors who are a part of putin’s vertical of power. the federal siloviki cpuld simply become overwhelmed, meaning that several regions will effectively breakaway, hold their own elections, and start preparing in case a new czar eventually comes with tanks. russia itself has a huge demand for local democratic elections, and they will be successful in some places, with observers, open registration of candidates, debates, etc. it probably has to start at the grass roots level like that, to eventually hold federal elections fairly.
Oh ok if all the risks of a coup are already present then you’re right, there’s no risk. Good point.
why do I ever bother?
Well, I think the confusion is that I don’t want the CIA to lead the coup, that would indeed be very dumb and almost certainly backfire.
Think most rooting for the coup are hoping it will happen organically as a result of Putin being exposed as a dumb, weak loser who started a catastrophic war that fucked over his country.
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dunno ikes, but you’ve got the patience of a saint
You don’t need certainty about what will happen if Putin is removed, you just need some confidence that the average of the range of possibilities of Putin is removed is a clear improvement over the current status quo.
Whose goal are you talking about? If the West’s collectively then that isn’t necessarily the goal even if a lot of people think that’s a desirable outcome. The actions taken against Putin so far weaken him internationally but in some ways strengthen him within Russia. I feel like regime change isn’t really much more likely but if it happens it’s more likely to be ugly.
Anyway, as I write this, Putin’s saying everything’s going according to plan. So no worries.
Edit: thread moves too fast for me and is some other thread now damnit.
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I can’t imagine that if Putin takes the balcony retirement package the world would be worse off than it is now.
Some are arguing a worst version of Putin would emerge?
I highly doubt it. Blood thirsty vampires are loving this war, why would they throw Putin out.
Only someone that wants this war to end is thinking about a coup.
Same as WW2. Only the people that wanted WW2 to end and to negotiate a peace conspired to assassinate Hitler.
The idea that Russia will always be a rogue evil empire, and we should just let them dominate their neighbors, seems like such a depressing worldview.
It seems like this view can only be palatable if you believe people everywhere are dominated, and we in the West are just are just tricked into putting up it with flashy consumer gadgets. Or some similar rationalization to the effect that life isn’t that much worse for the average Belarusian than it is for the average American.
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