The craziest part about Hellmuth’s success in my eyes is that he somehow also keeps ‘answering’ his critcs in a way. They used to say he’s only winning large field NLH events against amateurs. So he started winning a lot more in mixed games. Then a lot more in high stakes tournaments. Then in the HU SnG’s series on PokerGO. The only format he constantly failed at is deep stack cash games.
I still think the most probable explanation is that he’s the luckiest poker player in history, but i’m open to other suggestions.
As long as people start playing the same more and more over time which they are (preflop charts, GTO, etc), then the biggest edge is reading when they are bluffing or not.
I don’t think I would take that bet, but I would take Phil’s side in an “every WSOP event 10k or less” package where you are selling his action at even.
I don’t particularly like Phil Hellmuth and understand that most pros think he’s a fish in high stakes cash games, but to say he’s a bad poker player is insane. Sorry, he’s not lapping the field in WSOP bracelets because he’s just the luckiest guy on Earth.
I’m not saying he’s the GOAT overall poker player or something, but he’s clearly a good player, particularly in tournaments.
million dollar idea: pay a poker pro to play in your local home game. kinda like how you used to be able to pay a pro golfer to be part of your foursome. who wouldn’t drop $50k to have Phil join the local .50-1 dealers choice for 5 hours?
I dunno, if someone can come up with something reasonable I’d probably do it. It’s hard to do a 50-50 bet on tourneys because the tail is way longer on one end and rare results make up a huge chunk of your EV.
Maybe Phil gets a top X result at WSOP2024? Not sure what would be reasonable, I think even money is probably between 2nd and 3rd. I think I would take 3rd, with the caveat that he has to play 20+ events.