How’s this for a working theory?
This Bryan guy has a gambling problem, and he’s regularly donking off money in poker games and baccarat pits. He has access to hole card info and decides this is a great way to solve his financial problems. He meets Robbi somewhere along the way, maybe in a mid-stakes cash game around LA? 5/10 or 10/20 or 20/40 or something? He thinks, hmm, she can play a little, she’s an attractive woman, we can definitely get her in the game. Or maybe it goes through Rip to find Robbi, who knows?
Either way they cut a deal, they set it up, they test the system out the first night but don’t really use it. They come back to use it the second night, but they’re not really getting any big opportunities.
Then the J4 hand happens, and he’s signaling her that she’s ahead, but she fucks up and opens the door for Garrett to rip it in over the top. She could have just double floated and bluffed river, or jammed turn herself, but she is a mediocre poker player who made a bad decision. Now Garrett rips it in, and this guy has a choice… He can signal her that she’s ahead or to call or whatever, and they gamble getting the right price but in a super suspicious way. If she wins, she’s up $170K and he gets a cut of that. If she loses, she’s down $100K but that’s not his problem. Or they can fold, she can be +$9K, and he has his cut of that.
He’s got what? 20 seconds to make that decision? In this theory he’s got a gambling problem, after all, so he’s like fuck it, we may not get a better chance by the end of the night. Plus, it’s September 29. Bills are due in a day or two.
She calls, doesn’t play it off well, and then all hell breaks loose. She gives the money back, tells him he’s not getting his cut of that $135K because they got called out and she wants it to go away, but that’s not an option for him because he has money problems. So fuck it, he steals the $15K off her stack. Maybe he knows he’s getting fired, but he needs the money and what’s she gonna do, rat him out and go down with him?
Now on the other side, HCL/Hustler probably know within 2-3 hours of him stealing the chips that he stole the chips, if not immediately. Feldman or Vertucci tells Gman they’re getting more and more evidence, he’s for sure right, and to lay low while they smoke them out…
Meanwhile, they’re reviewing surveillance tapes of him in the production room, his comings and goings for probably days/weeks leading up to this on surveillance tapes. Possibly getting tapes from other LA casinos/poker rooms too. While that’s going on, Robbi gives a million interviews thinking she got away with it, and then they approach her with this “totally unrelated” theft to get her on the record that she never met the guy.
Now they go for phone records, scour the surveillance tape, and try to prove that they knew each other and/or were in communication leading up to it.
Feels like it’s going to be some version of that or something similar. Biggest questions to me are whether Rip or someone else was involved, and whether anyone else in production was involved.