So I largely agreed with what Williams is saying in this video, but then I got whiplash at the end (around 1:50) of the video, where (I think) he says, “I’m not saying it’s right, what she did. Of course not. Everyone fucking knows it’s not right.”
Given everything he says up to this point, this seems like a bizarre conclusion. If he thinks she just made a fuck you call because she was sick of being pushed around, what does he think she did wrong?
I think he’s kind of looking at it from the perspective of the games he plays in, which he references.
This is the kind of stuff that used to get people hurt in the old days, uninvited from games in these days, games stop running etc.
Can people with the right attitude/talk pull it off? Sure. But it isn’t what happened.
https://www.reddit.com/r/poker/comments/xw2qit/ryangm_i_found_at_least_2_cards_swapped_from_the/
The RFID technology that we use at HCL only works when the cards are directly over the sensor. Maximum range is less than an inch. The theories about being able to read the RFID technology from far away are complete nonsense. There are other RFID use cases where the technology is designed to have a more powerful range and emitter, but that is not the case here. The deck and card reader system are specifically designed this way for obvious reasons. Anyone suggesting otherwise just doesn’t understand what they’re talking about. I’ve seen lots of cool theories flying around, but those are just
And obviously, reading the whole deck at once is absolutely
impossible
this pretty much blows more than half of the theories out of the water, im sure some new ones will pop up now, i think the conspiritards are now moving on to the necklace
Nik Airball needs to STFU. I’m out
Man that micros clip sure hit the nostalgic feels.
The Raven episode was an absolute work of art. I got a good laugh rewatching it.
https://twitter.com/RealKidPoker/status/1577815727104368641?s=20&t=KORU9fU5M56F7jvjBbcESQ
https://twitter.com/jessefullen/status/1577822935863087104?s=20&t=KORU9fU5M56F7jvjBbcESQ
Alright, I’m down to 85% likelihood of cheating. David Williams made one very good point that moved me off 95%, which I’ll get to. Kind of responding to this clip in order as much as possible. Disagree with part, agree with part, but I think it’s good discussion overall.
I think he’s saying it’s not strategically right, but I dunno.
I think his take is largely valid, in that I recognize it as a legitimate and intelligent opposing viewpoint that made me reconsider part of my view, with one exception I disagree with strongly. A lot of people who ARE invited to games like that DO think it was cheating.
He says, “To think it was cheating because of one fucking hand because of what an amateur did shows that you fucking have no idea how these fucking high stakes games go. If you look at the people saying it, it’s the people that would never get invited to these games.”
Gman thinks it was cheating, and obviously he’s biased, but he’s not in that game just for being a superstar. He’s friendly, he gets along with people, he’s a good loser and a good winner, and he is fair and respectable. That’s why he’s been so respected (at least up until now, when people became very split about his response).
Dwan is leaning heavily towards cheating, and he’s in some of the biggest private games in the world in a completely different culture. That takes more than poker skills to pull off, he’s clearly befriended some people and made himself welcome in certain games.
He criticizes Deeb, who listen, maybe David wouldn’t invite him, and full stop I’ve played with Shaun and he was a prick to me personally in my experience so I’m not the biggest fan based on one encounter, but he gets into selective private/streamed/televised games so clearly action players have fun with him. (I’ve also played w/ David, who was a friendly and respectable guy, fwiw.)
On a lower level in terms of stakes and the opposite of a live stream (basements and spare rooms), I’ve been in seven iterations of private games that I can recall - four in casinos, three in home games. One involving famous (non-poker) people that I organized a few times, the others just with 95% recs who own businesses/are wealthy and such, so like I “get it” as far as building or being invited to games and being a fun person and giving action even as a pro.
I’ve also made three T high calls (won 2/3) and one 9 high call (97 high < 98 high on 65XXX when he either had a set or a draw), and none were “because fuck you” like he said. Granted, I’m not a rec, but pros call those hands when they actually make sense, and recs tend to be calling them in two categories: A high/K high/bottom pair type fuck you calls, or I have a draw so fuck it and fuck you type calls. Like if Robbi has QJ or J8 here, we’re not having this conversation, right? It has some equity, it’s not drawing dead unless he’s boated, it beats/chops with significantly more of the bluffs. We’ll raise an eyebrow, in Gman’s shoes maybe keep an eye on her on stream going forward, but no accusations are made. We’ve all seen that kind of call-off.
I’ve also played with some recs who play what we would all consider CRAZY poker. I’ve played with famous people making $20 million a year who smirk, wink, and dump a couple grand to you at the end of the night because fuck it, you were a nice guy who helped them organize a fun night with their crew and they’d rather give you the money than stand in line 5 minutes to cash out what amounts to pocket change. I’ve played with business owners who punt all the time, who never fold an open ender, who make fuck you plays and never fold equity because fuck you I want to see your face when I hit my gutshot… Or fuck you players who never fold anything because fuck you what’s $5,000 when you’re approaching three commas of net worth and this is a 5/T/20 game… I’ve seen the fuck you 42o 4-bet/call 500bb deep, followed by raising the gutshot on the flop and blasting the turn and then drilling it. But, I mean, it was equity at least! And sure I lost sleep for a few nights on that one over whether there was any chance there was some kind of cheating, but I never accused the person, never spoke a word of it other than to one friend/confidant, and eventually settled on no, it was straight up, he jumped out the window and got there.
But fuck man, I’ve never seen a hand like THIS. If David’s in big games where THIS is normal, he’s probably the biggest winning cash game player in poker right now.
Now, all that said I thought David made one extremely good point with regards to sexism. I don’t think there’s sexism at play in regard to a lot of the poker community suspecting cheating - I think that would be the case regardless of the gender of someone making this play. But he pointed out that her worrying about sexism might make her more likely to change her story/lie about what happened because it’s a male dominated field and she doesn’t want to be called the “dumb girl who can’t read her hand.”
So I’ll drop down from 95% to 85% based on that. It’s a good point, I’m sure we’ve all seen that kind of sexism at the table before, and I hadn’t factored that part in because most talk of sexism had been in regards to the accusations in this specific spot, not the spot that comes up if she immediately fesses up to misreading her hand.
Part of what makes it all suspect to me is her reaction, and that’s a valid reason an innocent person in her shoes might react weirdly. And in fairness, if she truly misread her hand and admitted it, a not insignificant (I dunno, 15%? 25%?) of the poker world would say sexist shit and trash her for it.
So I’ve shifted a bit, but I’m still overwhelmingly leaning towards something being wrong about this.
I don’t know what to tell you if you dont see sexism all over this thing
I’ll tune into anything with Robbi or Mikki. I’m sure she’ll be a massive draw going forward, but I doubt she’ll have the BR/backing to play in these bigger games for very long.
I’d like to hear an RFID expert confirm that range can be dictated by the RFID chip and not just the reader, as their readers could have a 1 inch range but a 3rd party reader might have a longer range. That would make me feel way better about game security in general, and also eliminate a lot of theories.
That said, the swapped cards theory would make some sense in a scenario where the card readers were hacked, but not the graphics software. Each RFID card has a numbered code, say 15723 is the Ac, 18323 is the Ad, etc. The RFID only gives off the numbered sequence, the reader reads it, and the graphics software maps it to a hole card and then produces graphics. If someone managed to hack the readers, then mapped the deck themselves and screwed up the switch when the 4h and 6c were swapped out and mapped incorrectly by the hacker, they might have had her cards as Jc6c instead of Jc4h. All of a sudden it’s a somewhat normal “fuck you” call that doesn’t draw attention to the cheaters.
I wouldn’t say this changes my % but it’s definitely something the investigators should look at.
I see plenty of sexist comments within this thing, and I think the non-poker media has picked it up more because a woman is involved. But I don’t think the controversy within the poker community would be any less significant if it were a man. The Robbi thread is at 178K views on 2p2, Postle got like 2.1M., and HCL is a much more prominent and higher stakes stream than Stones was.
Rich whales putting women into games because they want to play poker and spend time with them is also a thing.
I played a few times with a local billionaire who was basically Epstein. They are literally in prison right now for trafficking.
Home games around them would 25/50 before straddles etc and sometimes 2 of the seats would be women they’ve bought in.
Unfortunately too rich for my blood.
They obviously weren’t good enough to play those stakes!
I haven’t seen that firsthand, but the difference in this case is Robbi clearly isn’t a total newcomer. Other hands she played indicate she understands reasonable preflop ranges, relative value of top pair based on board/kicker, etc.
The 4h was swapped in one deck and the 6c was swapped in a second deck. No way they could have thought the new 4h was the 6c or else their cheating software would have shown two 6c in the same deck.
Right, but he could be in on the scam too!
Except that there’s only ONE hand being talked about here. With Postle there were weeks of hands to analyze and talk about
The Postle hand that stuck out to me was him folding the second nuts that lost to one combo, which seems similarly crazy to this. If you dropped this hand into the Postle sample, it’d be near the top of the list.
The lack of sample size is a large reason this is likely to end without much agreement on the outcome. If Garrett stays quiet and she plays a few more times, it may become more clear to the community at large - but if she is cheating he and others could lose 7 figures by then.
“I’d reduce my confidence to 60%” wins the thread for me. Shut the thread down. I like CW a lot as a poster, but man, talk about marrying yourself to a position.
Berkey, Doug, and Joey reviewing all available tapes, surveillance, and feed and finding nothing combined with a full cyber security investigation turning up nothing and he’d STILL bet on cheating? Classic.
“I’d reduce my confidence to 60%” needs to become a meme.
A) They let everyone leave without searching anyone. The only way they’re finding any potential cheating devices is if they pulled them out in the open on camera, or that bulge in her pants was a device that can be seen from other angles.
B) Not finding anything is different from saying they can conclude nothing happened. We don’t know how much logging was done on the back end, or whether there would even be proof after the fact of a hack of a shuffle machine or RFID readers.
If they said there would be proof and there is none, I’d go lower. If all that comes of it is that they couldn’t find proof, the hand remains strong enough evidence on its own.
