With 2 callers on flop, and no flush draw odds both are on draws is low, so bigger bet to get value from a ten seems fine.
Negreanu needs to get the turn bet through half the time to bluff any two. So they each have to defend approx 25% of their range.
Patrick bet less than half pot on the flop and conceivably can have 9x, Tx, and draws on top of some relative air bdfd cbets. He’s also got overpairs. Just continuing boats and Tx probably isn’t going to do it.
Ivey is probably even wider closing the action on the flop.
Plus once Ivey calls turn, Antonius is getting 3 to 1 on a call.
Undeniably the worst play of the hand.
My guess is that Negreanu addresses it on the next DAT Poker Pod if it hasn’t dropped yet.
Probably. Seems like he’s also going to do a utoob about the hand. He has worked something out w/ PokerGO where they’ll let him pick out a few interesting hands and break them down on his channel. He has a few hands from high stakes poker up there already.
https://twitter.com/RealKidPoker/status/1526381295089045504?t=SuCytnQL6t50aSBuxwp2lw&s=19
Yes, it’s pretty common - at least for the low stakes tournaments I used to play. Lots of people would just offer to equally chop. I’ve even seen situations where people were willing to give equal share to guys with tiny stacks (or maybe a tiny haircut).
It’s especially true for regular tournaments where a lot of the players know each other. Just be aware if you demand your chip equity when chip lead, you’ll get some flack. I found it was best to never offer to chop and only accept chops in my favor, or close to EV. When chip lead I would just say I wanted to play it out. In tournaments where norm was to do equal chop people seemed fine with you saying no to chopping, but not to demanding full chip equity.
Oh and btw for the record, when facing a bet too large to continue a draw comfortably as a call, you can put it into a raising range assuming you can have one. But if there’s enough money behind you can conceivably call a PSB.
https://twitter.com/ChadAHolloway/status/1526596660759080961?s=20&t=1ypWqIALtj2d81JivojohQ
I still occasionally reread his PL/NL book written with Stewart Reuben.
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i’m watching a bit of the hellmuth seiver dumb hu format and i have to say this might be the least bad i’ve seen hellmuth plays.
granted i don’t know shit about hu nl holdem and these random spots he picks to go 3b/b/b/b with T4o are probably bad but they are better than what he does in any other format.
This is probably the key point of the hand. Daniel just doesn’t think a value raise with worse than his holding is much of a possibility. I honestly thought Patrik was debating between fold/call and was surprised when he raised.
Patrik and Ivey had been playing insanely nitty up to that point which changes the dynamics of the hand quite a bit. If it had been vs 2 pros not playing like they’re on their case money, the hand plays out way differently.
Having watched it now, I think it’s pretty clear Negreanu doesn’t think Antonius would play 55 that way. Do we buy Gabe’s commentary that QQ is a possibility?
My guess is that Negreanu will say that the solvers say 55 is not a raise there according to the solvers, that Antonius should have bet the turn (then bet-folded the river?), and that Antonius played poorly because he’s been spending too much time beating up on bad players and got into some bad habits, which suggests that playing 55 that way is probably the correct exploit against some player profiles.
I think checking the turn with 55 is bad against almost every player type. QQ feels kind of unlikely when Negreanu pots it and Ivey calls.
Do you bet against a player who will usually fold straight draws if you bet the turn but bet those draws if you check because he puts you AK/AQ as the preflop raiser?
No but that’s a pretty rare read, and you can often size your bet to make sure the draws continue. The key in Antonius’s spot is that if the BB has Tx and wants to x/r, you’ve got to give them the chance when you have 55. That may not be a thing with these specific players but against a lot of villians it’s a thing.
I wonder if Antonius was afraid of Ivey. Maybe he decided that Negreanu was betting the turn with 100% or range when checked to, or close to that, and was planning to check-raise until Ivey called. Once Ivey drops on the river, he sees raising as an option again.
Was Ivey wrong to call the flop? Antonius shouldn’t have air with this many people. I don’t think Negreanu folds if Ivey had folded then.
Was Dwan sincere or needling when he said he thought Negreanu was right?
A little strange from both Daniel and Patrick but not totally unreasonable. Daniel’s preflop call was from the button so it may include some weird Txs or KJo, and maybe Patrick felt Daniel was too priced in to fold to a shove (but probably a bit greedy imo). So if shoving 55 is at least a little bad, and opponent is a world class player who doesn’t generally make bad plays, from Daniel’s perspective you beat no value hands and facing bluffs in this spot would be completely wild. I just empathize with Daniel here since I’m not at all in the “call on principle, my hand is too good” camp.
Very unlikely.
No.
He can still have a bunch of draws or a weaker T and sometimes he’ll have a 9.
Sincere.
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What do we think of Daniels river sizing? Feels like Antonius didn’t think Daniel would use that sizing with a boat.
I’m gonna go ahead and guess that if you gave a multi-way solver reasonable ranges pre and this f/t/r action that it would have much wider x/r and b/c ranges than 55+ and 99+, and obviously it would have bluffs too. Solvers are much more tricky and trappy in general than irl players.