Substantially all poker personalities being shameless crypto scam endorsers is pretty disappointing if not surprising.
you are really committed to this
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This is a truly insane fold.
https://twitter.com/pokernews/status/1526403113099448321?s=21&t=CrcO_B4cypZmcjzlG9UCDQ
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Player commentary at the end is good, too.
Nah he’s just very opinionated and genuinely likes discussing his views. He’s a lot like Joe Rogan, not as toxic though.
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Very interesting hand. Daniel’s fold is suboptimal but doesn’t seem crazy. Pretty much every hand in Patrick’s range before the river raise is trips+ (i.e. has showdown value, less incentive to bluff).
So it’s a situation on the river where Patrick is very likely to be value raising, and for him to be value raising correctly, he needs to have at least a hand that beats Daniel’s river value range of AT and boats, so really he should have better than 5’s.
The fold is still highly unoptimal, because if you consider that Phil clearly folded Tx, then Patrick can always just raise the case T and Daniel will always fold 100% of the time if he folds 99 there.
PS: Sorry if the “c” in “Patrick” is tilting anybody; it’s autocorrect on mobile.
What is possibly surprising about this?
Some truly galaxy brain shit from Daniel. The fanciest of fancy play syndrome. “I almost checked the river” lololololol. Dude is supposed to be a pro, just the most hilarious shit in the world.
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It’s a bad fold because he’s getting better than 3-to-1, and Phil obviously folded a T. In hand he thought Phil folded 55 somehow, which then leaves pretty much nothing for Patrick to have that he beats.
If you ignore Phil completely and give Antonius full houses+ he’s got 3 55, 2 T9 if you give him offsuit, one TT, and 6 QT if you give him offsuit. So you’re priced in barely at 25%.
If Phil folded a T, it becomes 3 55, 1 T9, 3 QT. You’re good 43%.
If Phil folded 55, you’re just always dead. 0%.
So you need Phil to have folded a T instead of 55 something like 60% of the time. Ignoring that 55 is harder to fold in the first place, he has 3 combos of 55. In the BB, he probably has ATo, KTo, JTo, T8o, T7o, and T6s. So 34 combos of Tx, so like 91.8% of the time for combos and more like 95% of the time when adjusting for the fact that he may not fold 55 as often…
So basically Daniel should expect to win here something like 41% of the time. He had to call $99K more and had $168K of equity, so this was about a $69K mistake.
Now of course all that is based on the premise that Antonius always jams 55. In reality he is probably supposed to just call it, because how often is he getting called by worse? So if he’s only jamming it half the time, instead of winning 3 out of 7 times you’re winning 1.5 out of 5.5 for 27% and now it gets much closer.
I guess the other question is like how often does Ivey get here with J8 and fold the river in the same agonizing fashion? That changes everything.
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If I were a famous poker pro I wouldn’t endorse a shitcoin, but I’d have no qualms about endorsing Bitcoin, Ethereum, OpenSea, a reputable crypto platform, etc. No matter how obvious it seems to you that these are all bullshit worthless scams, a ton of people think they’re worth quite a bit. Some of us think that the shitcoins are worthless and these are worth something, and we’re not abject morons.
They’re not scammers for endorsing stuff in the crypto space in general. But I don’t know what the fuck Bitcoin Latinum is and I assume it’s some bullshit.
If Daniel is going to fold to a raise there, he has to check the river. You have to commit to calling if you bet. He should have considered what he would do if raised before he bet. Lapse of focus cost him.
I like bet/call better than check, but don’t hate the check. Bet/fold is just terrible though.
Patrick’s raise seems terrible.
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There are plenty of spots in poker where bet/fold > bet/call > check. This one’s a super close spot but checking back seems really bad if he can get called by a T or a straight, and 55, which he can.
Checking back is laughably bad. Bet/fold is also terrible, I’m not quite sure which is worse in this spot though.
He only folds this because he pots the turn like a moron so when 2 call he removes all draws that coincidentally have 0% equity (this seems really bad!!!) and most tens from their ranges.
If he bets 16k on the turn like a normal person he never gets blown off this. Derp derp derp.
Speaking of bad decisions, just started playing live poker again, and a weird situation came up last night. $100 tourney, 75 entries, and we’re down to 5. Player A knocks out 2 players at once to become chipleader with about 150bb and make it 3 handed. I have about 10bb, and player B has about 100bb.
Player B proposes an even 3 way chop, and player A insta-agrees even before I can say anything. Obviously I agree, but what the hell were they thinking? Is this common in low buy-in live events, or just an especially fishy gift to me?
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The turn sizing seems fine to me. If they fold all their draws, they’re probably making a mistake.
It’s obviously a huge gift to you, but it’s not super uncommon in low buyin events when not a ton of money is involved. I’ve been offered some really absurd deals in live single table satties.
Calling a psb with 1 to come on a draw on a top card paired board is absolutely incinerating money.