Negreanu makes the case that he thought about checking the river because it is the worst value hand in his range. I bet the river but I think you have to be capable of considering checking if you want to be a deep thinker about poker.
He never considered 55 because PA should not be bluffing and should know that he’s not getting value from worse hands. DN has a polarized range where 55 functions as a bluff-catcher. PA’s bluffs should be Tx hands which block boats, which DN says PA will underbluff with.
As I predicted, DN said PA said he was used to playing against bad players after the hand as an explanation for why he over-played his hand that way.
Negreanu didn’t know that players were going back to the truck to see hands, so he was bothered when Dwan said he knew what the hands were.
Daniel’s explanation, which boils down to “I thought he was a good player,” doesn’t make sense. If Patrik is playing theoretically sound poker, he will turn Tx into a bluff sufficiently often that 99 is a clear call. If Daniel folds 99, then he is literally folding every single hand in his range when Patrik holds a T (because Ivey clearly had the only other T in the deck). That cannot be a theoretically sound play. Maybe it’s a decent exploitative fold, but he’s trying to pass it off as if his fold is theoretically correct against a “good player.”
I wonder if Daniel really assuming Antonius is an old school abc player and actually not bluffing enough but he doesn’t want to say that for political reasons. Of the people in the hand I would guess Daniel is by far most likely to be closest to balanced.
I’m not sure what point you’re making replying to me with these. It still doesn’t make sense. He’s saying “I thought Patrik was a good player who couldn’t have 55, but also not a good player because he never bluffs a hand that purely blocks the nuts because it has showdown value.” Like ok, then you’re basically saying you made a soul read on his exact player type and were wrong. What kind of defense is that?
Probably pretty close to the truth tho. Patrik never bluffs there and he is considerably worse than we assumed based on his play on HSP this year and shoved because he has a full house.
Like i didnt read all of it but if DN is basically saying i thought patrik was standard bad and apparently he’s lolbad it makes sense to me
I’d have no issue if that’s what Daniel was driving at, but it bugged me in the video when he says something like “I’ve analyzed this for dozens of hours and if I had to play the hand again, I would make the exact same fold.” Like no, dude, you made an exploitative fold assuming a wrong thing about your opponent. You should definitely adjust after learning what he had.
He’s saying that he thinks Patrik’s flaws include underbluffing in this spot, partly because it is hard to find bluffs here when all reasonable bluffs have shown value when Daniel is betting a polarized range, but did not think those flaws include overvaluing hands against strong ranges.
He’s probably right, at least based on what we saw from Ivey and Antonius this season. They hardly even semi-bluff/bluff anymore, practically just fit or fold players. Antonius seemed to show a bit more aggression once he won the big pot w/55, but they both seem like scared money here.
I was pretty surprised Antonius even raised here. Honestly thought he was debating between call/fold.
I’m sure people aren’t all that interested but just for completion the final results
Total time 20hr26min
Total profit $3401
Hourly Rate $166.44
Fully paid for my holiday with a bit to spare ty yanks!
I think someone wanted to know the hotel details so here it is. I didn’t stay here so can’t speak to that every non dominican citizen I met at the hard rock seemed pretty obnoxious so if that’s you then maybe you’ll like it. I stayed at the Royalton Bavaro nearby which was a bit more family friendly and really great imo.
Thanks for the link. I never met him, or even heard of him before today, but I opened up a few threads to read them. This one had me laughing a few times:
This is like the crossover era of 2p2. You still have a lot of really good players posting there, but also plenty of trolling and overly confident stupidity.
Every now and then I like to go back and read strategy from the poker boom GOATs who have good minds to see how they used to analyze spots.
Brag: I think I like his line.
Beat: He didn’t give results.
Variance: Some mildly entertaining fighting.
