My read is that villain 1 only bets if he thinks he has one board on lockdown. He won’t lead out with a wheel with no redraws and nothing on the other board. He’s more likely to be calling the flop with Txxx and nothing on board 2 (which he’s always check-calling the flop with) than calling with a wheel draw and nothing on board 1. I think he actual folds the latter, so a conservative estimate is that he has T9 75% of the time.
He whines a lot about how I never pay him off when he has the nuts, but I also pick off his bluffs often enough to annoy him, so I think I have a good read on how he plays.
Villain 2 is a calling station who is aware that V1 only bets into several players if he’s very strong. He always has a wheel because he would have bet Txxx or 55xx on the flop. He would call the flop with a hand like AK99, but he’d also just call the turn with that hand. He would chase half the pot with a weak draw. He’s one of the fish the game is built around.
These are regs who I have played over 1000 hours with, so I am super confident in my reads.
lol, NBZ idk why you post these types of hands in here over and over again. We get it, you make a bunch of weak tight plays that are always right based on your immaculate hand reading skills. There’s not really any value in it for anyone else, but I guess if you’re just shit posting or doing a bit then carry on.
Line check. I’ve been pretty aggro. 2/5NL $1300 effective stacks.
Villain is a young guy, decent player, no history together, seems pretty tight and not really splashing around. He raises to 25 from mid position, one call, I make it 100 on the button with KK.
Flop is 10 5 2 rainbow, I bet 100, he calls.
Turn: 9, puts out a backdoor flush possibility, I bet 250, he thinks for a bit and calls.
River: offsuit Q. Not the best card, but we get checked to, what are we thinking on this river? Shove? Check back? small bet?
Every one of your spots against the vast majority of opponents who do things like make bluffs and bet without the nuts is a call, unless you know exactly what they have, which you always do, and can hero fold. So there’s not really any point to discussing ranges and probabilities if you know 100% what everyone has.
Hmmm, you’ve got a little less than a pot sized bet left assuming I did the math right. I think betting small is probably okay unless he’s the kind of player that can put in a bluff x/r here with a decent frequency, but I’m not a huge fan of it. You can probably get paid by AQ (w/ bdfd so 1 combo lol)/AT/KT/KQ/QJ/maybe JJ/JT. Of course you do block 2 of those combos really well so that’s not ideal and if he starts x/ring it’s really shitty. Shoving probably folds out the Tx combos so you’re left getting called by AQ/KQ/maybe QJ and then everything that beats you so I don’t like that.
Honestly I think I’m fine getting 2 streets of value and then checking back river here. I think far enough from the top of your range in this spot that not getting 3 streets is okay.
Well I got votes for a check back, a small bet, and a jam, so all options seem to be in play.
I did opt for the jam. At the time I thought it was kinda thin, but I’d shown down a decent bluff earlier so I thought I might get called a little light. Checking back felt too nitty. Villain thought for a little bit, said I can’t fold this, and called with a slow played AA. Hmm. Value owned myself. In theory I think this was fine though, but my live reads were a little off in this one.