Maybe I should have posted in this thread. Player folds kk to an open and 3bet shove pre on the bubble of the WSOP main event.
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Yea your added details make it a little murkier. But anyone who is cutting out greens in stacks of 4 I’d just assume is clueless and I’d give them the benefit of the doubt. Conversely who calls an all in by putting in 4 chips of green at a time?! Of course it’s kinda crappy he didn’t say anything right away but maybe he didn’t realize wtf was going on.
Bomb pot hand that I felt was a trivially easy insta-fold, but maybe someone wants to claim I was playing weak-tight.
I have AT53 with nut diamonds OTB.
Boards are TT5 and AQ5 with one diamond. Checked to me, I bet about 2/3 pot and get four callers.
On the turn, wee have TT95 and AQ54 with two diamonds, giving me the second-nut boat on the first board and two pair with a gutshot and the nut flush draw on the bottom.
Player in one of the blinds pots it. He doesn’t pot it into this many people from EP without the nuts. Player in LP repots. He almost never raises turn or river multiway without the nuts unless doesn’t have that much behind and just wants to get it in.
I muck pretty quickly.
I don’t have the same vitriol for your hands as some, but what’s the point of this hand? You pretty much told us your opponents are playing face up. You’re not looking for advice. You’re looking for validation on your people reading
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Bruce magically finds himself in only low stakes games where the player base are all super tight and only play the nuts. No matter where he goes, no matter the city, he finds himself with the only 9 other players on earth tighter than him.
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I have very little double board experience but I’m definitely potting flop.
This seems bad. Even if your read is 100% right (i.e. both players have the nuts on one board) I still think its EV- to fold.
Since only one player can have T9, one player must have 23xx. That leaves 6 combos of 23 and 3 combos of T9. So you should have 66% both players are chopping board 2 and you have board one essentially locked up (only way you could lose is if someone has either 23Tx or 23 with a pair greater than T). You also have some nice equity on board 2 - any diamond, A or the remaining 5 and you scoop, and a 2 and you have good shot to split.
Not going to do all the math, but seems clear that your EV is greater than 33% - rough estimate is 30% EV on board 2 (depends on how many diamonds dead on board 1) and then say 60% EV on board 1. Factor in the dead money already in pot and chance your read is wrong and seems even worse.
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I thought it was an interesting hand that can be used to explain some of the principles that go into big-bet split-pot games.
They’re not super-tight. They’re passive.
Loose-passive and tight-passive players have similar raising ranges. I’ve seen a lot of players spew with strong non-nut hands calling big bets from loose-passives who never bluff and never value-bet medium strength hands because all they see is a loose player.
Pushing with 23 and no T is bad. There are definitely players that I could find a fold, but your considerable equity on the second board makes it tough, so you’d better have a solid read.
My read is that villain 1 only bets if he thinks he has one board on lockdown. He won’t lead out with a wheel with no redraws and nothing on the other board. He’s more likely to be calling the flop with Txxx and nothing on board 2 (which he’s always check-calling the flop with) than calling with a wheel draw and nothing on board 1. I think he actual folds the latter, so a conservative estimate is that he has T9 75% of the time.
He whines a lot about how I never pay him off when he has the nuts, but I also pick off his bluffs often enough to annoy him, so I think I have a good read on how he plays.
Villain 2 is a calling station who is aware that V1 only bets into several players if he’s very strong. He always has a wheel because he would have bet Txxx or 55xx on the flop. He would call the flop with a hand like AK99, but he’d also just call the turn with that hand. He would chase half the pot with a weak draw. He’s one of the fish the game is built around.
These are regs who I have played over 1000 hours with, so I am super confident in my reads.
Well of course he’s got a good read, his reads are like 100% spot on, every time
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lol, NBZ idk why you post these types of hands in here over and over again. We get it, you make a bunch of weak tight plays that are always right based on your immaculate hand reading skills. There’s not really any value in it for anyone else, but I guess if you’re just shit posting or doing a bit then carry on.
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Line check. I’ve been pretty aggro. 2/5NL $1300 effective stacks.
Villain is a young guy, decent player, no history together, seems pretty tight and not really splashing around. He raises to 25 from mid position, one call, I make it 100 on the button with KK.
Flop is 10 5 2 rainbow, I bet 100, he calls.
Turn: 9, puts out a backdoor flush possibility, I bet 250, he thinks for a bit and calls.
River: offsuit Q. Not the best card, but we get checked to, what are we thinking on this river? Shove? Check back? small bet?
I’d like to spur serious discussion of concepts of split pot games, but maybe that’s above most people here.
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Every one of your spots against the vast majority of opponents who do things like make bluffs and bet without the nuts is a call, unless you know exactly what they have, which you always do, and can hero fold. So there’s not really any point to discussing ranges and probabilities if you know 100% what everyone has.
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I enjoy that Clovis posts similar hands and villains both have like, bottom straight draws.
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You need to consider that T9 combos are much more highly represented in their range because there was flop betting and most 23 combos would fold flop.
295, fold to a raise unless you think they bluff reraise (which lol).
LLSNLers will put you on AK and call all sorts of stupid shit
Yep. We apparently play in two bizzaro worlds.