Yea my one mistake was that I thought he viewed me as a bit looser, when in reality he thought I was a nit if he actually considered ever folding AA there.
I guess the real question is … What hands worse than top pair are in villains range. AT?
In my experience loose players who just love calling (stations) tend to think in terms of absolute value ($900) and not SPR (just a PSB getting 2:1) so not sure how many Tx and JJ they have in their calling range.
Ofcourse YMMV.
Obv this V didn’t even 4bet AA oop so he’s either weak tight or trappy (if he thinks you are the type to blast off with AK here)
He slowplayed because he thought you had lots of air/weak, not because he thought you’d value own yourself.
Stands to reason you should be blasting the second best preflop hand you can have there.
“Second best preflop hand” is a dangerous line of thinking by the time the river rolls off.
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Pocket 8s. Jack ten sooted. Some random sooted gapper that made a pair. Looking to make a play himself with Qx and got there.
Yea, but he actually thought about it on the river, so now I think he’s just weak-tight and I made a bad read and shouldn’t have shoved because there’s not enough hands in his value range to call river.
If he’s trappy and thinks my range is wide, he’s snapping that river
If that’s the case then he should be looking at a max 100-110 bb total pot size with one pair. It can be a reasonable stance but it’s weak and leaves a lot of money on the table.
I think it’s being results oriented. There’s very few weak/sticky guys who know also what they’re doing.
It’s just an uncommon player type. With the info you had I don’t see why you be pretty aggro to just to slam the brakes when you have KK squeezing the button.
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I’m just saying you don’t sit there with KK no flush on a JT986 4 flush board and think “2nd best pf hand, better blast off” right? So why would you do that here?
Because this board is nowhere near as wet and we aren’t allowing for villain to be doing dumb shit and properly punishing it.
Assuming the read of decent is correct, Villain shouldn’t have any offsuit Tx hands calling OOP preflop and only offsuit AQ as far as Qx. No way on earth AQ makes it to the river, so if you actually count combos and don’t do stupid stuff like full weight 88, you will find that KK isn’t even far ahead on this river of Villain’s range for calling the turn.
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A big problem with these kinds of analyses is villains are completely weighted to bring reasonable and competent and solid and that’s so rarely the case.
I have no problem with an overall philosophy of a certain pot size for certain hand strengths and that saves us money here but the player type is atypical IMO.
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Couldn’t agree more. The number one error I see good low/med limit players make is constantly overestimating the skill of their player pool. In my experience, in the average low limit pool 25% of players are absolutely horrible, 55% are bad, 10% are ok, 8% are good (as in play position and think at all about their opponents hands) and 2% are really good (as in counting opponents ranges ect).
It’s possible he checked intending to call, but he thought he detected some sort of tell that you were very confident you had the best hand, so he paused to reevaluate.
Maybe he planned to check-call under the assumption that you would bet smaller and he wasn’t prepared for a shove.
The number one error I see is players overestimating their post flop edge over bad players.
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This is definitely right for random live player, but it’s not “so rarely” when the hero specifically says that “decent” and “tight” is their read. And in this particular case, the analysis of reasonable combos he can have on the river largely depends on preflop range, which you can get a good handle on without much history.
For the record, I’d put myself in the bottom end of the 8% group.
Agree, if it’s just some random dipshit then sure, bombs away here. But there was a specific read given that the guy is competent so I think you have to narrow their calling range and assume they aren’t just gonna x/c down 3 streets with something like 88 on this board for the lulz against the action they’ve faced.
People are card dead for two hours all the time, and even a nit is peeling JTs 3 ways preflop oop with 230 bb effective.
I think he’s way wider here on balance. Him being weird with AA because he’s got all the money brought on the table or whatever justification isn’t enough IMO.
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When I said decent and tight, I meant to imply that he’s not calling my reraises light, especially oop. He’s not splashing around. After thinking about the hand more, I really don’t think there’s enough value calls in his range by the time we get to the river, unless I could get a bit of a hero call (which I did think might be possible at the time - and that was also a poor read in hindsight)
But yea this is obv bombs away against some random opponent
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