Assuming the read of decent is correct, Villain shouldn’t have any offsuit Tx hands calling OOP preflop and only offsuit AQ as far as Qx. No way on earth AQ makes it to the river, so if you actually count combos and don’t do stupid stuff like full weight 88, you will find that KK isn’t even far ahead on this river of Villain’s range for calling the turn.
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A big problem with these kinds of analyses is villains are completely weighted to bring reasonable and competent and solid and that’s so rarely the case.
I have no problem with an overall philosophy of a certain pot size for certain hand strengths and that saves us money here but the player type is atypical IMO.
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Couldn’t agree more. The number one error I see good low/med limit players make is constantly overestimating the skill of their player pool. In my experience, in the average low limit pool 25% of players are absolutely horrible, 55% are bad, 10% are ok, 8% are good (as in play position and think at all about their opponents hands) and 2% are really good (as in counting opponents ranges ect).
It’s possible he checked intending to call, but he thought he detected some sort of tell that you were very confident you had the best hand, so he paused to reevaluate.
Maybe he planned to check-call under the assumption that you would bet smaller and he wasn’t prepared for a shove.
The number one error I see is players overestimating their post flop edge over bad players.
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This is definitely right for random live player, but it’s not “so rarely” when the hero specifically says that “decent” and “tight” is their read. And in this particular case, the analysis of reasonable combos he can have on the river largely depends on preflop range, which you can get a good handle on without much history.
For the record, I’d put myself in the bottom end of the 8% group.
Agree, if it’s just some random dipshit then sure, bombs away here. But there was a specific read given that the guy is competent so I think you have to narrow their calling range and assume they aren’t just gonna x/c down 3 streets with something like 88 on this board for the lulz against the action they’ve faced.
People are card dead for two hours all the time, and even a nit is peeling JTs 3 ways preflop oop with 230 bb effective.
I think he’s way wider here on balance. Him being weird with AA because he’s got all the money brought on the table or whatever justification isn’t enough IMO.
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When I said decent and tight, I meant to imply that he’s not calling my reraises light, especially oop. He’s not splashing around. After thinking about the hand more, I really don’t think there’s enough value calls in his range by the time we get to the river, unless I could get a bit of a hero call (which I did think might be possible at the time - and that was also a poor read in hindsight)
But yea this is obv bombs away against some random opponent
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Part of poker is sometimes our opponents have a better hand. C’est la vie
Our Delta ev is:
+900Pcall and win -900Pcall and lose +0 (Pfold)
If we think we win vs 66% of his range and he calls with all his range that beats you + 50% of the range that loses you we have.
Pcall and win = Pcall and lose = 0.33
So that’s our breakeven. Not sure if you come up with different percentages here but the above would be my ranging for this V making it pretty much marginal.
Does anyone play on Pokerbros and have an in to a good club for low stakes? Like 50NL and below? I see online there are some big clubs or unions but no idea how you get into them.
1/3 with button straddle. Effective stack is 800
I am on button with $6 straddle on.
Utg raises to 20. 2 callers to me.
I call 4d9d
Pot is 84
Flop Qd4s3d
Checked to me
I bet $45
Two calls
Pot is 214
Turn 2c
Checked to me. I check? (Thinking one of the main draws has hit. Not sure about this check)
River 4h
Checked to me. I bet $70.
Call from v1. V2 does the head shake and then all in for $450.
Call or fold?
I think you’re way ahead of Villain 1. I don’t get what V2 is repping with his line here. Any reads?
I’d be inclined to call as your river sizing might have induced this. You look like a meh queen who won’t call here. I do wish our kicker was better though.
As one of my best coaches used to say, “sometimes you just gotta jiggle their retard switch.”
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I’d fold to the river raise, since I can’t see many (any?) worse hands he could be raising for value.
Also, I hate the PF call with less than 130bb effective.
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I think turn check is good. Nut flush draw I might bet, non-nut flush draw is a good check
Also, is either Villain the original raiser pf?
You are folding the button for $14 into a pot of $69 preflop?
No preflop raiser folded to my bet on flop.
I’d rather call heads-up against a single raiser than four-way to the flop.