On the Origins of Covid

[Lawnmower_Man]

WAM

[Churchill]

@Lawnmower_Man

We already did this thread once.

Yes, then the World Health Organisation conducted a visit and made a report, released 7 days ago, at the bequest of the US and Australia.

I don’t give any more than 3% chance to a lab leak but silencing the thread is dumb (Thanks for poppin’ in though)

[anon10396289]

@CaffeineNeeded

Frankly, I shouldn’t be wasting my time with a dishonest, uneducated and obviously not here to learn person like you. This is day five of you posting straight up garbage. Yesterday you went all in on them finding the animal right away when new literature showed they didn’t find it until 2017. You should be embarrassed, but you don’t seem capable of it.

Again, a blatant and obvious lie. I said they found the animals likely responsible for transmitting it at the market right away:

@anon10396289

CIDRAP

Animals in Chinese markets carried SARS-like virus

(CIDRAP News) Chinese scientists found that animals sold at street markets in Guangdong, China, carried a coronavirus nearly identical to the SARS coronavirus, according to a report published recently in Science.

They’ve tested huge numbers of animals for covid in and around Wuhan and come up empty.

You said that they didn’t know what the identity of the animal that was the natural reservoir. Which is true, as I and the paper I quoted both acknowledged. But that was irrelevant, I said they identified the likely culprit at the market right away, and they did:

@anon10396289

jesus christ the Science paper says that they don’t know what the actual natural reservoir for Sars is, just that they detected sars in animals and the human animal traders. You don’t even have to read the whole paper, just the abstract. Which is like eighty words long.

But the fact that you’re telling me to read wikipedia rather than a peer reviewed article is pretty funny.

So the point I was making is obvious and I’m sure you understood it: with Sars, they immediately identified the virus in animals at the market and the animal traders that trafficked them. You’re knowingly lying about what I wrote. Because you’re a liar.

[zikzak]

Reminder that they tested the heck out of the Wuhan market, and the animals in it, and a bunch of animals outside of it, and they found exactly zero coronavirus anywhere.

Back in 2002/3 they also tested the heck out of the animals in the markets in Guangdong and later wild animals and bats nearby, and they found lots and lots of coronavirus all over the place. That’s because it is endemic to that region.

Wuhan is 1,000 km away from Guangdong, and there are no known reservoirs of a genetically similar coronavirus anywhere in the area.

Based on this, it seems unlikely that zoonotic jump happened in or near Wuhan. It would be much more reasonable to speculate that somebody was snorting guano in Guangdong, then later traveled to Wuhan and coughed on everybody.

Or, you know, maybe it came from the big building in Wuhan full of coronaviruses.

[CaffeineNeeded]

What you actually said:

“They almost immediately found the animal that was responsible with SARS.”

Now, because you’re dishonest and insecure, so you can’t just admit that you might be wrong about something, you change that statement to “they found the animals likely responsible for transmitting it” which is obviously different. You did not do this accidentally.

The best part is that no one really knows if those animals actually were the intermediate animal between the horseshoe bats of if they just got infected like everyone else (similar to how cats, tigers, other animals have gotten covid), so even under that new standard you are wrong. SARS-Covid-1 was also found in multiple animals including civets, raccoon dogs, ferret badgers and more. No one knows if any of those animals were the intermediary. Saying that one is clearly more likely than the other isn’t supported. It was thought to be civets initially, but that’s because it was isolated in them first.

It’s ok to be wrong about something. It will be ok.

[Trolly]

@zikzak

Or, you know, maybe it came from the big building in Wuhan full of coronaviruses.

They tested that and didn’t find any closely related coronaviruses.

[CaffeineNeeded]

@zikzak

Back in 2002/3 they also tested the heck out of the animals in the markets in Guangdong and later wild animals and bats nearby, and they found lots and lots of coronavirus all over the place.

The bat origin was finally established in 2017, more than 15 years after the original outbreak. It’s going to take awhile to figure it out exactly. Your characterization of what happened is incomplete.

Wuhan is 1,000 km away from Guangdong, and there are no known reservoirs of a genetically similar coronavirus anywhere in the area.

This sounds compelling, but isn’t. Coronaviruses are very common in nature, and afaik China isn’t genetically sequencing random viral particles in various animal populations.

Also, what Trolly said about lab testing. You can’t harp about ‘genetically similar’ for wild animals and then ignore that ‘genetically similar’ criticism for labs, especially when the viruses are much better characterized viruses in the lab.

[CaffeineNeeded]

@anon10396289

That’s true, no one knows which animal at the market was actually responsible.

They found the animal responsible right away by whatever nonsense definition you want while simultaneously not knowing what animal it is. Alrighty then.

[zikzak]

If it’s going to take another 15 years to figure out why are you so certain a market was the most likely source, based on a sample size of one?

[anon10396289]

@CaffeineNeeded

What you actually said:

“They almost immediately found the animal that was responsible with SARS.”

We were talking about transmission at the market! The link I provided was to a paper that said exactly that, that they found animals and animal traders who were infected with SARS. It was extremely strong evidence that the source was the market.

@CaffeineNeeded

Now, because you’re dishonest and insecure, so you can’t just admit that you might be wrong about something, you change that statement to “they found the animals likely responsible for transmitting it” which is obviously different. You did not do this accidentally.

Again, we were talking about transmission at the market. The link I posted was talking about transmission at the market. You’re right that my minor change was intentional – my first sentence was imprecise and I clarified it. And of course from context, it’s obvious that was what I meant.

@CaffeineNeeded

The best part is that no one really knows if those animals actually were the intermediate animal between the horseshoe bats of if they just got infected like everyone else (similar to how cats, tigers, other animals have gotten covid), so even under that new standard you are wrong. SARS-Covid-1 was also found in multiple animals including civets, raccoon dogs, ferret badgers and more. No one knows if any of those animals were the intermediary. Saying that one is clearly more likely than the other isn’t supported. It was thought to be civets initially, but that’s because it was isolated in them first.

It’s ok to be wrong about something. It will be ok.

That’s true, no one knows which animal at the market was actually responsible for transmitting SARS. That’s because they found a fuckin bunch of infected animals! Right away! They haven’t found a single one in Wuhan. Not one.

[CaffeineNeeded]

That’s a fair question, there’s lots of reasons:

1. SARS-Covid-2 is genetically similar to coronaviruses found in bats.
2. SARS-Covid-2 has shown an ability to infect multiple other animals
3. Genetic sequencing suggests that there was a single crossover event, suggesting a single animal spillover
4. The WHO found:
   “A large proportion of the initial cases in late December 2019 and early January 2020 had a direct link to the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market in Wuhan City, where seafood, wild, and farmed animal species were sold. Many of the initial patients were either stall owners, market employees, or regular visitors to this market. Environmental samples taken from this market in December 2019 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, further suggesting that the market in Wuhan City was the source of this outbreak or played a role in the initial amplification of the outbreak. The market was closed on 1 January 2020 and was cleaned and disinfected.” (fyi this goes on that there are a few cases earlier than than that they cannot explain - this is not the best evidence, it could just be the first super spreader event)
5. It happened with SARS-Covid-1

[CaffeineNeeded]

Just to be clear, we’re done. Didn’t even read this.

[anon10396289]

Good riddance. Great to see you haven’t changed a bit.

[anon10396289]

@zikzak

If it’s going to take another 15 years to figure out why are you so certain a market was the most likely source, based on a sample size of one?

And again, it didn’t take 15 years with SARS. That’s a lie. They found compelling evidence of SARS among animals and the traders that collected them literally right away. The outbreak was in November 2002 and the paper detailing those results was peer reviewed and published in Science in September 2003. Right away.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/early/2003/09/04/science.1087139.full.pdf

[Trolly]

That’s where these bugs usually come from.

[CaffeineNeeded]

BTW, I find the topic of how covid could have come from a lab fascinating. However, at this point, the only way that it could have come from a lab involves a massive cover-up from the Chinese government. The genetic analysis shows no signs of manipulation through known genetic techniques and also suggests a single crossover event. There’s also no record of a similar virus.

Now, is there no chance of an authoritarian government hiding the truth? Of course not, but you’re getting into conspiracy that would involve quite a few people. It’s very unlikely at this point, especially when there’s a direct and proven precedent of something extremely similar two other times in the past 20 years. (SARS - bats → ??? → humans, MERS - bats → camels → humans)

[TrollyWantACracker]

Maybe it took a big wet market to see that the coronavirus was inside us all along.

[anon10396289]

@CaffeineNeeded

Now, is there no chance of an authoritarian government hiding the truth? Of course not, but you’re getting into conspiracy that would involve quite a few people. It’s very unlikely at this point, especially when there’s a direct and proven precedent of something extremely similar two other times in the past 20 years. (SARS - bats → ??? → humans, MERS - bats → camels → humans

I’d imagine the total absence of a free press and the unfettered authority to disappear without trial anyone at any time would tend to make whistle blowers a little reticent to come forward. A whistle blower in the free and open US faces daunting hurdles, I can’t even imagine what it would be like in China.

[Trolly]

You know no one even knows what caused the sweating sickness 500 years ago? Still a mystery after all these years.

[anon10396289]

Good thread:

https://twitter.com/emmecola/status/1378969763544711176

Some highlights:

https://twitter.com/emmecola/status/1378969768565342209

https://twitter.com/emmecola/status/1378969776689659905/photo/1

https://twitter.com/emmecola/status/1378969779252436992

https://twitter.com/emmecola/status/1378969784465899525

https://twitter.com/emmecola/status/1378969812395773952

https://twitter.com/emmecola/status/1378969823724634112

https://twitter.com/emmecola/status/1378969834722103301

https://twitter.com/emmecola/status/1378969839348383746