If there’s no incumbent advantage the dems are utterly fucked. They have to hope for incumbent. Then he can step down two years into his term.
I don’t see how there’s an incumbency advantage when:
- He’s polling at 39% approval
- We’re in a recession
- We have significant inflation
- He’s failed to deliver on ~any of his signature policies or promises
“Stick with us, we know what we’re doing,” doesn’t seem like a good selling point right now and I expect it to get worse before it gets better, possibly not in time for 2024.
I would also argue that as our empire declines, even if we had a still well functioning democracy, the incumbency advantage would likely disappear.
One of my main anti-Biden points in the primary was that punting the incumbency is stupid, but thanks to the efforts of the Biden administration, establishment Democrats, Manchin and Sinema, punting incumbency seems necessary.
Name the last time a party failed to run a healthy unindicted incumbent.
I can tell you the last time a party should have.
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It really is just fucking amazing how poorly biden is performing as president. Seems like half of it is just him being himself and following his beliefs while the other half is just an unprecedented laziness. Just imagine being in his position and refusing to do anything because it seems hard.
Nah, he just believes in the system and the Constitution and thought that if you just replace the bad guys with good guys, everything will work out. America is a crazy religion.
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We’re really going right up to the Sweet Summer Child line here. Wouldn’t be surprised if she made an appearance.
There is a certain courage in not seeking greatness.
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I saw that. I’m saying even if the ‘IF’ happens, the ‘THEN’ is not happening.
I think the “may” keeps you out of unequivocal SSC territory.
Bolton: Never met Hutchinson. Trump too stupid to be a threat to democracy. May be a criminal. Suspects he obstructed justice and continues to do it. Won’t run in 24. Loser. Living in fantasyland.
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I wouldn’t be surprised if history judges Biden almost dead last, and certainly lower than Trump. And I’m not even talking about a world where fascists are writing the history, I mean like the current scholars who rank these things semi-objectively but with like 20-30 years of hindsight. We’ve given plenty of Presidents passes for being racists, corrupt, and hostile to the working class. Being ineffective is unforgivable. Being ineffective at a moment of national crisis like we’re facing today should put him down there with Buchanon and I don’t even think it would be that unfair.
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I feel like it’s all a matter of judging Biden on what he could have accomplished vs. what he did. If there were one less D Senator right now, he’d be getting literally nothing done including getting judges approved, but history would rightly look at at as a situation where he was served a shit sandwich and had his hands tied.
With the dems technically owning both houses right now, history will be a lot tougher on him, even if just for not being able to pull some LBJ-style strongarm tactics to get all 50 Senators in lockstep, which may or may not be fair (he clearly doesn’t have this skillset but I’m not sure what % of presidents did). Then again it depends upon how things play out; if Sinema winds up pivoting to being some kind of right-wing grifter after her Senate career, and Manchin actually flips parties for his last couple of years before retiring, then it becomes “oh lol of course he had no chance to succeed here”.
I do think there’s more that he could be using his executive power for, but in the end that’s dwarfed by what could be accomplished legislatively, which is where he was just fucked from the beginning. That said, he’s in the bottom 25% of presidents for sure unless something changes drastically, I’m just not sure if he’s gonna be judged as dumpster fire territory.
These are some good points but in the end what he should do is haul them in a room and say vote for the things I ran on or I’m kicking you out of the party, and he should have done it a year ago.
Biden doesn’t even acknowledge there’s a problem. The vibes are so fucking demoralizing. He just nominated a pro life federal judge the same week Roe was overturned. Dude is just a disgrace.
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Functionally both of these have happened, and have been effective for his entire presidency.
Yeah this is it for me, he at least had to try, recognizing the desperation of the situation. Like if it didn’t work, even if he pushed Manchin into the GOP, he could shrug and say, “I tried, give me two more Senators and we’ll get it done,” and that would be believable.
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Everyone here knew this years ago. Somehow, he did not.
Oh we got him now
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