I din’t read the tweet thread, so sorry if this is ignorant, but those arrow tips on the graph are doing a lot of work.
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The interpretation seems to be that social pressures caused conservative non-whites to vote for Democrats, but they feel less pressure to do so because of the decline of churches and having more diverse social circles.
To your point,
https://x.com/baseballot/status/1767213536852180995?s=20
I would have said to do a trend line but if you look from '84 on, not much as changed overall.
Dems going from a +50 among non-whites to a +10 in one election cycle with the exact same 2 candidates running in each election would be statistically improbable, if these are the assumptions that are being used to make Trump the current favorite then I feel a lot better about how November is going to go.
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Dems have been living off goodwill from the Civil Rights Act for generations and minorities are starting to wonder “what have you done for us lately?” They need boots on the ground and they need a real Latino outreach campaign. Orange Man Sucks may not be enough.
Need the arrows to make it look like a donger ldo
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They’ve straight up blown it with Hispanics for a full generation now
If Democrats had actually done enough with the Mexican-American population to win Texas, it would literally be game over in the electoral college.
The failure is rooted in their agreement with republicans that only racist former factory workers are real Americans
In 1964, 100% of non-whites supported democrats? Ya ok. lol.
94%. I guess nonwhites really didn’t go for Goldwater? It was 68-32 Kennedy vs Nixon in the prior election.
For some reason, non-whites didn’t like Goldwater voting against the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Goldwater was the gateway drug that led to Nixon, Reagan, Gingrich, and MAGA. No one should think of him as a “good” Republican.
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Gateway drug is exactly the wrong metaphor for Goldwater. I think you mean, like, the opposite of that.
Goldwater was the beginning of the Southern Strategy that resulted in the modern GOP. MLK himself said that Goldwater wasn’t racist when he voted against the Civil Rights Act, but that led to Republicans becoming the party of racism.
Yeah, with more than 5 seconds of thought it’s the Civil Rights act.
