Thanks I agree with your cites as well, the prohibition comparison is interesting to think about.
Right, and John Roberts says the solution to this is to vote them out at the state level. In 2018, Pennsylvania Democrats beat Republicans 55% to 44.43% in the statewide popular vote in State House races, and lost the State House 110 to 93. Thatâs a 55-44 victory that in seats won is a 54-46 defeat. From +11 to -8. In the state Senate, half the seats were up, they won the popular vote in those races 53.83% to 45.51% and lost 29-21. So thatâs 54-46 to 42-58.
Like thatâs how dire it is. To retake these state houses in swing states we need to win the popular vote something like 60-40 or better.
Yep. But Iâd split these out. In the Senate, itâs a tall lift to get to 50 seats for Dems, and 60 is impossible which just happens to be the threshold to pass anything. Given that McConnell realized this a decade ago and realized he can prevent Dems from doing ~anything, while still marching forward when he has control, weâre pretty much drawing dead there short of reform.
The presidency is at least competitive enough to win, despite the disadvantage.
Yep, only time Dems get confirmations is when they control the Presidency and the Senate at the same time, which is extremely difficult to do. If these conditions persist, the Court will inevitably eventually end up 9-0 if you keep playing it out.
Never mind that the last three conservative justices were appointed at ages 50, 53, and 48. The two liberal justices confirmed in this century were 55 and 50, and the last liberal nominee was 64. Oh and the 55 year old has type 1 diabetes, which takes 13 years off her life expectancy (68 vs 81 according to WebMD). Sheâs now 67. So thatâs fucking great.
So the average of their last three nominees was 50.33 years, and our last three were 56.33 and one has a major health issue.
Then throw into the mix that Kennedy retired at 82 so Trump could replace him, but Breyer is 83 and basically flipping the double bird to Democrats who mention his retirement. Oh and RBG had cancer like 18 times, but she couldnât find her way to retiring before Obamaâs second midterm election with a bad Senate map even when she was 81 fucking years old.
Like if Dems were trying to fuck up and lose the SCOTUS, they couldnât do much better.
Put it even more clearly: undermined by gerrymandered state legislatures and partisan hackery in picking judges, and unaddressed by Democrats who are honoring norms at the federal level to preserve the violation of norms at the state level.
Right, like plenty of us here get it and are highly intelligent and great strategic thinkers, and if you put like 5-10 of us collectively in charge of the Democratic Party tomorrow, weâd have at best probably a 15-20% chance of staving off disaster.
But the stuff weâd do would mostly be predicated on executive power and better electoral strategy, and thereâs damn near zero chance eDems do either because theyâre not financially incentivized to do either.
Little to nothing will happen. A bunch of red states will ban abortions. Some blue states, like California, will do some virtue signaling. There will be more people at the next couple of womenâs marches, and weâll see an uptick in women running for office.
At the end of the day, this might get us a swing district or two, but itâs not going to matter nationally in elections very much - not up against all the aforementioned legal riggage.
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This is a good summary of where we are but it shouldnât be forgotten it kind of doesnât matter because Dems going to Dem. Even when given a filibuster proof trifecta they did basically nothing with it. Probably even worse than nothing.
The system is rigged a level beyond all these structural disadvantages. The Democratic party itself is the last blocker to actual progress. Turning the left party into losers like Joe, Chuck and Nancy is exactly how you make sure nothing can ever happen regardless of the outcomes of elections.
Iâm kind of skeptical that if you removed all the structural disadvantages Dems face the results would even be different. EDem losers are groomed from early ages to be what they eventually become and what most of us hate. Itâs purposeful by the rich and the elite. The last thing they want are politicians who donât act like their lapdogs.
https://twitter.com/revolvingdoorDC/status/1484269579933302793?t=KE3FYK_jztYdshIhoY-qug&s=19
Youâve gotta be fucking kidding me
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$38,000? Itâs cheaper to buy a federal judgeship than to pay for two years of college.
Just remembered to change my voter registration from dem to no party preference.
I think I might go back to being one of those both sides are bad bros who vote for Gary Johnson as a troll. Those were the good days.
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The craziest part is $38,000 is a pretty big donation for this kind of thing, most politicians will sell out for less than $10k.
The very wealthy and glamorous Obama family has nothing to gain from running for office again.
Michelle is definitely definitely not running for president and Iâm tired of the press/pollsters telling the rubes that she might.
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She canât/wonât win and it probably would hurt her career long-term, but I would be so excited if AOC ran. Just would be awesome to see.
If she ran without being cutthroat and just made her goal to get on the debate stage in the first couple of debates, then dropped out if she wasnât in the top 3-4 candidates, it would be great for her career long-term.
Start building up infrastructure and experience in Iowa and New Hampshire for future runs, gain name recognition, make the case for her positions on a national stage⌠And perhaps bank some delegates and a valuable endorsement to horse trade for a speaking slot at the convention.
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1484568330967134213
absolutely horrifically bad at her job
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Hey our democracy is crumbling and probably completely fucked, but like, go have a margarita and have a fun weekend!
Maybe next week we can re-arrange the deck chairs a bit, hey, whatâs that big chunk of ice dead ahead?
Kickboxing
Finger on the pulse Jen
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Itâs a nice way of saying âDonât fall into despair and kill yourself because you think itâs hopeless.â
What she really means is âPlease, suckers, keep knocking on doors, phone banking, donating, and voting for us. Weâre really trying super hard we promise and we can still win!â
Like there will never be an admission from the Democratic Party that they fucked up, they lost, and itâs over. They will keep âfighting the good fightâ as long as people keep giving them money, which is guaranteed to happen for at least 1-2 cycles after weâre completely fucked already.
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