My guess is it depends on how much they offer in the reconciliation bill and what provisions they take out. I’m pretty confident they tank it if Manchin tries to do his 1 to 1.5 trillion dollar package. If it’s 2 to 2.5 they probably pass it, but depends on what provisions Manchin tries to take out.
In your scenario it sounds like if the reconciliation is completely tanked? It’s already locked up together so thats not happening. The bi-partisan deal is not passing until some type of reconciliation bill passes. 100% if the reconciliation isn’t passed the bi-partisan one isn’t passing either.
Right now its locked up together. If there isnt 50 votes for a reconciliation package, Republicans start hammering “this do nothing House cant even pass a bill that has BROAD BIPARTISAN agreement and the support of the American people”, and there are zero (0) legislative wins heading into the mid-terms that may change.
EDIT: The first thing Manchin is going to take out (maybe 2nd, there was one care provision he really doesnt like) is ~anything climate related, so, that seems like a problem. I think he will compromise higher on the final total, but its going to involve basically nuking anything climate related.
I think he nukes anything against coal, but if he totally nukes ALL climate related proposals neither is passing.
But yeah if they don’t pass a reconciliation bill at all I’m pretty confident the progressives nuke the bipartisan deal. I really don’t see that happening, Manchin will have the entire democratic party on his ass. I think they will reach something that we’re big mad at but overall isn’t horrible like 2.5 trillion with shit like oil/gas/coal not touched much but a good amount of money for green energy infrastructure.
You just have to model Democratic behavior as a multi-party coalition. These are the kind of fights we’d be seeing if we had a multi-party system, except establishment Dems would have the option of forming a coalition with Romney Republicans if progressives ask for too much.
Heres the problem with the multi party stuff here, all republicans only care about power and culture grievances. The Republican voting block votes as one. So we’d have 4 parties. Progressives, shitlibs, Romneys, and Trumpers.
Progressives and shitlibs would be split like 30/70 and Romneys/Trumpers would be split 1/99. You just need to see how they’re all on the same page about every single talking point.
Trumpers would absolutely dominate politics. Moderate Republicans don’t really exist anymore, and they’ve been taught anything left of like Lindsey Graham are pure evil baby rapists
I mean congress would function nearly the same but the Trumper team would win president every year.
For that dream to exist we would need to completely kill the Republican party first. Make voting super easy and universal, HR-1 level, with added states. And dems would need to dominate politics for a decade completely while racist boomers died off. We would need to figure out how to fix the media somehow.
If that happened then maybe we could split the parties.
This keeps people on the left motivated (and even more importantly, donating). The illusion that just one more seat will make the difference is intoxicating. Especially given how evil Republicans are (legitimately!).
No matter how many democrats we elect every good policy that actually negatively influences rich people and corporations will always magically fail by one vote. I’m officially on team blow it all up.
Like let’s get real. Nothing good is going to happen without violence and the democratic base of affluent, educated people (myself included!) isn’t signing up for that.
I feel if we ever got a legit HR1 bill that blew up gerrymandering, added states, and made voting super easy we would eventually get there. I do think we could get HR1 if we had like 53 or 54 seats. Minus the added states.
He gets it. I’ve started reading his Twitter recently as one of the few sane voices on Afghanistan. He speculated that Ds in red to relatively neutral districts are highly prone to being corrupt because they have an eye on private sector opportunities once they lose office and they cloak their corruption as “moderation.”
For all this talk about how the Democrats have moved too far left anytime Democrats even do centrist popular things like tax the rich more or try and catch tax cheats special interests stop them.
Seems like Republicans are the only ones who manage to successfully pare their unpopular policies of tax cuts for the rich with their popular policies of grievence mashing