Infrastructure / Reconciliation / Debt Limit Sweat

Hard to say. I’ve seen some stories say as early as June, others think it’s late summer.

They are already in the extraordinary measures phase, so it can’t be that much longer.

I’ve also seen this, and find it very odd that there’s not a definite date that is widely known.

It’s really hard to identify exactly what date they’re going to run out of money - the timing of inflows and outflows aren’t known precisely.

As one example, tax collections are uncertain. Returns had to be postmarked just a couple of days ago, so it’s still not known how much will be collected. On top of that, the IRS gave extensions to filers in several states due to severe storm experiences. That list includes much of California, which obviously represents a large amount of federal tax revenue; those returns (and associated payments) now aren’t due until mid-October.

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Some interesting nuggets here

Voters were evenly divided over raising the debt ceiling in a Wall Street Journal poll conducted this month. About 44% said they favored raising the borrowing limit to avoid an unprecedented default on government debts, and 45% opposed raising the limit.

But voters were overwhelmingly opposed to the idea of making cuts to domestic programs as a condition of raising the debt ceiling. About 61%, including 48% of Republicans, said they didn’t want Congress to require cuts to healthcare, education, homeland security or other domestic budgets as a condition for a higher borrowing limit, while 27% overall favored the idea.

Many House Republicans said last week that they were undecided. Some suggested they would like to see changes to the bill before committing to vote for it. Few had fully read the 320-page bill.

Rep. George Santos (R., N.Y.) said he would oppose the debt-ceiling measure in its current form because it would end tax credits for solar panels popular in his district.

“It’s not good enough,” he said. “I’m not changing [my position] until there’s some change there.”

Predictions on what’s going to happen with the debt ceiling nonsense this go around?

This time the “debate” gets out of hand, no agreement is reached, the debt ceiling is breached and the U.S. immediately falls into a recession. Other countries stop doing business with us, causing incredible pain in the short term. Legitimacy of the government is in question, basic services rot, millions die as the economy shrinks. The United States global role is largely eliminated, and some foreign aid packages are even considered (but, lol, never delivered) to help the nation.

The political class think this is a bad thing, but within a decade a new party based entirely around equity rises to power and …

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ssc that

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Literally the same thing that has happened the last dozen times it has come up: rustlage, horse trading, the machine moves on.

This time we do have a speaker who seems way dumber than the previous speakers and who has a super thin margin of power.

https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1650969556968435715?s=20

Somewhat funny because ethanol subsides (at least the way they are done in the US) are pretty bad environmental policies, although better than many plausible alternatives.

Idk maybe that’s just what big sorghum wants you to believe.

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Republicans got Elon advising on the debt limit?

https://twitter.com/HayesBrown/status/1651436176467795968

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Sound like the democrats could push them to 4.20 trillion.

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They are really going to blow up the economy huh

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I bet even the whackos get a significant amount of money from the mega-donors.

just mint the trillion dollar coin and be done with this shit.

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And put Reagan on it, so they’re forced to be against the Reagan Coin.

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