Not that it makes much difference, but the guy in the vid said he “I would …” not “we will…”.
The tweet made it sounds like there was already a bill on the floor.
he wasn’t murdering his wife, he was denazifying his immediate family.
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Humans are fine, it’s people that are the problem.
Unfortunately if there’s not a right to privacy on these matters, and the draft opinion is clear that there is not, there’s no other way to stop a law like that in the courts. The states clearly have the right to regulate different drugs, and I don’t see how we can effectively argue that the pill is any different.
Basically the only recourse is to win elections at the state level, and in a lot of states that’s basically impossible due to the gerrymander.
Like the Dems won the Pennsylvania State House popular vote 55% to 44% in 2018 and lost the chamber 110-93. So what do they need to win the popular vote by? 60-40? 65-35? Probably somewhere in that range and that’s basically never going to happen. As a frame of reference the presidential popular vote in 2020 in California was 63% to 34%.
The GOP gets a trifecta once in most states, they enact whatever they want on abortion and birth control, and it’s locked for decades most likely.
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In PA at least they did un-gerrymander it for this time around since the Ds hold the supreme court and they appointed the tiebreaking vote to the redistricting committee. I doubt it ends up mattering this time since they’re fucked anyway, but assuming the Rs aren’t able to successfully amend the Constitution in 2023 to re-gerrymander they’ve got a shot of winning it sometime this decade.
That’s huge, how did I not know that??? That’s awesome! Are you 100% sure the rulings are final and it’s a fair map?
Yep, it’s all final. Affirmed 7-0 by the court. I think it’s something like 103 Biden districts and 100 Trump districts now for the house. I forget what it is for the Senate but the maps are finally fair. https://www.redistricting.state.pa.us/
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Looks like the Senate map is now 26-24 R, so at least we may have a fighting chance at a trifecta.
And there’s no chance of the Republican “lol fuck you, we’re still drawing the maps they way we want, take it to SCOTUS” coming into play?
Not for this go around. Lately they’ve gone with the “legislate via Constitutional amendment” route to get around Wolf’s veto. So they have to pass it in 2 consecutive sessions and then it goes to the voters for an up or down approval (and it could happen in the primaries because lol PA). They have an amendment in the works to basically rig the commission and have them redraw the maps before 2024 that I think they’ve passed this session. So if they win the house and senate this time around they’ll pass it again and the voters will probably pass it and then we’ll be perma-fucked.
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Taliban: Women must be covered head to toe.
GOP: Hold my beer!
When people show you who they are, believe them.
We are going down the slippery slope like that kid that got decapitated at an amusement.
Parsing will and would is silly.
It has nothing to do with what that guy would do. It’s just not an accurate description of the current state. They made it sound like there was a bill on the floor that they were going to debate and vote on.
That’s completely separate from the fact that this guy will love when that happens and vote for said bill.
Yeah I mean it’s a slam dunk that 5-10 of the very red states pass laws banning birth control. If I were a SCOTUS justice and you wiped my memory of the partisanship and said I had to follow precedent on the leaked ruling, it would be a no brainer that the laws would stand.
So I expect that birth control will be illegal in double digit states within a couple years.
If they try to do the stupid Marsha Blackburn thing where married couples can have it but nobody else, then that would be discriminatory imo and should be struck down.
Either way it’s stupid and morally reprehensible but we have all kinds of stupid and morally reprehensible laws obviously.
I’ll take that bet. I guess it might be hard to come up with terms though. “Birth control will be illegal” is open to varying interpretations. But if you’ve got some sort of bet that you might be willing to make, I’d be potentially interested.
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It would have to be something like at least 10 states have any law restricting access to birth control for any portion of the population at any point between now and the end of 2025, and it stands up in some form whenever it goes before SCOTUS.
I wouldn’t want them to have to be on the books simultaneously in case an electoral backlash undoes some of it. I’m also not totally confident that gives me enough time to be even money cause there could be a cycle or two of laws being struck down and new laws being passed.
If you think they won’t even try in any state, or fewer than X states then we can probably make a more simple bet on that.
100% that at least 10 states make Plan B illegal, if you’re counting that as birth control.
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Yeah that’s a good point, it also likely takes a few years to settle which is a pain in the ass since it’s easy to forget or lose touch.
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Yeah, it looks like this one will be challenging to grade.
I’m in camp WAAF, but I don’t see birth control being illegal (the way something like heroin is illegal) in 10+ states. Maybe more hoops to jump through and more limited options, but not actually illegal.
Yes, that would severely restrict access and it would be horrible. So the fact that it may not technically be illegal, is the tiniest of consolations.
There’s almost no chance of a total ban on birth control, but things right wingers wrongly believe are abortifacient or that prevent implantation is going to draw some heat. IUDs and Plan B are probably in trouble in a lot of states. Condoms and standard birth control pills (because the lawmakers don’t want to have to use condoms with their mistresses, ldo) are probably safe everywhere, same with vasectomies and tubal ligations.