You guys are killing it. Drafts are so much better than the early SE days
2 Likes
Youāre right, he looks great on the ball. Iāve read quite a bit trying to square the circle and there are only a few explanations I can come up with. One is that the models are fubared and his coefficient is soaking up bias from somewhere. The second is that eye-tested, on-ball perimeter defense isnāt worth much and that things like good rotations, switches, and rim protection matter way more. I think the second is more likely but Iām not sure what odds Iād lay.
Maybe the best analogy I can think of in sports is in baseball. Traditionally, and especially before sabrmetrics, perceived fielding ability tended to be a combination of sort_by_errors (box score metric) and sort_by_web_gems (eye test). The analog to basketball is errors::steals (blocks for bigs) and web gems::on-ball eye test. With UZR, people started realizing that some of these dudes were only making amazing plays because they were slow or out of position. I wonder if a similar phenomenon is occurring.
You mean Adrian Peterson isnāt a good pick 4th overall in an all time NFL draft?
2 Likes
-
dodger is in his element here.
-
can yall post your current team at the bottom of new pick posts? iāve gotten a couple teams confused already after picks and while the spreadsheet solves that, it doesnāt right as iām reading a pick.
thanks 
1 Like
I def look at the stats, but Iām not into them to the degree some are. I mainly use them to check against my observations. Are those numbers penalizing him for having UNDRAFTED behind him along with a whole team system that may not drop off a ton when heās off the court? Is that it?
One thing thatās always been one of my key points with people who dig a little too deep into the numbers (prbly bc theyāre ignorant to much otherwise) is how much size matters. Klay is a long, not slight guy at the 2 and definitely has adequate size for the 3. I think him as a difference maker on defense has become pretty overstated tho. Heās got size and tries w/ okay foot-speed. His value is clearly offensively.
I donāt think Klay belongs on a 2nd team All Defense, but he has utility on that end. A lot of it is having a guy with that kind of shooting thatās decent on D, that you donāt have to cover for him. The baseball analogy would be what historically happened: guys that could hit would get overrated on the other end and get gold gloves they didnāt deserve. Palmeiro is the classic example bc he got one while playing like 30 games at the position.
Ironically, Durantās D is underrated.
Are you going to pick, homie?
Or is this just a 5yearpeak POASTING Draft.
1 Like
Mi malo, un momento.
Klay is not exploitable on D. Like at all. Except by top top biggish post guys and huge 5s. Heās good, not great. Good matters. A lot.
That carries a lot of value when coupled with his elite offensive trait.
2 Likes
- correct
My favorite stat for this guy is how when 82games looked at game winning shots, he easily led the NBA in game-winning assists in the time period examined, yet heās not a point guard.
I wanted a guy who could function as a point forward and this guy can do that. Since I have Giannis and T-Mac, I wanted someone who could shoot threes and this guy shot 38.7% over the period selected. He was an underrated defender. Admittedly, he often didnāt defend as hard as he could have, but he rose to the occasion when you gave him something worth playing for and put him against an elite wing. He has positional versatility, starting his career as a SG and ending up playing a lot as a smallball 4 at the end of the career. He has demonstrated the ability to accept a lesser scoring role when teaming with other elite players, while still performing at an All-Star level.
This guy is so often underrated that I debated whether or not I could wait another round before taking him. Ben Taylor had him 35th in the Backpicks GOAT rankings, but yāall usually just think of wheelchair jokes when he gets brought up, so maybe he would have lasted another round. However, he fits perfectly with the roster I am trying to build, one that I embraces the modern idea of positionless basketball. I knew going in that there was a good chance I would draft three wings with my first three picks and here we are.
Aesthetically, I just loved watching his crafty, old-man game. And I donāt think people really appreciate how much of a garbage roster he carried to the 2002 Eastern Conference Finals. And, wheelchair be damned, heās the guy who survived being stabbed 11 times, requiring surgery for a collapsed lung and being told that he probably would have died if he wasnāt wearing a leather jacket.
Iām taking the motherfucking Truth.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo 2019-2020
- Tracy McGrady 2000-2001
- Paul Pierce 2007-2008
4 Likes
Pierce is awesome, youāre probably preaching to the choir to everyone here.
Your team is really great and fits super well. You have the center of your team, w/ an identity, and yet you can still craft it further bc you have the luxury of building any way you want from here. You can take guys with clear weaknesses and theyāre already covered.
You have a ton of creation, really great pieces for Giannis. He can mask a badly drafted team but can be tough to build around if you want to do so optimally bc he has a few tiny warts.
re: Pierce I was just listening to a pod where Simmons pointed out how Ainge held on to Pierce during all that losing after the ECF run when a lot of guys would feel the pressure to blow it up and capitalize on the asset. Also was saying how Ainge felt he had to get UNDRAFTED out of there bc he wasnāt the best influence on Pierce.
People mocked Pierce season before this one when he was saying he felt he had the better career than Wade.
I donāt know about career in terms of winning bc I guess thatās straightforward, but Iād rather have Pierce if my goal was to win a title and either one was going to be my first piece.
I need sharpshooters and the spacing they provide, so my next pick is a career 42.8% 3PT shooter and 44.8% over the span Iām selecting. He also happens to be one of the best passers in NBA history and is a hyper-efficient scorer. Excels at fundamentals and tortures opposing defenses by probing for weaknesses. The knock is that heās undersized and therefore very limited defensively, but not so bad that heās traffic cones.
2004-2008 Steve Nash
1 Like
Oh heās with LeBron James, well LeBron will want the ball in his hands which means ā¦ oh shit Nash is going to be forced to shoot.
The guy would never pass up a shot if his role wasnāt what it was. Heās a basketball genius, he laments now that he shouldāve shot more ā¦ he wouldnāt. He loved to pass and get guys involved, but if that was LeBronās role: itās going to be bombs away. Guy is too smart to do anything other than what the offense will dictate and passing up open looks wonāt be it. Worst case is heās a Spur at heart and gives up a good shot for a great one elsewhere, even if his good is a higher %.
Heās not really undersized. Heās just slow of foot compared to top-end athletes, heās a better shooting Luka without the size of a wing. His defensive woes are a bit overstated.
LM Team:
Bron
Karl Malone
Nash
Oh noes, Bronās resting. How are we going to score with just Steve Nash and Karl Malone?
@anachronistic is up
Iād be so fine with handing it off to LBJ and just chucking bombs, but he could also play PnR with Malone which is scary. I was watching old footage of UNDRAFTED/Malone and was laughing at how often both defenders bit on UNDRAFTED drifting off into no manās land only to leave the Mailman with an open freeway lane to the rim. Donāt get me wrong, UNDRAFTED was good, but like cāmon pick your poison: pass-first guard on a midrange floating j or some absolutely huge motherfucker with an uncontested rip-your-face-off dunk.
1 Like
For some reason, like no one ran PNR then. So it was like playing Georgia Tech or Navy to these goofy ass bigs (of which there was 2 of them).
Read the MJ thread in SE, Iāve been making this exact argument lately. Casual fans take is always UNDRAFTED set him up, heād be just a guy. Itās moronic. Malone is Malone today.
1 Like
Paul George, SG/SF, 2016-2020
24/7/4/2 per 36 on 58%TS and DPOY caliber defense capable of guarding every level of the floor seems good. It actually understates PG13ās impact.
Feb 2019:
As much as UNDRAFTED and the rest of Oklahoma Cityās roster have contributed to a 37-19 record and the leagueās fifth-best net rating, though, it has become inarguable that George is the piece around which the Thunder orbit. To wit: Theyāve played nearly 1,200 possessions this season with George on the court and with UNDRAFTED off of it, according to Cleaning the Glass. In those minutes, the Thunder have thumped opponents by 10.7 points per 100 possessions. In just over 500 possessions of UNDRAFTED-but-no-PG floor time? Theyāre minus-7.5 points-per-100
That site recently introduced an on-court/off-court efficiency leaderboard, intended as a way to identify which players have the biggest statistical impact on how their teams perform. No. 1 on that list? [Paul George]
Feb 2018:
His defense was on display more than ever in a wire-to-wire Thunder win against the Warriors Tuesday night. George handled the Kevin Durant defensive assignment, while also chasing Klay Thompson around when Durant was on the bench. If he found himself matched up with anyone else on the Warriors? No problem, he shut them down too. Georgeās array of defensive moves showed that positions donāt matter as much on the basketball court when a player can literally guard anyone.
George finished the night with 38 points, six steals, five rebounds, and three assists. Letās take a look at Georgeās best audition for Defensive Player of the Year yet
On my squad, he can shoot off KG screens (Iām aware) and off Billups drives/dishes. Heās an established dynamic off-ball shooter (including off movement which has higher importance in this sim with fewer bad defenses than real NBA). If need be he can take advantage of mismatches by posting up or facing up. He can also feast in transition. But his real value will come in his tenacious, aggressive, and switch capabilities on D. His limitations as a creator/passer are mitigated as heās playing with three good/very good creators and wonāt need to operate with the ball much.
Team:
PG: Chauncey Billups
SG: Paul George
SF: Kevin Durant
PF: Kevin Garnett
1 Like