West Bank is pretty pacified. Israel has exactly the situation it wants right now, they’re just taking the parts of the West Bank they want and bombing the shit out of Gaza every 2-5 years. They’re fine with the status quo. Certainly the Chechen wars lasted a long time, but a Russian state less powerful than China ended up winning. And you think that the Hong Kong protesters are going to fight as hard as psycho Chechens? GMAFB. There isn’t going to be an insurgency. It’ll be resolved in a way much closer to Tiananmen Square than Afghanistan. Limited reforms after a brutal show of force by the state, which combine to placate the populace.
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There won’t be any money to support the HK protests. The money is going to pack up and move to Shanghai and Singapore, because the money doesn’t give a fuck about human rights or territory.
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We’re definitely going to find out who is right on this unfortunately. I agree that if anyone was going to pull this off it would be the CCP. I have serious doubts about it being doable though.
HK isn’t the West Bank or the Chechens. It’s a first world major global city with major ports to sneak the guns through… and mobile phone technology is ubiquitous and cheap. I guess we’ll see how it goes?
We’re also in an age of unprecedented surveillance, with China leading the way. Having ports as controlled points of entry for munitions + surveillance = less likely HK can carry on a prolonged fight for democracy. I really hope you’re right, but the way this timeline has gone I just don’t see it.
Ports are basically impossible to monitor that closely FWIW. I say this as someone who knows a good bit about ports. They need <5 port workers to be sympathizers to bring in weapons by the container load… and a container of AK’s/explosives isn’t that expensive in 2019 unfortunately.
“What would you do for fun but not for love” is a pretty good question 
James Holzhauer, Brad Rutter, Ken Jennings facing off in prime time. First to win three games wins. I am excite.
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Let them warm up on Wolf Blitzer.
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It worked fine for them every other time but sure this time it won’t.
Everybody bashes on Wolf, but can history toss some kind of nod Andy Richter’s way?
It’s pretty obvious from the CCP’s own line that they at least fear that I’m right. I could be wrong. I’ll happily admit that. Again if anyone could pull such a tricky maneuver off it’s the CCP and their crazy surveillance technology.
No, not at all. It’s wrong to think that because both sets are Chinese they share a common outlook. Most mainland Chinese people think the protestors are stupid and don’t understand why they’re in revolt. People there have been bought off by prosperity and consumer goods as much as they have everywhere else, while people in HK generally want to be anything but Chinese.
The view from the mainland is that the government is giving the HK rebellion as much rope as it needs before kicking it off the chair.
The view from the mainland is what it is because propaganda and because as you pointed out they’ve been bought off. If things get massively worse on the mainland economically they might be more open to changing their views. I agree that if the CCP starts shooting tomorrow the mainland isn’t going to support the protesters at all.
Yeah and I get the impression that the general sentiment on the mainland does not support the people protesting in Hong Kong. Obviously the government controlling the flow of information plays a huge role in this. Something that is going to have to break loose in the information dissemination front to swing the general populace.
Hong Kong independence has no chance at all. Hong Kong will just slowly arrest and deport the protesters and their families and convince loyal Chinese to move to Hong Kong. Financially Hong Kong is already not really relevant anymore for China except for Chinese that want to avoid currency controls. A revolt will never work as the CCP is afraid it will give mainland Chinese the wrong ideas. You are also wrong that mainland Chinese think the way they do just because of propaganda and lack of information. Even those with full access or studying oversees think the protesters are going too far.
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The one true GOAT
https://twitter.com/James_Holzhauer/status/1196484094542131200
https://twitter.com/James_Holzhauer/status/1196484096115068929
https://twitter.com/James_Holzhauer/status/1196484096953860097
https://twitter.com/James_Holzhauer/status/1196484097826263041
https://twitter.com/James_Holzhauer/status/1196484098723844099
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I’m gonna talk smack just like this at the next pub trivia night
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Self rule not independence. Still technically part of China which would allow the CCP to save face. Absolutely no chance of real independence agreed.
The protestors in Hong Kong are explicitly anti Chinese, a sort of Hong Kong nationalism. That’s not propaganda, it’s evident in videos of the protestors themselves that I’m sure don’t get played in China. Nothing wrong with that, and it’s hard to think of a way to have an anti Chinese state movement in Hong Kong without it given its history, but it obviously means they have limited appeal on the mainland. Thinking this is even an attempt at a pan Chinese movement is wrong.
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