I admittedly haven’t been following as closely as I should but my general reaction is one of disgust at America. These kids are literally putting their life on the line for what they believe in, knowing full well some of them are going to die. Meanwhile here in USA#1 half the people can’t even get off their ass to vote, let alone do something proactive.
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It’s not remotely the same situation. The Chinese Communist Party is several standard deviations more malignant towards dissidents AND more competent than the GOP. If the GOP was half as dangerous as the CCP to people who disagree we would all already be in a reeducation camp and the evidence used to put us there would be our posts on this board.
The people of HK were facing a truly large existential threat. We simply aren’t there yet, and expecting us to act as if is a bit silly. There have been fairly large protests in the Trump era… I’ve attended some. I’m currently trying to figure out what kind of protest I can join when Trump comes to Austin on Wednesday.
I know it sucks, but things just aren’t anywhere near that bad here yet. Like not even remotely close. In HK the government has lost so much legitimacy that it will eventually fall. It’s like a plane stalling after losing engine power… what happens next is basically physics.
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Buddy Holly, Peggy Sue > Meatloaf, I won’t do that
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Didn’t seem to work that way after Tiananmen Square.
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Or China will just start killing people and nobody will do a damn thing about it? Walk me through the consequences.
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That was the 80’s… there was no internet then. Also as a % of the population the protest was much smaller.
Things will start blowing up. People will start getting shot. It’ll become extremely hazardous to cooperate with the government. You know the drill, don’t play dumb.
These are the moments where I wished our economy wasnt so dependable on exports and you could give the Chinese the middle finger.
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I wish I had your optimism but I very much doubt this will be the case. America certainly isn’t going to condemn them for massacring protestors–hell, most Republicans are actually in favor of that. The numbers just don’t work in HK’s favor.
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I don’t see it. Is it because it’s Hong Kong and there will be support for the educated, literate students? China’s Uyghur reeducation program is the most heinous large-scale project this century and there’s nary a peep.
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There’s no case study for a government controlling a popular revolt of this size in the last 30 years that I’m aware of. If they escalate the violence it’ll be reciprocated, and every corpse spawns more people willing to reciprocate violence. Knowing that is why the Chinese haven’t already opened fire.
This isn’t a problem you can solve with force. It’s actually counter productive to kill people in this spot as the government. And it’s obvious that the CCP thinks I’m right from examining their line.
They are a tiny spread out minority from the hinterland with poor quality communications. Also the CCP is trying to eradicate them. Eradicating HK would destroy the immense wealth that HK generates and would be MUCH harder to cover up.
There are a lot of differences here. If the CCP figures out how to put this rebellion down it’ll be the first time any government anywhere won a situation like this since before WW2.
The people of HK are educated, and have serious resources/skills. If this turns violent asymmetric warfare means a Chinese victory is basically impossible. There’s also serious risk of it spreading outside HK which could potentially topple the CCP’s one party rule, particularly if the economy turns bad in any meaningful way.
There are lots of reasons why the CCP is being so restrained. This situation is really serious for them. If Donald Trump wasn’t a complete imbecile he’d have been supporting the protesters from the get go to create leverage he could use to secure a win-lose trade deal with the Chinese.
I’m not so sure that HK’s wealth matters nearly as much these days. Many of the things that made it so important in the late 20th century have already moved elsewhere, and the rest could go as well without too much friction.
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Not to the overall economy no… although destroying HK totally to put down the rebellion isn’t something that can be done without inviting serious economic/social/foreign problems IMO. That wealth means the people of HK have lots of options for more lethal resistance if the CCP puts down the protests with extreme lethal force.
Don’t get me wrong this could easily devolve into a multi decade low intensity situation where the CCP keeps some nominal control, but that would be extremely risky for them since those things tend to spread.
West Bank and Gaza seem like a relevant counterexample. Chechen war. I’m sure there are others.
And who is going to supply these Hong Kong freedom fighters with weapons and ammunition? Certainly not the US. The UK? Seems unlikely. They’d need the backing of a major power to stand against mainland China.
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They’re not killing people yet because they care about PR, for now.
If and when they start murdering protesters, who exactly is going to do anything about it? Certainly not America.
The West Bank and Gaza started developing world and never got bigger, and absolutely hasn’t been pacified despite decades of armed conflict now. It’s a great example for my side of the conversation.
The Chechen war also dragged on for decades without much in the way of foreign support.
They have their own money and there are plenty of gun runners in the world willing supply anyone if the price is right. Let’s be clear this could drag on for a very very long time… but I’d be surprised if the insurgency doesn’t outlive the CCP.
Why do they care about PR? Because if they fuck up the PR they’ll be facing a slow burning low intensity war from now on.
Honk Kong only maybe wins if dissent/revolution spreads to the mainland.
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