Electoral Map prediction thread

PA is the whole thing.

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Bad vibes driving through central Pennsylvania. I know itā€™s Trump country, but jfc every other house is Trump signs.

There is no denying the Republicans have the passion now, the enthusiasm. The Democrats do not. Independents are breaking for Romney. And thereā€™s the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same.

Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and weā€™re not really noticing because weā€™re too busy looking at data on paper instead of whatā€™s in front of us? Maybe thatā€™s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us.

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You know what else there is a lot of in central PA? Land, and land canā€™t vote. The people live in the non-shithole parts.

I mean we are fucked for sure, but pennsyltucky is the nut low.

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Iā€™m sure youā€™re right, but it was like everyone on the block trying to one up each other with their yard signs

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Also, LOL at anyone who has NM red.

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Iā€™m going to AZ this weekend. Iā€™ll better know the vibes there afterward.

You might laugh at vibes, but online vibes are not the same as vibes on the ground.

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Sounds like some of that virtue signaling that those hillbillies purportedly hate so so much.

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Just for fun, but I made a graph showing what UP thinks will happen on election night. If the predictions keep flooding in over the next two weeks, I will update it :+1:

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Thatā€™s cool!

Some of the predictions were clearly not serious, though.

Iā€™m continuing to see nothing but positive vibes on the ground. Iā€™ve spent over 20 years working either in the military, law enforcement, and EMS. My friend group leans towards upper middle class with business owners and landlords who legitimately benefited from the 2017 tax changes, would snap vote for any establishment Republican, and some who certainly even voted for Trump in 2016 and/or 2020. I have a significant sample of Republican voters to measure vibes.

Yeah the far right is hyping Trump again and putting yard signs back up when a month ago they were silenced. But the class of people who donā€™t study politics for fun in their free time and get off on believing theyā€™re thoughtful centrists are 100% swinging to Harris. People who donā€™t make politics part of their identity but vote Republican because thatā€™s what they were told to do growing up are curious about switching. Iā€™m sure my vibeometer has a higher MOE than a quality poll but there is overlap between what Iā€™m seeing and polls underrepresenting Harris voters by 2-3%. Iā€™m not going to be worried unless a consistent pattern of Trump +3-4% in swing states starts appearing, and voting is already underway so thatā€™s not happening. Harris is winning in a landslide, book it.

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This is the most hopium post ive ever seen, but im here for it.

Id like to subscribe to your newsletter sir, the WAAF Times has been good to me, but Hopium Weekly has a nice ring to it.

Weā€™re back to 50/50!!! LFG!!!

Vibes are officially back.

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Kamala odd, Trump even

@discobot roll 1d20

:game_die: 14

Hell yea

Welp.

Hi! To find out what I can do, say @discobot display help.