If McCarthy is sweating Katie Porter’s race he’s megafukken scurred
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https://twitter.com/AndrewFmOregon/status/1590865038881222656?t=z0TOb5iqzbCCQ_kpnDOFAQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/jvkeough/status/1590868775225942016?t=ExhMCmXXZyT8JDSPBlqt7A&s=19
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porter 93.4k 50.8%
baugh 90.4k 49.2%
It’s gonna be 7% when the mail is done.
I was like 97% confident in those and they were mandatory for any path to control. So not a big swing in equity, we just eliminated a low risk of our equity going bye-bye.
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https://twitter.com/samueljrob/status/1590842058683854848?t=4WVIP-VBhHzDj1_ZfZ5WXA&s=19
(played some offensive line in the NFL)
Joseph Allen Tate Born: December 30, 1980. Detroit, MI Position: OG Height: 6’5" Weight: 291. College: Michigan State
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Glaring obvious NY exception aside Dem redistricting actually went quite well.
“Which gavel is mine? Oh right, the one that says Bad Motherfucker on it.”
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Not quite in making the call territory but I’d be shocked to lose it. IMO the governor’s race in Nevada will be closer than the Senate race. Governor’s race looks to me like it could end up within 0.2%.
Sisolak has some hope still. Most likely outcome appears to be a narrow loss but he’s got a decent shot.
DeSantis winning the Hispanic vote by double digits is a bad sign. And he’s winning with Puerto Rican voters, not just Cubans.
Someone should let her know warm water works better for quenelles.
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Dems need to run better candidates. Like not old white guys, for starters.
Dems need (1) actual Hispanic outreach and (2) some kind of abortion legislation or they’re fucked in 2024.
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https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1590924902273810432?t=aPhYOi5wkWLk_v9T1FuUPA&s=19
Err, 215, lol
Maybe running a candidate who wasn’t previously the republican governor will help.
But, nationally speaking, I don’t think the southern strategy is going to work as well on Mexicans as it does on Cubans/Ricans/Brazilians for obvious reasons.
Speaking of mail in ballots in CA, I’d like to please fire my county registrar and find someone who knows how to post actual relevant numbers.
Like, I know as of yesterday at 4:15 pm that the registrar had received and recorded the return of 279,531 ballots from our district. I know this from our voter roll database and tracking software that is connected to the SoS. Based on turnout projections, there are still ~50k still to come in.
The ROV has only counted 198k of those. They do have it broken down between mail and in-person votes that have been counted, but not how many of each type remain…it’s all just in one big pile. It makes it nearly impossible to predict the final percentage, and who the hell knows, we gained almost a full point when it was updated today, so we could possibly still have a path to win.
Being the math and project management geek that I am, I like to build estimates…and I can’t do that because unless I know how many vote center vs mail ballots remain to be counted, I can’t calculate any projections with any sort of accuracy, it’s all a big WAG.
My best WAG right now is that if we get 65% of the remaining mail in ballots and stay at our current rate of Vote Center ballots, we could actually win.
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I’m not sure why Dem primary voters rejected a 44-year-old woman who actually won statewide office in 2018.
That’s some hopium