I don’t want to gum up the main election thread, but I’m just getting flooded with early vote notices by demographics, magic 8 ball predictions, and downright fantasies (Ryan in OH).
To start
https://twitter.com/simonwdc/status/1589603979344109569?s=46&t=-0o_bV6K7gMETCLzN6z9bA
https://twitter.com/civilrights/status/1589677617594204163?s=46&t=-0o_bV6K7gMETCLzN6z9bA
753 arrested for illegal water distribution.
https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1589673497726705665?s=46&t=-0o_bV6K7gMETCLzN6z9bA
I think the formula really is ABS() where positive values are the R margin.
Idk who this dipshit is but Ralston most certainly did not call NV for the Ds lol.
He called it the “firewall”. Agree very poorly written.
Ralston has Cortez Masto hanging on, he’s the only with the goods time in time out so I’ll allow this hopium, still seems like he’s quite out there on his own though, NV markets are grim for D senate.
edit: double checked, they went down from 79 R to 66 R, still not great but that’s decent movement.
Ah, thanks. I was reading the blog and didn’t see they posted a separate article with his predictions.
Let’s keep seriousness in the other thread.
I’d like to see pure of heart Hopium combined with unadulterated snark.
I’m hopeful because a NH represented by discount Mike Flynn and counterfeit Kayleigh McEnany is too grim to consider. 538s bound to get something right.
https://twitter.com/magicjohnson/status/1589715457531346944?s=46&t=-0o_bV6K7gMETCLzN6z9bA
Ooooops. Wrong thread, but then again maybe not…
This is more like it, magic
https://twitter.com/magicjohnson/status/1589719620415803396?s=46&t=-0o_bV6K7gMETCLzN6z9bA
Not buying it but here you go
https://twitter.com/simonwdc/status/1589594489739321344?s=46&t=PfdpBQSJPXn5pGCSVNbLYg
My hopium is women and especially young women will be over represented in the electorate this time and Dobbs will motivate. Also, don’t read this week’s New Yorker if you want to maintain your hopium.
I try to maintain the blimp view here. We voted so fucking hard and gave them control of everything and they did nothing and told us to vote even harder. You can’t credibly convince voters the other guys are super evil when you do exactly nothing in response, they can be forgiven for concluding you don’t actually want to do anything.
“It’s a historic achievement and I’ve spent my whole adult life trying to make that happen, starting with the [Bill] Clinton campaign,” Rosenberg said. “The Republicans are facing an existential threat — and this didn’t happen by accident.”
Simon Rosenberg, November 7, 2016
So, uh, my hopium is that hes more accurate this November 7th because this guy’s track record aint great.
Things are shifting to the Democratic side on the betting markets too. Arizona is now blue on Predictit, and NV and PA are not as deep pink as they were.
Some of the Senate stuff out there was a bit too pessimistic. No real reason to think Dems are going to lose Arizona Senate. Could happen, but hard to point to it in any data.
The NY gov thing made me go huh? I don’t think there is any chance she will lose.