Really? Pretty please
https://twitter.com/poshea/status/1590748080701599744?s=46&t=dRm9JoCtGFSQha99JA8iOA
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There’s a path, we’re not a favorite. Hard to say, I went deep into the weeds on the data in CO-03, and the conclusion was that it’s a toss-up based on current info. I don’t have time to do it on a bunch of them. His analysis seems reasonable to me, though.
A dozen years ago, I ran with her on a no hope local slate. We were impressed with ourselves we found candidates for everything. The budget was $3k, everyone lost by 30 points. Tuesday, after winning a seat in the Legislature, she got herself elected the chief executive of Illinois’s Orange County.
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Don’t dems usually go “muh norms” and just go with a party-matching replacement
Allow me to
by referencing Post #15 in this thread
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Just chefs kiss if this comes down to Bo-Bo losing in a recount to give the Ds 2-1-8
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No clue if it’s maths possible.
It’s absolutely in play.
No runoffs for the House?
Why on earth would you want to limit discussing abortion to highly educated voters? Gtfo
It makes sense in people who live Manhattan townhouses to whom actual voters are a zoo species.
He thinks it’s a purely philosophical issue, not something people really care about with regard to the impact on our lives.
Oddly enough, that new yorker article describes exactly what happened in my race.
Everyone here knows they don’t really have to care about abortion, and yet, based on one poll in august that said like 70% of our district is pro-choice, our consultants insisted on making our messaging all about abortion.
I, being a) not a member of the consultant class and b) hired as a field director and having less experience in campaign strategy, got ignored when I tried to get our messaging away from this and toward actually pushing back against the stupid “crime and taxes” attacks from the GOP and a superPAC that spent like $2m against us.
Instead we sent 8 (EIGHT!) mailers about reproductive freedom and you had me screaming into a void asking if we could make one, maybe two, about housing and affordability instead.
I literally had text replies saying “abortion is safe in CA, what about gas prices?”
Purple districts in abortion-safe states might actually be accurately described by this “conventional” wisdom.
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that sounds awfully close to toby zigler’s axiom of campaigning, which is don’t talk about what your opponent wants to talk about, and instead stick to what you want to talk about.
there’s some reason for it, but in the end it is just a vestige from a different less-polarized political environment with longer news cycles. which by the way may be remembered erroneously by the current operatives/consultants.
the new political campaign has to be much wider, it has to spread opinions and ideas on a broad range of issues, while fighting misinformation and dirty tricks. but the whole “let’s not draw attention to the crime ad that some gopnik dropped yesterday” is just done as a strategy. confront the ad head on, go on tv and call it a lie, tie it to social safety net cuts, point to police budgets being highest they’ve ever been, and move on. even if you sound like a commie, it will all be in one ear, out the other, because twitter/cable/etc
Not great. We trail by 794 votes, there are about 5,200 Pueblo mail-ins. I believe he can gain 300-350 from curing ballots. Let’s say he gets 200, though. That means he’s down 594 with 5,200 left. So he needs to win the mail-ins by just under 12%. 56-44. It’s possible.
I think we need it to take the House, too.
It appears Boebert gained around 300 from 2,600 in-person ballots in Pueblo. So she took it by 11-12%. This is arguably actually good, since it makes Frisch winning the mail-in by more than that margin very plausible.
There we go
Ramming through some very dirty math on warnock I get that he needs somewhere about 35,000 of 40,000 outstanding to get to 50%. So yeah, 87-88%
Of course who knows what “99%” reporting actually means.
I was wondering why they called the runoff so early when votes poured in over a week in Georgia previously and it went from Republican win to recount to Dem lead, but still recount in 2020.
Yeah usually 99% reporting means, “We think they’re basically done, but there may be a few stragglers.”
I think the people hoping 1% of the vote is actually outstanding are on that pure uncut hopium.
(Unless there’s reporting I’m not seeing.)