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Also I dunno I canāt see myself believing that the entire democratic establishment who literally lives and breathes polls is suddenly like polls fakenews Sanders canāt win. Massive fundraising, super energetic base donāt matter.
Our best shot is really the sun downing old man who has massive issues of his own, sounds like has dementia, has 100 times more oppo research on him than Bernie, who nobody is excited to vote for is how we win. Or the billionaire former republican with 60 sexual harrassment accusations, or a bunch of moderates with no minority support who people arenāt excited for.
I mean its possible some of them genuinely believe it. But it canāt be almost all of them which is what this seems like. How could the entire democratic establishment suddenly not believe polls. Or discount the massive incredible ground game Bernie has. Like who in the race could even remotely come to as good of a ground game as Sanders has? I guess Bloomberg could get a ton of people to show up for a paycheck, but my man Bernie has an army and if the establishment put their support in there too itād be unstoppable.
Plus Bernis it the only candidate who can credibly go on the offensive on the Coronavirus if it gets bad. As I mentioned earlier as this get worse, Bernies message that M4A and 30+ days a year of vacation is how we protect people from this shit and slow down the spreading of the virus.
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I donāt know if this is still to me, but thatās not what I was arguing. My point is that they donāt think Bernie win can but theyāre also too stupid to look around and realize that they donāt have a superman.
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Also Stim I like your posts and youāre one of the reasons Iām excited for Bernie, so take my late night ramblings (Iām in Euro) with a grain of salt.
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What makes you think that? Everyone I know who could scrape a couple hundred thousand dollars together is worried about Bernie hurting their pocket book.
Like, do they think he becomes President and everyone has to send him a check? Do they think Presidents are allowed to do that?
They think their taxes will be higher. Maybe a little higher with Biden (ok, not really), maybe a little higher with Liz, but theyāre afraid theyāll be significantly higher with Bernie. And they may well be - Bernie wants 40% on everything over $250k. 32% starts at $157k. Lots of people make more than $157k. Right now most of that range is at 24%. So, they go, Bernie is cool and all, but I donāt want to pay $x/year for that.
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Wouldnāt McConnell have something to say about that?
Youāre good brother! This is something totally reasonable to disagree on and you might be right. I got your point, I just donāt think theyāre that stupid, but it is incredibly possible.
Itās the old are they complicit or just incompetent debate and the answer is who the fuck knows lol.
I also like your posts as well. Hope youāre enjoying your time over seas.
Depends on the election, but McConnell may have a lot to say about a lot of things. Itās not irrational though to care about the candidateās intentions. POTUS doesnāt set the tax rate, but they actually do have some influence here because they get to sign and veto stuff.
I think this is the non political nerd take from a lot of people. I think the actual people in politics that weāre worried about know damn well that they will stop him from passing any such legislation and theyāre more shook about him taking on their gravy train. Handing out EOs that scare off their megadonors, inspiring tons of people to primary their sorry asses.
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Cheers. OK, my point (which it seems like Iām being either coy or dense about, but Iām probably just wrong about) is that I donāt think the eDems really fear that Bernie will get in and hurt their pocketbooks too much. Theyāre too entrenched and too cocksure for that. They really are just those terrible out of touch pols who donāt see (or refuse to believe) that heās where the truth of the party is. And they donāt want to have to back him if it means looking like they were wrong or taking a whole bunch of shitty meetings with idiot eDem billionaires promising them everything will be OK
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This is shedding some light for me. Iāll bow out and keep reading. Keep at it!
So far, the polls have made it clear that people donāt like the word socialism and they donāt want M4A in swing states.
GJGE in FL for bernie right now ffs. All he had to do was not keep praising dictators but he canāt help himself.
Polls are roughly even from the candidates (the reason those three do better is all three have name recognition the others donāt except warren, who has it but nobody likes her)
Not just FL, but I also think bidenās stronger in PA though the ads of bernie eliminates 500k jobs in PA with his fracking ban write themselves.
Regardless, if the dem wins as Iāve stated repeatedly, itās because of the anti trump vote not anything positive a candidate is or is doing.
No matter who the D candidate is that person will get hammered hard by the media in the general. This mindset that Biden would get torched but not Bernie confuses me. They all will.
The main problem for bernie argument is a main argument here for bernie rests on all these voters who will show up and vote for him out of nowhere as been stated by yourself and others many times except so far thereās been zero evidence of this.
There are definitely some parallels with McGovern (he had a huge grassroots thing himself, was big on college age, etc); obviously this is a completely different era and Trump is nowhere near as popular as Nixon. Similar negatives apply thoughāif youāre stuck relying on high college turnout youāve pretty much already lost.
All of these candidates are pretty flawed is annoying but they all can win, the unelectable argument is trash but they all have a different path for their best shot at 270 I think.
I think Bernie will get the nomination, hopefully he realizes where his path is and how to get those votes in those states. Iām not sure heād figure it out.
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Any eDem people who care a lot about taxes would be Republicans.
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Iām posting from the perspective of descriptive psychology and not candidate advocacy. Iām more interested in understanding and explaining how people think rather than having a normative discussion on whether they are right.
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Trump winning shook their belief in the polling numbers.
Obama pushed through Obamacare and Dems took a beating in 2010. Iām sure some of them think even if Sanders wins, he will push policies that will get Democrats wrecked even worse in 2022.
Dems seem to see things too much on a simplified left-right continuum. If candidates like McGovern, Mondale, and Hillary lose, then they think the correct adjustment is to move to the center.
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This needs to be shouted from the rooftops
Spoke to my mother last night, a steadfast liberal Democrat. She was appalled by the possibility that Bernie might become the nominee. Though strongly aligned ideologically, sheās convinced Bernieās the most polarizing candidate and will drive all moderates, fence-sitters, and never-Trump republicans over to Trump and seal his re-election.
My mom was an Obama/Hillary/Warren fan but Iāve won her over. Sheās all aboard the Bernie train now.
She watches MSM all day because shes sick and canāt go out. She thinks the MSM & establishment are full of shit and they are shook by Bernie. She thinks hes got the best chance and is actually upset with dems because she thinks if he gets a plurality and they take it away from him Trump is gonna win. I got her on the Bernie train but she came to that conclusion all on her own. We got a 70 year old grandma Bernie bro guys!
Well I shouldnāt say I got her on the Bernie train. I think it was the killer mike the time is now video.
I should get her to make an account 
Sheād fit right in here.
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