You’re putting an awful lot of faith in their ability to actually do it. If they could organize well enough to ratfuck Bernie he’d already be heads up with Biden by now.
The eDems aren’t an organized monolith, they’re the same bunch of grifters and failsons as the other side for the most part. They missed their window.
And they bleat hardest right before they capitulate - just like the Republican establishment did.
If it won’t happen, how can you explain this tweet?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233489045520625664?s=19
If you believe that a well-meaning, intelligent person absolutely has to believe that Sanders will beat Trump and has the best chance of beating Trump, you are wrong.
I said “if”. Based on your posting, it is within the range of things you might possibly believe.
You come across as paranoid, always taking the least charitable interpretation of people who you think are wrong, and incapable of empathy with people you disagree with.
There are Dems who are generally progressive and want to win, who are intelligent and well-meaning, who have their doubts about Bernie’s ability to win against Trump. Do we agree that such people exist and that some party insiders can be described as such?
Keep in mind that it does not have to be a plan. It almost can’t be a plan. But, that doesn’t mean it won’t happen all the same.
The difference is that the Republicans and their donors are basically getting what they want with Trump.
The DemE in this case is thousands of people who get to make up their own mind. Cognitive dissonance or whatever, many of them will be fully committed to the idea that Bernie is the candidate who can never beat Trump. Most of them will think they are doing the right thing.
I think Bernie probably will get the nomination if he gets 49%, but I would definitely take even money that he will not get the nomination if he gets a plurality but not a majority in the first round.
Yeah, that Trump tweet about Backroom Politics is correct.
The realistic scenario is Dirty Ds come to Bernie and say we will bend the knee if you change X, Y and Z about your agenda. And Bernie says no, I campaigned on what I believe and I’m not going to lie about my beliefs now.
Then the Dirty Ds say “support of Israel, unqualified denouncement of Communist Regimes, etc.” are bedrock principles of the Dirty D party, as Bernie has refused to budge on these issues, we have no choice but to nominate Candidate X”
Trump and his team want Bernie because Bernie is the easiest WTF NO for Trumpers. He’s addicted to the 90%+ approval of his supporters.
I feel it is tempting to go reactionary and assume that whatever Trump wants, we have to automatically want the opposite. But Trump is like a fish who can’t wait to shove his money into the middle because he has trips on a four-flush board.
Or maybe he has an Ace high on a three-flush versus trips… Ah well, you get what I’m saying.
It means they are not sure Bernie can beat Trump. Basic English. Whether any other candidate has a better chance is irrelevant. And I’m not claiming they are right. In fact, I disagree with them. But I understand why someone who I disagree with might feel that way.
Some of these people are very risk-averse. Bernie presents too much uncertainty for them. Bernie might be the highest-variance candidate. He could have the biggest chance of a huge win but also the biggest chance of a huge loss. They would rather stick with conventional politics that they are comfortable with and feel they understand. They might want the most progressive outcome possible while staying within those boundaries, but they don’t want to stray from their comfort zone.
That would have to be big-time poll uncuckers to hold this position. Like sure you (they?) can believe anything you want. All available data says you’re (they’re?) incoherent.
I think one realistic scenario is someone like Klobuchar or Buttigieg pitching the idea that they should be the VP on a unity ticket. Will Bernie take that deal? Is it wrong for them to try to rack up delegates so they are in a position to make that offer?
It’s possible they believe that as they are pretty stupid people after all… much, much, much more likely is that they are just smart enough know that Bernie massively slows down the flow of cash to their pockets via political consulting, lobbying, etc.
People always believe what they want. Confirmation bias is a thing. People like data when it confirms what they already believe. They ignore data when it doesn’t.
It’s like in sports. People cite the analytics data when it backs up what they believe. They cite the “eye test” when they disagree with the analytics. The number-crunchers are only valuable when they back up what people already want to believe.
People aren’t that rational. There are plenty of people out there who will apply a similarity heuristic and decide that someone like Bernie is doomed like McGovern and Mondale, ignoring whatever data is out there. They may engaging in anchoring, where their opinion of what is too liberal to be elected was set 3-40 years ago and hasn’t been updated to account for changing national political dynamics.
Trump wasn’t really a big threat to them like Bernie is. At least they didn’t think at the time, probably figured they would have been able to control him a lot easier. He still supports all the corruption and everything the establishment does.
Like Trump isn’t trying to get money out of politics and he doesn’t terrify their mega donors.
The heads up RCP average against Trump has Bernie and Biden tied for first, Bloomberg less than a point back and everyone else within 3 points.
This feels wrong to me. I mean, the eDem pols in the game are not worried about President Sanders hurting their pocketbooks at all. That would take a whole different kind of wave election.
My theory is that they’re just stupid and don’t think Bernie can beat Trump. And maybe they’re accidentally right about that, but they’re still stupid because by now they should have looked around and realized that if it’s not Bernie, then at this point it’s probably no one.
Having a massive lefty like Sanders in the white house who says he will use the bully pulpit is how you get that wave election. If Sanders win and beats Trump and is going around the country talking about getting money out of politics, attacking lobbyists, calling out dems like Feinstein in CA for being trash then I think that does threaten their pockets. Are megadonors really gonna keep giving big to the dems?
If Sanders is calling out Senators by name saying we could have this extremely popular policy but this senator won’t support it, I think that terrifies them.
Also he can push them to stop putting their thumbs on the scale for other centrists in congressional races.
It’s a massive effect imo