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Back in late 2018, the Democratic National Committee announced that there would be a total of 12 DNC-santioned debates leading up to the 2020 primaries. Because of the absurd number of candidates, the early debates will be spread out over two days.
The first set of debates of these was hosted by NBC and took place in late June, where it was widely acknowledged that Elizabeth Warren did very well in the first debate (the de facto undercard) and that Kamala Harris did very well in the second.
The second set of debates will be hosted by CNN and are happening at 8 PM on July 30 and 31. Like last time, there will be 10 candidates on each night. The candidate list is exactly the same, except that Steve Bullock is taking the place of Eric Swalwell.
The schedule for the next debates:
July 30: Policy discussions featuring WHITE PEOPLE
Steve Bullock
Pete Buttigieg
John Delaney
John Hickenlooper
Amy Klobuchar
Beto OâRourke
Tim Ryan
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Marianne Williamson
July 31: A group of minorities kill Joe Biden
Michael Bennet
Joe Biden
Cory Booker
JuliĂĄn Castro
Bill de Blasio
Tulsi Gabbard
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
Jay Inslee
Andrew Yang
This upcoming debate may be the last chance for several candidates to try to gain traction, as the criteria for inclusion in the third debate are much more stringent (at least 2% support in three major polls AND 130,000 unique donations, including at least 400 donations in each of 20 states).
Theyâve learned in the last debate that the way to win is to hog the mic and talk over each other as much as possible, so expect these next debates to be full of that.
Probably wonât watch but follow along in this thread and twitter snippets. Iâm not undecided, so I would end up rooting for certain people to screw up. Donât want to be that person.
The CNN commercials for the debates are unintentionally hilarious. They fire off the list of the candidates, pausing briefly halfway through. Because of that pause, it makes it look like some SNL spoof of a never-ending list of names.
Yang became the 8th person to qualify for the 3rd debate in September. I suspect/hope that from the third debate on, weâll have a much smaller field, over 8-10 candidates most likely (i canât imagine many more people hitting the quals for the 3rd debate). It would be great if they could do the 3rd debate split onto 2 nights (4-5 people per night), but prob wonât happen. These 10 person debates do not give sufficient time to each candidate.
Yeah it seems like the optimal play might be for Liz/Bernie to just play it safe and go after the moderates Beto/Butti. Iâm sure the hosts will try to get them to attack one another though to make for better TV.
I donât know what Bernieâs plans are but Warren for sure doesnât need to go on the attack. The absolute biggest Berniebro I know recently got fully on board with Warren because he feels theyâre similar enough but Warren is more likely to win. She owns Bernieâs space now. She doesnât need to do anything that would give the appearance of being at odds with him.
@Trolly youâre close but first of all you made a calculator typo somewhere because your fraction equals 1.625%. Secondly, your denominator should be cut in half because it counts order of groups (1st or 2nd day) whereas your numerator doesnât. So the answer is about 3.25%
There are two ways Iâd approach this problem:
a) 2â C(10,5) / C(20,5) â 3.25%
b) C(15,5) / C(19,9) = same answer
The latter is basically what you did. The numerator is the same and C(19,9) is exactly half of C(20,10). You can just divide C(20,10) by 2, or you can get C(19,9) by starting with an arbitrary 1st person and counting the ways to pick 9 possible group mates out of the remaining 19 people.
I guess for the numerator you counted the ways to choose 10 people for the all-white group, which is why you wrote C(15,10). Also valid is to choose 5 white people to go with the 5 minorities, which would give you C(15,5). Of course, C(n,r) is always the same as C(n, n-r).
End of lecture, as you can see I love this stuff :)
they ended up doing three different drawings to determine which candidates were on which night, one drawing with the ten lowest polling candidates, one with the next six (which included yang, castro, and booker), then the final drawing with the last four.
