Democratic Primary Debates

Mega-thread Note


This is one of our ongoing, loosely structured community conversations about daily news with thousands of replies. There is no need to read the entire archive for context. If you are new you can skip to the end and join in the discussion of current events as they happen. However, it is always a good idea to spend at least a few minutes reading first to get a feel for the community and the topic before posting.

Back in late 2018, the Democratic National Committee announced that there would be a total of 12 DNC-santioned debates leading up to the 2020 primaries. Because of the absurd number of candidates, the early debates will be spread out over two days.

The first set of debates of these was hosted by NBC and took place in late June, where it was widely acknowledged that Elizabeth Warren did very well in the first debate (the de facto undercard) and that Kamala Harris did very well in the second.

The second set of debates will be hosted by CNN and are happening at 8 PM on July 30 and 31. Like last time, there will be 10 candidates on each night. The candidate list is exactly the same, except that Steve Bullock is taking the place of Eric Swalwell.

The schedule for the next debates:

July 30: Policy discussions featuring WHITE PEOPLE
Steve Bullock
Pete Buttigieg
John Delaney
John Hickenlooper
Amy Klobuchar
Beto O’Rourke
Tim Ryan
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Marianne Williamson

July 31: A group of minorities kill Joe Biden
Michael Bennet
Joe Biden
Cory Booker
Julián Castro
Bill de Blasio
Tulsi Gabbard
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
Jay Inslee
Andrew Yang

This upcoming debate may be the last chance for several candidates to try to gain traction, as the criteria for inclusion in the third debate are much more stringent (at least 2% support in three major polls AND 130,000 unique donations, including at least 400 donations in each of 20 states).

4 Likes

They should have done some pruning between the 1st and 2nd debates. How is this going to be anything but a repeat of the first shitshow?

They’ve learned in the last debate that the way to win is to hog the mic and talk over each other as much as possible, so expect these next debates to be full of that.

Probably won’t watch but follow along in this thread and twitter snippets. I’m not undecided, so I would end up rooting for certain people to screw up. Don’t want to be that person.

The 2 debate thing sucks. Just make a big boy / JV division split.

The CNN commercials for the debates are unintentionally hilarious. They fire off the list of the candidates, pausing briefly halfway through. Because of that pause, it makes it look like some SNL spoof of a never-ending list of names.

Yang became the 8th person to qualify for the 3rd debate in September. I suspect/hope that from the third debate on, we’ll have a much smaller field, over 8-10 candidates most likely (i can’t imagine many more people hitting the quals for the 3rd debate). It would be great if they could do the 3rd debate split onto 2 nights (4-5 people per night), but prob won’t happen. These 10 person debates do not give sufficient time to each candidate.

1 Like

Finally got set up here.

Pretty curious to see how hard Bernie goes after Warren tonight.

2 Likes

Yeah it seems like the optimal play might be for Liz/Bernie to just play it safe and go after the moderates Beto/Butti. I’m sure the hosts will try to get them to attack one another though to make for better TV.

I don’t know what Bernie’s plans are but Warren for sure doesn’t need to go on the attack. The absolute biggest Berniebro I know recently got fully on board with Warren because he feels they’re similar enough but Warren is more likely to win. She owns Bernie’s space now. She doesn’t need to do anything that would give the appearance of being at odds with him.

3 Likes

In case you’re wondering “what are the odds all five people of color would be in one group?”, my math is rusty but I think it’s

C(15,10)/C(20,10) = 0.45%

Someone should double check that seems way too low.

@Trolly you’re close but first of all you made a calculator typo somewhere because your fraction equals 1.625%. Secondly, your denominator should be cut in half because it counts order of groups (1st or 2nd day) whereas your numerator doesn’t. So the answer is about 3.25%

There are two ways I’d approach this problem:

a) 2⋅C(10,5) / C(20,5) ≈ 3.25%

b) C(15,5) / C(19,9) = same answer

The latter is basically what you did. The numerator is the same and C(19,9) is exactly half of C(20,10). You can just divide C(20,10) by 2, or you can get C(19,9) by starting with an arbitrary 1st person and counting the ways to pick 9 possible group mates out of the remaining 19 people.

I guess for the numerator you counted the ways to choose 10 people for the all-white group, which is why you wrote C(15,10). Also valid is to choose 5 white people to go with the 5 minorities, which would give you C(15,5). Of course, C(n,r) is always the same as C(n, n-r).

End of lecture, as you can see I love this stuff :)

2 Likes

they ended up doing three different drawings to determine which candidates were on which night, one drawing with the ten lowest polling candidates, one with the next six (which included yang, castro, and booker), then the final drawing with the last four.

2.5 hours until start. Any suggestions where to watch?

Better yet, any suggestions for drinking games to make this tolerable?

Illegitimate :beers:

I have a plan for that, but it was taken by all these frauds… :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

Drink every time you feel nauseous? Might die.