The whole situation is the death blow to hope. When you combine the apathy and stupidity of USAers with a legit media/eDem status quo conspiracy, the road blocks to societal improvement appear downright insurmountable.
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Gonna feel so good not voting for either candidate
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âThis post isnât just directed at the Bernie supporters, its directed at everything thatâs a Bernie supporter.â We already told you man, we donât care. There are effectively 2 corporate candidates like every other election in our lifetime. Definitionally we are over it. That said, when one says stupid stuff people have a right to respond.
Well that was absolutely infuriating to watch.
Thatâs the thread title for the general.
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Iâll quit the party. Iâm 100% not kidding about this. Iâd rather join the GOP and try to push it in the right direction from the inside than waste another minute of my life caring even a little about the Democrats if they lose to Trump.
IRL Iâll probably just move to a different country and watch the US go from being the worlds only super power to being a second world country from somewhere with competent leadership.
Thatâs the thing though. Heâs not and you are just making up a narrative that he is. He might win against Trump or he might lose. All the objective data says he will have somewhere between a 40-60% chance of winning on election night 2020. Bernie Sanders would be in the exact same position if he was going to win the nomination. You are just spreading misinformation and lies about his chances because you donât like him or want a free roll be able to say âI told you soâ if he loses.
The people being âshrill and concerned about his on camera performanceâ are the same people who spread false, debunked conspiracy theories on MA exit polling. Why should I think they are being honest and arguing in good faith? If you examine their/your motives when it comes to Bidenâs chances, I think youâll see purely agenda based thinking and you would be more inclined to ignore them and simply trust computer models and all the polling data that mysteriously donât see this"fatal flaw" that is somehow so obvious to many of you.
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Who said that? The people I read were saying that Joe Rogan doesnât really care about people who can only get healthcare bc of Obamacare/Medicaid expansion and other groups liberals should be sympathetic to. Heâs just a rich guy who wonât be impacted either way, doesnât really have a consistent moral philosophy and is largely just pushing buttons on deciding who to vote for. Perhaps not the best endorsement for Sanders to have highlighted.
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The most frustrating part of how stupid everything is today is how the dems are following suit. Youâre allowed to outplay your opponents to gain power.
What are you talking about? The Dirty D Establishment did a masterful job of pulling a last minute audible and using zombie empty vessel Biden to maintain their power when Bernie was on the brink of giving it back to the people.
Oh, you mean defeating Trump? Yeah, that would be nice but that is what youâd call a secondary goal.
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You object to being lumped in with those who are shrill and spreading nonsense conspiracies⌠but you do so in a shrill and conspiratorial manner. You should look into the MA exit polling btw. If I was Amazon Prime it would totally be on your âYou also might enjoyâ list. Sorry again for lumping you in withâŚpeople who say the exact same things in the exact same manner 
Itâs absolutely reasonable to toggle between different standards depending on the subject. We were having 2 intertwined conversations.
- What are Joe Bidenâs chances of winning
- What are your reasons for your answer to number 1.
Question 1: Objectively should be in the area of 50%. Sorry, just saying itâs my opinion is not a get out of jail free card here.
Question 2: For people who answer something much higher or lower than 50%, itâs completely reasonable to examine their subjective motivations for going against what every computer model and betting market say. This is obviously a much more speculative conversation and we canât go by betting markets and things like that. But I think itâs worthwhile in politics to find out what biases and cognitive errors are behind obviously wrong answers. A person could even gasp change their mind after their errors are pointed out. But I imagine youâd rather continue being the imagined victim of my heuristic.
Bernie and Biden have approximately the same chance of beating Trump. I could make a case for either having a better chance, but the difference is probably slight unless the Democratic establishment and the media would cooperate in rigging the general election against Sanders, in which case Biden has the clearly better chance of beating Trump.
2016 is different from 2020 because we have an incumbent in the White House. There are a lot of variables that can go into a contest for an open seat. When you have an incumbent, the race transforms into more of a referendum on the incumbent. One of the reasons that Hillary Clinton was a bad candidate in 2016 was that she was so well-known and established as a political figure that she was almost like a pseudo-incumbent in the race. In many ways, Trump was able to turn the election into a referendum on her so that it didnât matter what he did; all that mattered was that there were a lot of people who were willing to vote for ânot Hillaryâ.
2020 is different because Trump has an established record in office as an incumbent. It mostly doesnât matter who Democrats run against him, so long as it isnât a complete disaster, and Iâd argue that Biden isnât a complete disaster. If he were, he would never have won in South Carolina. It doesnât matter that his policies are significantly worse than Bernieâs. (It matters in that he would be a worse president, but it doesnât matter in terms of electability.) This time, there will not be an âanyone but Hillaryâ faction of voters and a bigger âanyone but Trumpâ faction of voters.
Both Biden and Bernie should be considered clear favorites of approximately equal probability in a general election so long as Trump remains under 50% approval. To maintain this situation, Democrats need to continually hammer Trump on his handling of the economy and COVID-19 so that he continues to be underwater with respect to public opinion heading into an election that will function mainly as a referendum on his first term.
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Oh we are allowed to lump people into groups based on dogshit reasoning? Okay you are aligning yourself with the group that thought it was a great idea to nominate a person with objectively less brain capacity than Donald fucking Trump. By transitive property of Donald Trump stupidity > dementia Joe stupidity > people who decided to prop Joe up stupidity > people you decide to defend those people stupidity, itâs safe to call you one of the dumbest people alive.
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I voted for Sanders in the primary, though he wasnât my initial first choice. Iâm voting for the candidate who Bernie Sanders will endorse in the general, partly because Iâmin a vulnerable population who could be way worse off if the Trump DOJ wins certain supreme court cases. But mostly because itâs just the right thing to do. Itâs almost like being guided by rational thought leads to saner conclusions than angry, emotional gibberish!!
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I think this was true in the past, but not so any more. People like Eisenhower and Kennedy would routinely poll 50% with people who voted for their opponent!! So if you were down to 50% overall that was a huge red flag. Nowadays you can expect to poll near 0% as an incumbent with people who voted for your opponent in the previous election. So 50% overall is not that bad.
I think the effect of James Comey has been overrated when it comes to explaining why late deciders broke for Trump in 2016. I think they were always going to be more for Trump because of the pseudo-incumbency effect that I described. I believe that late deciders are going to vote against Trump in 2020, whether the nominee is Biden or Bernie. Itâs possible that the split may be greater if Bernie is the nominee because Biden would also have pseudo-incumbency due to being vice president for eight years.
Even if Trump can survive being at 50% approval, heâs not at 50%, hasnât been close to 50%, and has consistently been over 50% disapproval. It would not be shocking to see his approval somewhere between Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush on election day.
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What are Bidenâs chances if the economy shrinks by 10% and there are 30 million unemployed in November? Best to not to go off March 1 assumptions in a post-covid world.
Hell, Biden, or Trump, or Bernie may not be around come Nov 2020.
/signed
We get it. You donât like polls or facts or thinking. You like yelling and cussing, calling people demented, then getting incredibly butt hurt when people point out the facts disagree with your main narrative that Biden is fatally flawed. Lets move on, I will have you on ignore going forward.