Democratic Primaries 2020 - With a whimper

Dunno about this. I think there not even being any known assassination attempts on Trump so far (have there been?) show that no one who is very powerful is threatened by him in any way and I don’t think the Republican Party is particularly threatened by a string of Fredo Trumps. If it’s going to happen there will have to be Gaetano Bresci.

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Trump has that hold on people in the GOP like Graham, Cruz, McConnell, etc, because they are at odds with each other but Trump could destroy them politically if they didn’t fall in line. Biden doesn’t need that sort of relationship with the Democratic party because Biden has essentially no disagreements with the Democratic party establishment.

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Trump is a bit of an isolationist but mostly gives free range to the military and back then everyone on the right was gung ho to go in. He would of listened to the military and the base on the right and done the same thing.

I agree with this–Trump obvious can’t hold together a dictatorship, and Jared sure as fucking shit can’t. But after Jared and Ivanka get dragged off and shot in the head, Tom Cotton’s “caretaker” coup government is not going to hold elections and turn over power to someone else. National state of emergency, draft a new constitution, etc., etc., welcome to Turkey or Hungary.

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Sure, but if Biden wanted to orient foreign policy to propping up his independent business enterprises and his reelection campaign and putting his inept flunkies in all the key positions, then he would have a disagreement with them. And his party could rein him in in a way that the GOP cannot or will not rein in Trump.

I don’t see how a Biden presidency is any kind of guard against a Cotton one. Again, I understand a Trump one also isn’t. Like I said, not looking great.

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Tell me more about how this is “just like” Ford.

She was raped, just like Ford

She is a serial liar. It goes to credibility. Come on.

Is it possible she was raped by Joe Biden? Sure. Is it likely? Absolutely not.

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Biden is a serial liar.

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Tell us more about how you hate rape victims.

/s

Except there is no effect that “being a liar” has on whether you’re likely to rape someone.

Whereas being a liar casts doubt on things you say. Like being raped.

Honestly? Lots of people seem to like him. And not in the way Trump is “liked” or else. He’s clearly lost a lot on his fastball, talks way too much, is creepy and awkward, and his politics are mediocre at best, but I don’t really think the vast majority of those who know him well and aren’t sycophants see “asshole” there. It’s kind of like thinking Chris Hitchens was an asshole cuz he said mean things and hurt people’s feelings.

This is such a strawman, and it’s of a kind of the strawmen that have become rampant here: nobody is saying that a flawed person can’t be a victim of a crime; what the fuck is that nonsense?

If someone has a track record of creating elaborate fantasy lies that makes their current claim less credible. Does it make it false? No! Does it make it more likely to be false? Yes! Is it important that all facts be laid bare in a situation like this? Of course.

If Donald Trump accused someone of wronging him would you give it as much weight as if Obama made a similar accusation?

I trust them to a certain extent. I balance that trust against all the myriad statements that have come out from ostensibly neutral third parties that say she’s a lying liar that lies.

It looks like a betting favorite at this point imo.

https://mobile.twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1262135115880243200

Dammit. I hate Axelrod. Maybe I’m wrong.

Come on man. “There are no non liars on earth” is an absurd way to handwave that away. I can confirm that I have told many lies in my time, but I haven’t ever committed fraud, and claiming credentials and employment history which don’t exist is way over the fraud line. It’s compounded by the outright creation of bullshit: like she didn’t just answer “yes” to a question where the answer was “no” or something spur of the moment like that, she outright invented this thing called a “protected program” that does not exist. She’s a fabulist.

No. Liars get raped at the same rate as other women. She either was or was not. This is where I lose you guys every time, but you are not analyzing a pool of women to determine which ones are the victims in the group. That’s not how it works. The only probability aspect that changes after a woman is raped is the probability that she will be believed. The probability of her having been assaulted is constant regardless of her past lies.

This is clearly wrong. Whether we believe her or not is a function of the ratio of probabilities that she was raped versus that she is making up the story. If the probability of being raped is held constant and the probability that she is making up stories is increased, then her story becomes less likely to be true. If you replace “being raped” with “being a millionaire” or “being related to Princess Diana” or whatever it’s obvious that being a fabulist is relevant, but we know per ggoreo’s post that it’s relevant for rape accusations too.

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Coming to a thread with tons of unread posts only to find 75% of them are from the most ignored user on the site and people responding to them. You hate to see it.

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Since this thread has been the home for people theorizing about why black voters went for Biden over Bernie, this may be relevant.

https://twitter.com/hakeemjefferson/status/1262961656574836736