Yeah sorry NBZ but that shit is bad.
The main conclusion, that naturally falls out, that these writers don’t want to address is that old people went for Joe and young people went for Bernie, black and white, so maybe dividing along so-called race altogether is dumb. But dividing along age really fucks up the narrative.
The fact that the “is she lying” debate is nearly perfectly divided along ideological lines is not a coincidence. The actual facts are purely secondary.
While false accusations are relatively rare, when they happen they are extremely likely to be made by a fabulist, thus the information that she is a fabulist is highly relevant. It’s like if we see a guy play like an maniac in a poker hand and then next hand he threebets us and you’re like “you know, the probability he was dealt aces hasn’t changed”. No shit, but the circle of possibilities has expanded; while light threebetting is rare in live low stakes poker, when it happens it’s almost always from someone who has previously played aggressively.
Does she lie that much more than average? It’s pretty common to lie on resumes, job applications, owe money to landlords etc…
If what she says is true she obviously experienced a lot of trauma. That could also add to her history of lying and not being able to keep up with rent and things like that.
Those three things aren’t really the same category. Embellishing a resume is common. Making up degrees etc is very uncommon. I’ve had thousands of resumes vetted and literally never seen it.
Owning money is completely common.
I don’t give a shit that she couldn’t pay rent. I care that she lies constantly, about everything, and makes up easily disprovable stories about herself. This is common sense, you all know someone like this. Do they tell the truth about some stuff, sometimes? Sure. But when their latest fantastic tale of woe is spoken, do you believe it? No way.
She lies constantly? Like 25 years are under scrutiny here. How many lies per year are we up to so far?
What’s more relevant here imo is that Biden obviously doesn’t respect women. You can see that when he’s all handsy and smelling them. Gross motherfucker.
Also he was on board for killing tons of innocent people either because he just likes that sort of thing or he was afraid a Republican might call him a wimp.
It seemed fine to me, and the survey data is interesting. Really they are making a methodological observation for people who conduct research using ideology as an independent variable, not trying to explain political outcomes.
Although, I think the authors could have avoided most of the need for the clarifying remarks if, instead of saying that black Americans didn’t understand the traditional usage of the terms, that they just thought about political ideology and partisanship differently from other groups. Basically, they used language that privileged the ‘traditional’ (meaning white) understanding as correct and the black understanding as wrong, but then had to back up and point out that there’s not actually a single correct way of thinking about the question because they were uncomfortable with it.
Anyway, I would think the explanation just has to do with the unique role of the civil rights movement in cementing the loyalty of so many black Americans to the Democratic party. When there is de facto only one party to support (for ~90%), of course you won’t approach ideological sorting in the same way. So the increasingly ideological sorting of the two parties doesn’t really matter as much within the group.
Biden has a very very long history of lying (he dropped out of a presidential race because of his stupid lying and has even lied a few times on tv this year) and being creepy as fuck around women but somehow a couple of lies from Reade and she’s automatically the only one on trial here. Hell you have people putting weight into a hit piece of how she owed money to her landlord as a piece of evidence that she’s lying, shits pretty fucking disgusting
I’m happy to admit there might be embedded prejudice and bias in my view here but I see Biden as a creepy shoulder toucher and general asshat with a horrible record on women’s issues, but not a fundamentally abusive monster like Trump. He has endured real hardship and has demonstrated loads of empathy during his career. Nobody else has asserted this kind of behavior over his 40 year career and it would be very, very, very rare for someone to do this kind of thing exactly once. Trump, Weinstein, Lauer, these dudes have dozens of people coming forward once the floodgates open.
You’re one of the posters I would least expect to commit this fallacy.
We’re interested in P(A | B) but you’re using P(B | A) as your evidence. The latter being high doesn’t make the former high.
That false accusers are fabulists doesn’t tell us much. More important is how many fabulists make up being raped, which I imagine is still a very low percentage, esp when the person has ostensibly nothing to gain from it and much to lose.
You used a poker analogy but it’s a fallacy in poker too. If I suspect that a maniac is 3-betting light, it’s because P(light 3bet | maniac) is high; I don’t care about the reverse. It’s not hard to come up with a poker example where one probability is high and the reverse is still low. Think of a terribad play that only an awful player can make, ie
P(awful player | play X)=1, but that a low percentage of awful players make.
Victor the guy lost his wife and daughter in a car wreck and lost his son to cancer. Jesus Chris dude.
spinning biden’s family loss into a political ‘has endured hardship’ is the bog standard elitist playbook to get some corporatist into office by making him seem like one of the people. how many of the poor people he is denying healthcare have endured hardship? what about the iraqis he bombed? fuck joe biden and his ‘hardship’
i’d respect his political hardship if he had come out of one of the war zones he created
17 kids shot dead?
Without looking it up, does anyone know what the Kent State protest was about? more specifically than just “the war” or “civil rights”.
We already know he crosses lines and doesn’t care at all whether women want him to touch them or not, he does that kind of stuff in public. I’d think that makes it way more likely that he’s capable of doing other stuff that women don’t want done to them.
The second and third group of Tom Cottons are’t gonna let the first run wild, and they all will realize they don’t want a multi-factional Cottons v Cottons v Cottons civil war. It’d be easier to just keep our quasi-pseudo-democracy.
Also,
https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/1263148217673437184