Democratic Primaries 2020 - Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

[Chuckleslovakian]

@anon38180840

The more I think about it, Bernie is totally fucked. The moderate vote was split just enough that he could have waffle crushed Super Tuesday. Instead his vote totals and delegate totals will more closely match, which is going to make it almost a certainty after Super Tuesday that we have a contested convention.

What’s more, they won’t have to ratfuck him that hard. He’s going to end up with ~40% of the delegates, maybe less. If Bloomberg drops and runs anti-Bernie ads, Biden will probably end up around 35% and it’ll be a pretty easy sell that 60% voted against Bernie, yada yada yada, rules are rules and he didn’t win it on the first ballot. Once the super delegates vote on the second, he’s dead on arrival.

Bernie needs to shake this race up and he needs to do it fast - maybe before Super Tuesday. He can’t play the game the normal way when they’re coordinating to keep his delegate count low enough to take it away in Milwaukee.

He needs to either get more people out of the race (ie cut a deal with Liz) or announce a VP or some cabinet secretaries who get him a ton of free media… Or hold a presser and basically declare war on the DNC and announce that the establishment is actively colluding to beat him and it’s not 1 v 1 v 1 etc it’s 5 on 1 against him. Say it’s legal but it’s dirty, and go on the offensive. Say nobody is going to have more delegates than him, we’ve seen what happens when we run status quo establishment types against Trump, and he’s the best/only chance to beat Trump. Say the only way we get the nomination is if everyone turns out to vote so that they can’t rob him again. Start endorsing and campaigning for Justice Democrats in primaries, start going to their rallies and having them to his, start encouraging his donors to give $27 to him and 2.70 to someone like Cisneros, etc. Make it clear that if they prefer a dirty fight to a fair fight, he’s going to hop in the ring and smack them in the mouth.

If he tries to just plod along and get the most delegates, he’s going to get a small plurality and we’re going to have Biden rammed down our throats.

yep…yep…yep…

Pete dropping out before Super Tuesday makes the absolute most sense when you look at it as cynically as possible. I hope I’m wrong

[iron81]

Pete dropping didn’t move the contested convention market at all. Flat on the day at .60

[anon3530961]

[ChrisV]

@iron81

Pete dropping didn’t move the contested convention market at all. Flat on the day at .60

That’s bananas imo, although it was probably a bit overvalued at .60.

This sort of number crunching is what 538 are good at, I would definitely take their delegate forecast over anything the betting markets have to say right now.

Here’s an explanation from Nate on why Pete dropping out shifted their forecast so much:

Election Update: Buttigieg Dropping Out Isn’t Good For Sanders

[anon3530961]

I would be shocked if their model is taking into account some estimate of the % of vote that is already in for states with early voting, namely CA.

[WichitaDM]

@Surf

nomination. Nobody had heard of him a year ago and now he has won a state caucus.If he has even a halfway decent plan of next steps he has like 40 years left to run for President or do whatever it is he wants to now that has name recognition

Grunching. But I’ll take lobbiest inside a year at even money for money.

[Jalfrezi]

Nice touch from the forum software:

Welcome back, Jonny.

[NotBruceZ]

Joe Lieberman, tho

[6ix]

@RegretS

Someone explain to me like a 4 year old how someone leaving the race makes Bernie less likely to hit 50%. Makes no sense.

Xzibit: Yo dog we heard you like electoral colleges so we put an electoral college in your elec-

DNC: You had me at ‘electoral colleges’

[6ix]

@microbet

• You’re wrong.
• You’re concern trolling, right? Who are you voting for?

He’s voting for Warren. That’s why I dug up and screenshotted those posts in the other thread. I wasn’t interested in a zinger, rather I wanted to know how prevalent that attitude is considering at this point the word on the street is Warren’s been a fraud. Did Iron think she was and is full of shit and that’s precisely why he supports her?

p.s.

[6ix]

Wait, also:

@microbet

Anyone describing themselves anywhere left of center shouldn’t have a Twitter feed - not anymore.

Huh?

[geewhysee]

Republican mega-donor buys stake in Twitter and seeks to oust Jack Dorsey –...

[StimAbuser]

Meanwhile Steyer & Bloomer lighting like 700 million so far on fire just to stop Bernie LOL.

[dlk9s]

I’ll say this for Buttigieg. Regardless of whether or not one thinks he was a good candidate or would’ve been a good president, it was a hell of a run. Just a few years ago, there’s no way a gay man would have made it so far in the process and garnered so much support. It really was a brave thing for him to do and hopefully we won’t have to consider a similar candidacy “brave” too much longer. Hopefully society gets to the point where it’s just a candidacy.

[StimAbuser]

Yeah there is no denying the dude did incredibly well from where he started. Honestly it’s a shame he chose the path of establishment/centrism and all the dishonest attacks etc. He would have been a powerful ally this election and could have put himself in a great position in the future of the party which is obviously going to start going pretty hard to the left in the next decade or two, you know assuming we still have free and fair elections after 2020.

I mean maybe he can redeem himself but he definitely burned a TON of bridges with the future voters of the party.

[econophile]

Public Enemy Fire Flavor Flav After Bernie Sanders Rally Spat

[geewhysee]

Hope they got him a giant gold watch as a retirement present.

[champ]

Pick Your Own Super Tuesday Winners And Watch The Race Change

This is cool, although kind of just mental masturbation.

It seems like if Bernie can hold Texas and California (and everywhere else he should win), and pick off one of VA/NC, he’s in great shape.

Texas is close enough that Biden could overtake him with Pete out of the race–that’s going to be the big one to watch.

[kre8tive]

If Biden is awarded the nomination after a brokered convention I think he’s indicted by Barr’s DOJ on some trumped up corruption charges that will make “but her emails” look tame.

[Coasterbrad]

Tales from the wild: the arc of a centrist Dem over the last month and a half.

This acquaintance of mine is fervently anti-trump. And he is a lifelong Democrat. He’s also very vocal about who he supports which has been entertaining to follow over the last 1.5 months.

Very strong Biden supporter > Steyer curious > all in on Bloomberg > Bloomberg ROMNEY unity ticket > Bloomberg is a God-send > Biden is the comeback kid and I’ve loved him all along > BIDEN!! > Biden-Pete unity ticket.

Each time posting several times a week advocating for why we should all get behind his Moderate of the week choice. Oh and this is all after he shared this:

Outside of wanting Trump gone asap, these “Democrats” have so little in common with the progressive wing of the party. And their logic/reasoning for who they support is non-existent. They just want the status quo where their $100-$300k salaries are protected and they can feel like they are successful. They don’t actually care about helping people that are worse off than they are. At least they’re not racists, but the fact that they are in the same party as Bernie and AOC is a damn good argument for needing more than two parties.