lol it’ll be interesting to see how many votes he gets. Considering how low info your average voter is I’m thinking a majority don’t even hear about it. Though Bloomberg will probably have someone and every polling station to inform people.
Let’s say there’s a state where Bernie is getting 50% and Biden, Klob and Bloom are all on 14%, with Pete on 8%. Pete drops out and his voters go 2% to each candidate. Now it’s 52/16/16/16. Instead of Bernie getting all the delegates and everyone else under the threshold, now all the candidates are over the threshold and Bernie gets like half the delegates. It’s a contrived example but that’s the idea. (I’m assuming you know that there’s a 15% threshold below which candidates receive zero delegates, delegates are proportionally assigned between candidates getting over 15%).
It’s not just about Cali, although the effect will be largest in Cali.
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The CA delegate potential dwarfs everything else combined from the pete dispersal votes though just because of how close so many are or aren’t. (even if does somehow be the difference in winning MA/MN that won’t change much other than media narratives, which are overrated).
I mean this seems plausible on its face but at this point Klobs is looking at 1 state, Warren is poling 10% most places, Bloomers has between 15-25% most places so the impact of this is minimal. I think the thing that makes the most sense to me is that an endorsement for Bloomers is coming and Pete joins the millionaire club.
Keep in mind that the statewide percentages are only a rough approximation of the delegates awarded in Congressional Districts. A candidate getting 14% in CA will still get a couple dozen delegates.
Well that’s basically just another way of saying that Cali has a lot of delegates, also because it assigns so many delegates by Congressional district, this process plays out in a lot of different ways and it will definitely cost Bernie delegates there, while in other states he might get lucky and fade the effects.
But like, look at Texas. The most recent poll there had Bloomberg 13, Pete and Warren have RCP averages of 7.5 and 12.7, Pete’s voters could get Bloomberg or Warren or both over the line there. Look at Utah, current RCP averages are Bloomberg 14.5, Warren 14.5, Pete 11.5. Pete will almost certainly ensure both reach viability there.
Does Cali assign more delegates by Congressional district, btw? I’m confused about this. I know all the states do it to some extent.
Edit:
There’s one other important-but-confusing part of Democrats’ delegate rules: that delegates are awarded in different batches in each state.
First off, around 65 percent of delegates across the country are actually awarded according to the results in individual districts — not states. The above formula (from the 15 percent threshold to rounding) gets applied in every district. Most states use congressional districts, though Texas uses state senate districts instead.
Seems like Texas is the odd one out.
so the ratfuckery has begun (actually it began a long time ago, but you know what I mean)
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Looks like Cali is 272 out of 495 awarded by congressional district
The proportion of statewide to CD delegates is roughly the same in all states.
We just love electoral colleges don’t we.
Everyone is out of money, gjge Bloomers.
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RCP polls are too old with their averages. Pete wasn’t polling near 10 anywhere outside of MA/ME in the last week.
(I might be off a state or poll here, but he usually was around 6 or 7)
Utah has only one recent poll on 538 and it’s not a good quality one. (though Pete was over 15 in it but so were warren/bloom) There’s only two, one Pete 5, one pete 18. Seems silly to use a RCP average for that kind of spread to me, that’s just a guess heh.
Yeah. It doesn’t matter if Pete is 6 or 7% in Utah though, that could still be enough to get someone over the line.
15% in CA is likely more than the entirety of Utah. The Utah line might only be 2 or 3.
