I’m going to wait for Tuesday’s results before I start seriously considering it, but a trip to Milwaukee is definitely a possibility for me. One way or another Coronavirus will likely have run its course by then.
Milwaukee has a poker room. Who wants an Unstuck meetup so we can be disappointed by each other in person?
I’m probably going to be in Vegas in mid July, up until the 15th. I could fly to Milwaukee on the 16th :D
I’m confused by the timing of CIA Pete’s dropping out. If the plan is to consolidate his delegates with Biden (I believe the rules allow this), why not wait until Indiana, where he’ll be sure to be able to scoop up a healthy chunk of delegates? If it’s a bid to be VP, why bother going through the first four primaries? Iron’s point about California delegate counts might be the answer, but is there something I’m missing?
How can I be the first to post BUTTIGJGE?
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given Indiana isn’t till May, he might well lose to Bernie there at that point.
I honestly think he’s been forced out because of CA, the Biden and MSM really stepped it up in SC primary coverage and he has gotten favours from the establishment to get here… I feel he’s paying back some insiders for a future run.
I kinda called it by welcoming @skydiver8 into the fold, feel bad though after the latest posts by Sky as she did great work there… Politics huh!!! 
40 years of Pete Buttigieg as a CNN contributor?
As I posted in the other thread, won’t he still be on the ballot in Super Tuesday states though? Seems like the more conventional play would be to drop out end of day on Super Tuesday.
I guess that latest pivot for Buttigieg didn’t work:
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Indiana primary is 2 months away. That is a long time to stick around with no chance of winning. By the time, the narrative will almost certainly be Biden vs Bernie (unless something super weird happens) so most likely he gets no media coverage and likely very few votes.
Makes sense to drop out now if he wants to hurt Bernie/help Biden. Biden needs help now to stop the narrative of Bernie being front runner. SC helped a lot in that regard, but Super Tuesday will be big. Assuming most of Pete’s support goes to Biden, this should help a decent bit.
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Look at the 538 delegate forecast. If you think Pete is team anti-Bernie, which frankly has always been obvious, then him dropping out now makes a ton of sense. The number of candidates is making it hard for Team Establishment candidates to hit 15% in various places. Even if his voters divide evenly between the remaining candidates, getting people over the line to 15% hurts Bernie much more than he’s helped by the influx of Pete voters. The number of delegates Pete could win on his own for Biden is nothing like as valuable as the number he can take from Bernie by dropping out now.
Well what happens with the delegates that are already pledged to Buttigieg?
Luckily a decent amount of CA voters already voted. Pete is still on the ballot right?
My understanding: of Pete’s 26 delegates in IA and NH, 18 are locked to him on the first ballot. 8 are “statewide delegates” which will be reassigned proportionally to candidates still in the race at the “time of selection”, which is April for NH and June for IA. Sanders would slightly benefit from that reallocation if it happens, but it’s a tiny number of delegates.
Also, the language says that the reallocation happens when someone is “no longer a candidate at the time of selection”. Currently Buttigieg is simply suspending his campaign and my understanding is that this means he is still technically a candidate. This may change by April. I’m not sure of the details of exactly what being “no longer a candidate” entails. In any case, this is a handful of delegates and irrelevant compared to the effect of dropping out just before Super Tuesday.
He’ll still be on any ballots he already qualified for, and can even still potentially pick up delegates.
Someone explain to me like a 4 year old how someone leaving the race makes Bernie less likely to hit 50%. Makes no sense.
It’s a specific scenario involving california, bunch of people were borderline to get to 15%, which is the # needed for the main pie of delegates and CA has a shitton of them and Bernie is projected to easily win the state but won’t get as many if two or three get there rather than just one.
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I think it’s all California. Everyone but Bernie is flirting with ending up under 15%. Buttigieg dropping out makes it more likely some of those candidates get above 15%. And California is a huge delegate haul.