My priors are weighted so heavily toward white dudes being mega ass hurt over AOC that I admittedly didn’t read it that closely.
So we get 6 different people doing the welcome to NH intro, and now they’re applauding all the state senators in the room
Again, if you watch the clip in context he hems and haws over picking one thing for that reason, but essentially says it’s essential to get that thing done to fix all the issues causing suffering. Like if we could flip a switch and institute democracy reform, by which I mean:
All the Stuff in HR1
- End voter suppression
- End gerrymandering
- Restore felon voting rights
- Some campaign finance reform
- Statehood for DC
Plus We Should Add
- Statehood for PR
- Secure voting machines
- Expanded early voting, more access to voter registration (dunno for sure if this is in there)
Imagine how much the playing field changes in 2020. At worst we’re taking 3 of the 4 new Senators, probably all four given Trump’s poor response to Hurricane Maria. Let’s call it 4. Now we’re only down 53-51.
Meanwhile, ending voter suppression means NC and GA are legit swing states. We probably take 2 of the 3 seats up for grabs in those three. I think we’re already flipping CO and ME. We’ll lose Alabama. Arizona and Iowa are up for grabs, this could tip one. I think we could net four more seats… Now we’re up 55-49. A lot just became possible in the Senate.
Meanwhile, no gerrymandering in the House, plus the other stuff, plus the seats from statehood… We’re probably expanding our majority by ~5-10 seats.
Now not only does this have short-term political consequences and impact the agenda we’re able to pass and the speed with which we’re able to do it, it also significantly changes the playing field and forces the GOP back to reality.
Right now we have 100 senators, 42 of which are elected in states with a Cook PVI of R+8 or higher. For reference, +8 is where Texas and South Carolina are. This means it’s virtually impossible for Dems to get to 60 and break a filibuster. There are 10 more senators in R+3 to R+5 states, which means they’re heavily favored to have a majority at any given time. Two come from R+2 (Florida), six come from EVEN states, and the next 10 are still only from D+1 states.
So they have 42 from R+8, Dems get 14 from D+8 or higher and 6 more from D+7 or higher. That’s a MASSIVE disadvantage to ever moving significant legislation.
It’s why we count on people like Joe Manchin to ever get a majority, but then we can’t rely on his vote on something critical and partisan.
So instead, make it 104 and add 2 more D+a billion seats in DC and 2 more lean Dem seats in PR. Rely on the expanded voting rights and protections to skew a bunch of stuff a couple points to the left from where it stands. Suddenly we at least have a competitive fight.
Now the voters can actually hold the GOP responsible when they do stuff like block Merrick Garland, run a sham impeachment trial, etc. Not by maybe flipping a couple seats and making it 51-49 GOP, but by actually making McConnell minority leader.
Democracy reform changes EVERYTHING. It makes all these longshot fights for major priorities much more winnable. Best part of all? It’ll be much easier to pass than some of those other important priorities because the politics around it are kind of obvious if we make it a hugely important issue.
I think it’s a reasonable analysis that if you took the millions of people suffering and analyzed the mean man hours spent suffering under an agenda with democracy reform first versus one where we start on a few key issues, it’s actually better to go for democracy reform first.
At the very l east it’s debatable.
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This has been posted before, but another bit about Duncan Hunter’s family - his brother started an organization that leaves water for people crossing the desert into the US because he was ashamed of his asshole brother.
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No
CNN and the University of New Hampshire have just released a new poll and I am instantly suspicious.
Bernie Sanders 28%
Pete Buttigieg 21%
Joe Biden 11%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Tulsi Gabbard 6%
Amy Klobuchar 5%
Andrew Yang 3%
Tom Steyer 3%
Michael Bloomberg 2%
Tulsi Gabbard in fifth immediately jumps out like Deval Patrick in Iowa. WTF? I’m losing faith in polling…or maybe I’m losing faith in the electorate. But I’m definitely losing faith in something.
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good post
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“New Hampshire enables any voter who has been undeclared, or re-registers as undeclared (not registered with any party) to vote in either party’s primary.”
That may play a part in her polling well. Was the poll limited to registered Dems, or all eligible voters?
I have not seen the poll in print, just a tv story and they did not say.
This is all well and good, but you should probably ask the people of PR if they want statehood before going off and giving it to them.
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Yep I think there was a Chris Hayes podcast that talked about this. A lot of people in PR don’t want statehood.
Her RCP polling average is around 4% and so her registering 6% here doesn’t seem too far out of line imo. She got 5% in the latest Emerson poll.
Will be interested to see the next poll after the debates. Wonder if Steyer will get a huge bump. I kinda doubt it because he said all the right things and I don’t think the right things resonate much with most dem voters, and the ones who the right things do register with are all already aboard the Bernie train.
Hope they surprise me and Steyer overtakes Biden and comes in 4th behind bernie, pete and warren.
Or hell maybe he overtakes GOP too
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What is this no incarceration for drugs anyway? That’s just use and not distribution, right? Is anyone in federal prison for drug use? Maybe a few people for LSD, but they are charged with distribution because they weigh the whole sugar cube or w/e.
Sounds like it’s a nothing policy.
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What’s to say he’s not just one wine cave dinner away from changing his stance to “Democracy Reform for those who want it”.
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TL;DR-Big movers Pete +5% favorable rating,Bernie +2.5%, KLOBB +3%, LOLBiden -5%
Klob for VP? Not joking really.
Those are great results for Bernie