Definitely not Venus and not quite Extinction of all animals. It was about six degrees warmer 60 million years ago. The hottest ever I could find on the longest chart I can find is about 8 degrees warmer 540 million years ago. I think the atmosphere was very different back then and maybe any higher would lead to some kind of spiraling out of control now.
In Iowa I have met people who have stated support for Warren, Sanders, Pete, and Yang.
I have never met a person who claims to support Biden, Klobs, Steyer, Bloomberg or any of the clown car.
Caucus night will be interesting to see who has supporters actually show up.
Yeah, I was factoring in the heat reflective ice caps turning into heat absorbing water and the siberian permafrost un permaing and releasing it’s methane. If 5C isn’t extinction that puts my mind a bit more at ease.
To be clear this means I haven’t even had anyone campaigning for any of these candidates come to my door. Have seen zero GOTV effort from these campaigns. Literally have never been contacted by Biden’s campaign in any form; in person, phone, or even a piece of mail.
Have you tried turning on your record player?
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Pretty close. Summary from the excellent and super scary book “six degrees - our future on a hotter planet” here:
https://owlcation.com/stem/Mark-Lynass-Six-Degrees-A-Summary-Review
tl;dr: prob not extinction, but Earth would be unrecognizable.
I’d probably make a friendly wager on that, given reasonable odds.
Not gonna bother looking this up, but the last ice age was like a -5C drop in average global temperatures.
I think it was a little over two degrees colder.
Yeah it’s 5C including all of that from his perspective.
Yeah, I don’t think anyone can really predict what that would look like. The summers would be crazy there would likely be storms larger than anything we can imagine.
Yeah it’s a totally different world for sure. I hope he’s wrong. Unfortunately I also know that he’s a very respected and capable actuary with access to one of the biggest re-insurers in the world’s data (his company is a subsidiary).
Then again he also sees lots of possibilities for companies (like his) seeing this coming and deciding that it’s better for their bottom line to do something about it (interestingly all of the solutions he has revolve around corporations using their lobbyists to do something about it lol). He thinks +5C is most likely if we don’t see massive changes around the issue in terms of public opinion as the impacts start to land hard over the next 3-5 years though.
The last time it was 5 degrees warmer sea levels were about 250 m higher.
Apologies for the derail. How about that Steyer amirite?
I feel like I need to go off on Biden a bit more. He is running one of the worst campaigns I’ve ever seen right now and the thought of him being the nominee is terrifying. Trump likely wins more electoral votes than in 2016 with Biden as the nominee.
It really is inexcusable to not be able to have strong campaign infrastructure in Iowa if you’re going to be a real candidate. The only candidates in the primary that have demonstrated their ability to be the nominee based on their campaign efforts in Iowa are Warren, Sanders, Pete, Yang, and Steyer. I have full confidence in any of those 5 to win the general based on what I have seen of their ability to manage a successful campaign effort in the first state of the primary.
The other campaigns are nonexistent here. If Biden is the nominee we likely get a repeat performance of 2016 where Trump will have large rallies all over the country and Biden will forget the Midwest even exists.
Iowa will never be the tipping point in 2020 but it’s not that far past the tipping point and should be a winnable State in 2020. There’s also down ballot implications with a senate seat up in 2020 and should be one of the top targets for a Dem pickup in the Senate this year. Given the importance of that senate seat and the importance of the caucus as first in the country, it’s inexcusable for any campaign to have not invested heavily in campaign infrastructure here. Like how the hell are you the supposed frontrunner and you have not contacted my household at all that has 2 registered Democrats? It’s the Hillary mentality of assume people are just going to show up for you.
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Hot take: Steyer has the best TV commercials of any 2020 candidate. I actually believe in a campaign where no one knew anything about any of the candidates prior to the start of the campaign, he would be winning.
Phonebanking and doorknocking don’t make political consultants into millionaires the way yuge ad buys do though.
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I’m not doubting this has ever happened but I think it’s being overstated from outsiders. Talking to people in my area, the precinct caucus locations have been known for a long time and are in the exact same locations they have always been.
This is true but since Bernie’s people are the most online moving locations at the last minute would backfire badly for eDems