COVID-19: Chapter 9 - OMGicron

jfc, is his entire show just reading dumb grievance tweets and commenting on them?

Got flu shot today at Costco. Took 20 minutes which is fine, but also 5 interactions with 3 different people at the pharmacy. There may have been some slight confusion but Iā€™d have expected the process to be optimized out by now.

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Heā€™s one of those guys who is bewilderingly wealthy from a whole bunch of software shit youā€™ve never heard of. Hereā€™s part of his process:

  • Take number of anaphylaxis reports on VAERS through March 2021 (583 from 97.5M vaccinated). He says notifying for anaphylaxis is mandatory; no idea if thatā€™s true.
  • Look at a single study out of Mass General Brigham Hospital where they vaccinated 52,803 people and observed 13 people get anaphylaxis. All recovered, with no instances of anaphylactic shock.
  • 13/52803 is 41 times higher than 583/97.5M, therefore we can assume this difference is under-reporting by a factor of 41. Therefore, the incidences of all other adverse reactions in VAERS can be multiplied by 41 to obtain the ā€œtrueā€ rate.
  • Why are you looking at me like that bro? This is science.
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I asked my daughter how school lunchrooms feel as delta surges.

ā€œThe school is flat out ignoring our safety for half an hour every day," she said. "We know this and talk about it. I guess they donā€™t care about whether or not we get COVID. We do all this stuff that they say protects usā€”wear masks in class all day, thereā€™s hand sanitizer on the walls everywhere in the cafeteria, but no air purifiers in the lunchroom when weā€™re all talking loudly unmasked. Hand sanitizer doesnā€™t clean the air. It feels like the Hunger Games. You have to make life or death decisions every day. Socialize with my friends inside and possibly get sick, kill my parents, teachers, and grandparents, or go outside and eat alone? Kids shouldnā€™t be expected to make those kinds of decisions every day. Weā€™re not socially distanced. We sit as close together as we do at a dinner table. I feel unsafe, but happy because Iā€™m with my friends. I kind of forget about it because Iā€™m with my friends and weā€™re all together so I donā€™t feel scared. There are signs everywhere that say, ā€˜3 feet of distance at all times.ā€™ Desks are not three feet apart. You canā€™t socially distance in the hallways. Every passing period is a superspreader event. Most people donā€™t wear their masks correctly and most teachers have given up on trying to make that happen.ā€

So authentic!

FWIW, at my kidā€™s school, they eat lunch in their classrooms and arenā€™t allowed to talk. Theyā€™re working on the logistics of outdoor lunches.

This guy needs to be in the horrible people thread. And soon.

I definitely donā€™t regret running away from teaching. It was an awful job before COVID and I canā€™t imagine how atrociously unbearable its been and continues to be since the onset of the pandemic. Teachers arenā€™t paid nearly enough.

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The best part of the video is when after reading the tweet Tucker says with as much sincerity as he can muster ā€œthat seems sensible.ā€

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Teachers used to get social respect for doing their job, but we live in a more enlightened age now where that respect is given to, like, people who made a billion dollars on an app called ā€œBabymindrā€ and generals who instruct drone controllers on which buttons to press.

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This is (another) one of those things where the American post-Reagan impulse to treat literally everything as a consumer experience where Choice Is Always Good and The Customer Is Always Right has wrecked an entire social good. This is how you get rich people buying into ā€œeliteā€ schools that are just pipelines for imbeciles to attain undeserved power (see Jared and Ivanka) and a population that is broadly incapable of detecting obvious bullshit on Facebook. Great work failing American Empire!

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Itā€™s pretty hard to reconcile this chart with other data on vaccine effectiveness. The recent CDC paper says VE is 86% (82%-89%) against hospitalization, whereas this data is consistently showing VE of 92% or so for August (it seems to be lower for earlier months, which is backwards too).

It isā€¦ challenging for sure. :frowning_face:

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A 6% difference isnā€™t all that hard to reconcile.

I donā€™t know. I think heā€™s a well-intentioned guy. Iā€™m reminded of an actually good Nate Silver tweet circa the 2020 election:

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1300449268633866241

Thereā€™s a lot of that going around with COVID. Heā€™s just one of those Boomers (or is he an Xer? IDGAF) who has experienced a lot of success and is convinced he can become an expert in anything in a week flat, which is kind of annoyingly egotistical but not really evil. Heā€™s like ā€œoh I know how to interpret dataā€, but thereā€™s SO MUCH data out around COVID and if you donā€™t have that ā€œspecific domain knowledgeā€ Nate is talking about, you canā€™t interpret it. If you donā€™t know that, for example, preprints in predatory journals can pretty safely be totally ignored, you can end up getting the wrong end of the stick pretty quickly.

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The leader himself tested negative.

Yeah of course he did lol. Good luck Vlad!

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Pardon? I thought you made two posts mocking the guy and now this?

Iā€™m lost.

Nate is well-intentioned, he just doesnā€™t know when to be quiet.

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Yeah Iā€™m not even sure schadenfreude is the thing I feel when these people die off. Itā€™s more like relief that really dangerous assholes have been neutralized and science / objective reality vindicated. ā€œI have an MIT engineering degree and ā€˜inventedā€™ the optical mouse therefore I know more than all of the doctors and scientists combinedā€ is the kind of thing that may have even been too far-fetched for a Rand Paul newsletter in the past. Luckily we have Facebook to thank for liberating these formerly-marginalized people and their paranoid performance art brut to the internetā€™s shithouse graffiti board front page for mass consumption and adoption.

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I meant the other guy Steve Kirsch