COVID-19: Chapter 9 - OMGicron

i read a usf epidemiologist predicting the peak would come this week. it had to happen sooner or later.

Oof, yeah, it’s not hard to imagine someone sitting in line like that and deciding “fuck that.”

yeah, i know the % positive rate in my county at one point was like 30%. tons of people not going to sit in those lines. it’s crazy. it’s also like it isn’t going on if you go anywhere.

I think hospitalization rate is as good of a gauge as total cases, and it has seemingly topped off in Florida.

  1. Has it?
  2. Florida is full enough where they are going to be much stricter on admissions and faster to discharge

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1429819652998373382

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Edit: Keep 'em coming.

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https://twitter.com/LisPower1/status/1429808635086057473

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We need to start celebrating when people at the FDA die of COVID.

Huh, no longer fans of WARP SPEED??

Edit: This was apparently a play in two acts.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1429823392992145416?s=20

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is it bad that i wished that discussion died a quicker death, perhaps even with broadly applied temp bans?

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NB covid deaths artificially low on Mondays due to weekend delayed reporting

NY Mag doin work was this in the other thread?

https://twitter.com/nymag/status/1428783764084334593?s=21

https://twitter.com/bfishbfish/status/1429811564958425098

I can relate.

We are going to be making these calculations for awhile.

boobies-calculator

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Got this far. Lots not to like here, but not on the authors. Good for them for pointing out the limits. Given they couldn’t control the variables, just observe them, not much that can be done.

Also doesn’t mean the info is garbage. It does mean that we shouldn’t give it a ton of weight as an individual study.

I especially worry about the no observations of mask compliance.

I don’t think Delta can be hand waved like the Magazine author does.

I don’t have kids in school. But if I did they’d be 100% rocking KN95s.

“The findings in this report are subject to at least four limitations. First, many COVID-19 cases were self-reported by staff members and parents or guardians, and prevention strategies reported by administrators or nurses might not reflect day-to-day activities or represent all school classrooms, and did not include an assessment of compliance (e.g., mask use). Second, the study had limited power to detect lower incidence for potentially effective, but less frequently implemented strategies, such as air filtration and purification systems; only 16 schools reported implementing this ventilation improvement. Third, the response rate was low (11.6%), and some participating schools had missing information about ventilation improvements. However, incidence per 500 students was similar between participating (3.08 cases) and nonparticipating (2.90 cases) schools, suggesting any systematic bias might be low. Finally, the data from this cross-sectional study cannot be used to infer causal relationships.“

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https://twitter.com/VincentRK/status/1429489529275158531

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Once again. DeSantis is a murderer.

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Confounding factors to be sure when doing the statistics but The raw data seems to say students should mask.