COVID-19: Chapter 9 - OMGicron

Does seem like sore throat is a super common cron symptom.

I was running some errands this morning and came across a free PCR test site with no waiting, so decided to get tested. Even though I had a negative at-home antigen result last week and haven’t had any additional opportunities for exposure, I still have a minor soar throat. Plus the antigen tests don’t seem to be as sensitive for omicron. May take a few days to get my results, though.

Even if you’re positive, I think you’ll be fine based upon how good you’re running.

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Ugh. 8 month old granddaughter has to get a pcr test today.

Her other (local) grandfather antigen poz on Monday. They of course spent Xmas together. On Tuesday, only he was poz by pcr. My daughter, son-in-law and grandma all negative. Though my daughter has strong symptoms. Grandfather has mild symptoms which are already waning.

Today baby and SIL’s brother going for pcr. Plan is for my daughter to get a repeat pcr tomorrow.

Plan is for baby to quarantine for 14 days regardless at this point (my daughter nanny’s for a family with toddlers and takes baby with her, so no work next week).

All adults are boosted.

Baby at least exposed to mRNA #1 in utero, #2 and booster via milk. So she should have some level of antibody protection. 5 days out and no symptoms

I wonder what the effect of babies born during this time not being exposed to a “normal” viral load early in life.

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Certainly the advent of “crowding” is fairly recent change in human living, so the level of exposure is likely much higher than our evolutionary backgrounds until the last few thousand years. (And one of the reason we have and are susceptible to pandemics).

Kind of the opposite of the hygiene theory. We evolved with dirt and now we live in a more sterile environment. So our exposure to the natural world is diminished but exposure to person to person antigens is greatly increased. With the filth era of the Middle Ages being the worst of both.

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I’m in line for my booster. Pfizer Pfizer Moderna is better than Pfizer three times right?

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I really dont want to find out how Covid with symptomes feels. Catching a cold after over a year without one already feels like shit. So far all tests negative and my mom, who had onsetting cold symptomes, got a pcr at work which was also negative so we probably just got infected by my brothers baby daughter.
Not sure what I would have done if I got it. I am boostered and just got my diving license. I dont want to fuck up my lungs at any cost. On Christmas Eve my dad and I tested ourselves, my mom had a 24hr old pcr result, my uncle and his family tested and we were all negative. The only ones I dont know about were my 4 grand parents and the family of my brother who arrived on the 25th after celebrating christmas eve with his inlaws. I think in our family only my aunt and my cousin take it really seriously the rest just wanted to have a good time during christmas. My grand dad was more concered about when the new limits for social gatherings take effect than that everyone arrives tested. As if this limit magicially prevents infections.

Maybe a little bit, but don’t expect a huge difference

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ALL GLORY TO CHRISTMAS

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That graph makes no sense. It suggests 60 million or so people in Canada have gotten covid in the past week or so, if used in the way you imply here. VE is not down to 10% by any source I’ve seen. I’m guessing they’re running into an issue where it’s number vaccinated/total disease, which isn’t a correct way of calculating that percentage when a huge proportion of your population is vaccinated.

It’s also only two doses. Three very likely makes a difference.

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This is good news, right?

https://twitter.com/charles_gaba/status/1475985651682226186?t=4lORoIk5RqJcKjra5v8KBQ&s=19

If it’s so basic I’d love to know how it is calculated. But if you’re not sure that’s fine too.

Seems like it would have been to do more boosting in Canada, but Ontario hadn’t done much until November.

NYC released its latest updates on outcome by vaccination status, which now goes through the week ending on 12/19.

Here are the rates per 100k population for the latest week:

Unvaccinated Vaccinated
Cases 5830 213
Hospitalizations 97.5 3
Deaths 2.5 0.06

And here’s the source: COVID-19: Latest Data - NYC Health
You have to click on “recent trends” and scroll down.

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I noticed that all the other charts in this section say “vaccinated with at least 2 doses” while this one says “with 2 vaccine doses”. It doesn’t make much sense that they would explicitly exclude >2-dose people for this chart only, so I’m not sure why it’s worded that way.

Also, the small print says:

Because the percentage of people who received third doses in Ontario currently is low, the data do not yet reflect the effect of a widespread use of third doses in Ontario’s population.

so maybe it doesn’t matter much (for this sample).

yeah they’re boosting hard in Canada it seems but they rolled out slower and delayed more between the 1st and 2nd dose IIRC.

The details matter if you’re going to do % protection. You can calculate that in completely different ways. That’s illustrated nicely by econophile’s post that shows a case risk of 27x more for NYC.

Is this informative?

Aren’t whites way older than other groups (and would therefore be expected to die more often than general population even without COVID)?

I think the booster does more than help with waning FWIW. Antibody response after three shots is much higher than it was for two shots, it does more than just restore where we were after two shots.

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JT to make it clear I’d like to know how that % is calculated. It doesn’t make sense as presented, and you don’t seem to know how that % is calculated, and that’s fine.

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This is the raw case number graph FWIW. Seems pretty likely there is a real loss of against cases. 10% seems sort of squirrely, but two dose protection definitely seems to take a major, major hit.

White people are now less likely than Asians and Hispanics to be vaccinated, though somewhat more likely than Black people, and their death rates have risen in all but the oldest age groups.

I :heart: demographic change.