If I understand this correctly, it seems like the answer to your conditional question is just equal to your (assumed) unconditional probability of being pozzed.
So finding out that you’re in the positive LFA/negative PCR group gives you no additional information.
Yeah this seems like it should work as long as you completely ignore human nature.
JT is right though. Antigen tests aren’t designed to eliminated the need to isolate or quarantine. They should be used to identify people with no reason to suspect COVID that have COVID. Given massive community spread positive/negative combos should also be treated as positives, esp if symptomatic
Only because I set up the ROCs to spit out equal negatives on the PCR. If I decrease the PCR performance slightly to, say, 96% sensitivity and 100% specificity then we get this:
I’m not sure what the real-world clinical performance of the PCR tests are though, and I’m mostly talking about the sensitivity. The specificity should be really close to 100% if the LFAs are 99%+. Amplifying something that isn’t there is basically impossible afaik, so sample would have to be contaminated, whereas immunoassays can (in theory) cross-react with other stuff and light up the pad without covid nucleocapsid actually being present.
Got my booster yesterday and I chose the wrong one, I had Pfizer and then Moderna and read the stats on Moderna being more effective… but the Moderna booster is a half dose compared to the full dose for Pfizer.
Also, i assume Omicron will run through everyone and burn out by February, but Delta will continue to linger as there appears to not be any cross resistance. I base this on my gut as I’m not a scientist and my gut only lets me down through having IBS.
edit: i have slacked and not read the forum in a week plus, >1000 posts. I took a flight and went to a 60 person wedding last week in which everyone was double vaxxed. i don’t have any symptoms and will take a PCR test tonight before celebrating Christmas if it’s negative.
But isn’t the original Moderna shot more vaccine than the Pfizer shot? So a half dose is similar to a full Pfizer dose?
.5 vs .3. .3 is greater than .25 so I should have gone with Pfizer, my wife got Pfizer then Moderna and then Pizer and feels a little crappy today, I feel nothing other than a sore arm.
I have no idea if it’s safe to make that assumption based on shot volume. You need to know the volume and the concentration. But even if the concentration is the exact same, I wouldn’t worry about such a small difference.
Getting booster now finally, it’d be damn shame if it took me out enough so that I couldn’t go to my in-laws tomorrow. But maybe I’d get cake? 
While on their way to our Christmas gathering, my sister and her boyfriend were told that they were a close contact of someone who tested positive for covid this morning. They saw the person at a party last night.
Both sister and boyfriend are fully vaxxed though not boosted. They got their vaccines pretty late so they aren’t out of date or anything.
No turning back. Ffs, they found out a half hour from the house. I’ll be masked and distanced from them. Probably won’t see them when I go to Philly afterwards. Definitely won’t be attending any NYE gatherings.
I was double Pfizer and wanted Moderna booster but logistically Pfizer it was. I think your fine. Some have indicated there could be at least a slight benefit to mixing.
I was Pfizer vaxxed and Moderna booster fucked me up.
Lafayette Parish’s chief death investigator, Keith Talamo, acknowledged that most people who die at home are pronounced dead over the phone. He said his office lacks the resources to test every death for COVID-19. And, in a significant departure from widely accepted death investigation practices, Talamo said he typically writes down “what the families tell us” and doesn’t push further.
In and around Jackson, Mississippi, deaths from heart attacks at home doubled in 2020 and are on pace to hit a similar level in 2021. The Rankin County coroner said he wrestles with family members who first argue against citing COVID-19 on death certificates, then reverse course when they learn that the federal government pays for burials of people who die from the coronavirus.
And in Cape Girardeau County, Missouri, coroner Wavis Jordan said his office “doesn’t do COVID deaths.” Jordan does not investigate deaths himself. He requires families to provide proof of a positive COVID-19 test before including it on a death certificate.
So far in 2021, he hasn’t pronounced a single person dead from COVID-19 in the 80,000-person county.
I think it’s a little more complicated. A false negative on PCR should be more likely to be a false negative on LF, which means there should be fewer true positives in the test-positive group if you know PCR was negative.
The people who do their own research as part of their post-doc after their stint at Facebook University are really just going with their gut, combined with confirmation bias.
One of the pernicious effects of the internet is that it encourages people to have an opinion about everything, instead of being agnostic or deferential. Then, people become anchored to bad opinions that they resist changing.
Yeah, me too. But, hey, at least you know it’s probably working.
If anything different compared with 3x Pfizer, getting Moderna after Pfizer may be a little more beneficial, regardless of the Moderna dose. Don’t worry, good job on getting boosted.
I’d even say it’s a lot more complicated. Your point is true for the strictly analytical performances of the tests side by side on the same sample, but I think the real world effect isn’t as clear due to different swabbing sites / techniques, time between tests, lab errors, etc., which would claw some of that effect back. Interesting article on that here:
Even so, McNally believes another explanation is more likely: “If we rule out a new strain and we rule out cross-reactivity, that points to something within the PCR testing process. It could be anywhere from the swab being taken, to the test being done, to the result being disseminated.
Regardless, I think there’s a general point of positive LF → negative PCR not being the slam dunk negative that most people believe it to be. If you test LF positive then PCR negative, the odds of having covid are probably a poker hot/cold, but whether that’s 55/45, 70/30, or 40/60 is likely anyone’s guess. Asymptomatic should push it toward false positive I’d imagine.
Symptom tracker: my sense of smell changed yesterday. Everything is salty now, even just normal air I’m breathing. No other symptoms. It’s sort of like being at the ocean.
Just took a pcr test because primary symptom of diarrhea. CDC lists it as a rare symptom. No waiting at a dedicated private clinic set up at a former bank drive thru.
