Um, are you still taking action on ATH in cases in 2021?
If itâs a 7 day average bet then itâs for suckers. So bad reporting during holidays.
If itâs any single day, then there will be some catch-up day next week which will be a big spike. So maybe?
Maybe, our bet was for a 7dma to exceed the all time high from last winter. I donât think there is time to get there especially with holiday testing lags. We might hit the 1 day high though before the end of the year.
Update on the school situation. Yesterday, the school sent an email saying that because there had been 7 confirmed cases in students and faculty over the past 12 hours, they would offer remote instruction for everyone on Wednesday and Thursday. They arenât going fully remote, though, so there will still be an in-person option for students who arenât required to quarantine.
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Why wouldnât they just cancel classes this close to Xmas?
As Dan says, 7DMA is a total suckerâs bet. Would you give me 2:1 odds?
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On the 7dma hitting a new high in the next 9 days? We are currently at 155k and the record high is 255k (roughly) fwiw.
Iâm a sucker, what can I say? My $100 against your $200 that 7DMA sets a new ATH for report dates through and including 12/31 (meaning that I get the reports for the prior date that come out on 1/1)? Iâm fine with whatever data source you and churchill are using.
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Worldometers was what we agreed on. Booked and your bet includes the data through 12/31 (released on 1/1).
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I think there are laws about how many days of instruction that need to take place in a school year and institutional incentives that make teachers and administrators prefer not to add makeup days.
When I was a kid, I remember having to go to school on Saturdays some times to make up for snow days. But I wonder if there are laws or union rules that prevent that here.
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Hahaha Omicron virus go brrrr
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FWIW I donât think you are a sucker or that my side is a lock here. I just think the holiday testing will keep the 7dma down. It seems very likely we hit new ATH in the first week or two of January at this point though. You definitely have a chance to win still but probably need non-Christmas/NYE reporting days to be massive to go over 255k.
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This seems right. I think we would have a chance in 2021, but I donât think our testing capacity is there.
If anyone could go into any McDonaldâs right now for a test and be in and out in 2 minutes with results in 24 hours, I think youâd lose.
Oh I completely agree with this. It seems likely that we are already at new ATH for Covid infection in the US.
Agreed, I think this is basically a fair bet. Itâs largely riding on the fact that NYE is a Friday (was a Saturday last year).
In our state you need a waiver to go for under 180 days and remote days donât automatically count. Also canât go past 6/30 because of labor rules. So if you cancel days then later get snow, vacations get cancelled or kids have to go Saturday and everyone gets mad.
EDIT: whoops got ponied
Yeah, Churchill was undoubtedly the sharp side and he probably wins if we could count cases with absolute precision, but with the holiday in there and 7 day DMA this should cash.
Thanks for the info. It makes sense in normal times but I cannot get over the fact that weâre approaching 2 years into this and still canât do sensible things because thereâs some rule in the books. Not being able or willing to make exceptions is a sign of weak leadership.
Theyâd probably get exemptions anyways, it would just be a headache.
Well if itâs a headache for bureaucrats then forget all about it. Thatâs more important than making decisive decisions in a pandemic.
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