COVID-19: Chapter 9 - OMGicron

I was a supporter of travel bans originally, but we’re clearly beyond the point where they’re doing anything useful, and they should be cancelled.

Yes, it’s the same dosage. It’s moderna that is a half dose booster.

Probably was for 90 days or something but seems pretty indisputable there immunity wanes here to some extent.

I have heard plenty of anecdotal stories of people getting very sick twice fwiw, but no idea what the percentage would be. Severity of reinfection data work has been all over the place from what I’ve seen

My brothers friend had it early 2020 and then this summer (anti-Vax). Needed O2 in hospital this summer. Last I heard the wife relented under threat of no grandkid time. Idk if he came around.

Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong, but based on the BMJ study, it looks like their sample of the “general population” were people who signed up voluntarily to take an online intelligence test. It doesn’t seem like their sample was that really representative of the “general population”.

Seems like Hired_Goons may be onto something here

1 Like

Kamala Harris has conceded that the Biden administration was blind to the emergence of the Delta and Omicron variants of Covid-19, and said she fears “misinformation” over vaccines will prolong the pandemic well into a third year.

Harris’s comments about Covid, in which she also appeared to place blame on the medical community for a lack of foresight, would seem to confirm the administration’s view that the pandemic is its biggest obstacle to progress.

“We didn’t see Delta coming. I think most scientists did not – upon whose advice and direction we have relied – didn’t see Delta coming,” Harris said.

“We didn’t see Omicron coming. And that’s the nature of what this awful virus has been, which as it turns out, has mutations and variants.”

Omicron deaths in England rise to seven

The number of deaths in England of people with the Omicron variant has risen to seven, the UK Health Security Agency said, from the previous figure of one.

Hospital admissions in England for people with confirmed or suspected Omicron rose to 85, from 65.

I am guessing that the 19% sentence is just poorly phrased.

As a simple observation, 1/5.4 = 18.5%, or ‘as low as 19%’

The sentence is actually saying something like, the vaccine’s protection against omicron is as low as 19% of that of it against delta.

2 Likes

The weakness of both of these studies is that the severity of disease is mediated not just by how efficiently a virus infects cells and replicates but also by the violence of the host immune response, which, unfortunately, is awfully hard to test outside of living, breathing people. We’ll see as we collect more data, but I think both studies are interesting, especially since they reinforce each other’s findings, and there’s some cause for measured optimism.

lol - yeah that’s it

1 Like

I think you reverse engineered their math correctly, but I don’t think they necessarily did the math correctly on vaccine effectiveness. You don’t divide by the population, but by the relative fraction of unvaccinated people who got it. So,

Unvaxxed, 100 people out of 10000 got delta
Vaxxed, 10 people out of 10000 got delta (using the same population size of vaxxed and unvaxxed makes for easier math)

1- 10/100= 90% vaccine effectiveness.

Now for omicron::

Unvaxxed, 100 out of 10000 people got it
Vaxxed, 10 * 5.4 out of 10000 people got it

1- 54/100 = 46% effectiveness.

I guess if the baseline effectiveness is 85% instead of 90%, then you get 19% omicron effectiveness.

1 Like

https://twitter.com/HirokoTabuchi/status/1472227819279339522?t=bP9lBYiEL4Joe56d-VWwMg&s=19

https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1472251854407049228?t=ZzgqEIi9bok6uYbci70NpA&s=19

7 Likes

Things are really bad in NY again, obviously. Jen Psaki ready to enjoy that cushy CNN job soon though!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-18/vaccine-data-gaps-point-to-millions-more-in-u-s-who-lack-shots

On the plus side, best chocolate chip cookie in the world around the corner at Levain Bakery.

Doordash that shit

I hope you’re not joking about this. Chocolate chip cookies are serious business for me. Probably my favorite dessert. I’ve been to Manhattan several times, but rarely need to go to Harlem. I would definitely make a trip just for the cookie the next time I’m there. But it better be worth it.

1 Like

There are two locations on the Upper West Side also. Maybe even others by now as they’ve grown in popularity. They ship, too.

I realize judging the best is subjective, and these things are like meals as much as they are cookies, but I think they’re the best I’ve ever had. When I worked remote for a company in another city I used to pick up a batch before flying to HQ. I would hear it from disappointed coworkers if I showed up empty handed.

The administration is going to release guidance Soon™ on how to get reimbursed by your insurance company for buying at home tests

It’s uncertain when the new coverage starts, and tests you’ve bought in the past and before the holidays probably won’t qualify for repayment, said Lindsey Dawson, an associate director at the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Details of the new plan remain thin, with the White house saying it will release more information next month.

Good thing there’s not like a new variant or multiple holidays coming up or anything, take all the time you need, very important to make sure there are as many middlemen as possible for this.