StrainA among the unvaxxed
Strain B among the vaxxed
Where R unvaxxed A>B and >>1
Where R vaxxed B>1>A but not >>1
I think it’s more likely that the R for strain A is going to dominate and present enough of a barrier by natural infection/immunity, even if R>1 amongst the vaxxed.
The WHO has classed it a variant of concern - but what does this mean?
A “variant of concern” is the World Health Organization’s top category of worrying Covid variants.
The decision adds weight to the mounting scientific worry about the potential of this new variant, but it doesn’t change any of the facts.
The variant has an astounding collection of mutations which are thought to increase its ability to spread and bypass some, but not all, of the protection from vaccines.
However, we still don’t have the clear real-world data.
We don’t know for sure that it spreads faster, makes vaccines or drugs less effective or whether it leads to more severe disease.
The WHO have also given it a name and ended days of speculation that we would end up in the slightly ridiculous position of calling the new variant the “Nu variant”.
There have even been arguments about the correct pronunciation of the Greek letter Nu (it’s technically a “Nee”).
I think Nu’s (Nee’s) reserved for Delta+ and Xi, doubt the WHO’s ever calling a variant Xi. Let’s hope Biden isn’t in the greek alphabet. And 'erb is pronouced Herb, unless you’re French.
On Monday, the World Health Assembly, the decision-making body of the World Health Organization, will meet in a special session. They will hear that vaccination rates in the six countries now subject to UK travel bans are still dangerously below the 40% target that was set for December. In Zimbabwe, only 25% have had a first vaccine and just 19% of the population are fully vaccinated. In Lesotho and Eswatini, which have had the Johnson and Johnson single-shot vaccines, just 27% and 22% respectively have been vaccinated. In Namibia the figure is even lower: 14% vaccinated with only 12% fully vaccinated.
That’s a similar rate to what the South African Head of Health guy is stating but I didn’t have the balls to post - see his twitter!
My gut is this one takes longer to gestate (wrong word but you know what I mean)… seams to lay dormant longer before being detected. Takes longer to pick up on PCR so likely pre-flight PCR’s will need to be earlier