COVID-19: Chapter 9 - OMGicron

[MrWookie]

Hi

[j8i3h289dn3x7]

@JohnnyTruant

Sure, but isn’t the evasiveness and capability to reinfect the main concern?

Sure. But humanity has been on the earth for approximately 200,000 years. In that 200,000 years we have yet to have a plague that mutates and adapts so fast that previous infection by former strains doesn’t convey enough immunity such that it eventually kills us all. I mean, maybe Covid is finally a disease unlike every other in the past 200,000 years? But the odds are in our favor. I recognize this doesn’t directly answer your question, but, yeah, evasiveness is a problem, but it’s still not going ot be able to completely (or even mostly) evade immunity from previous infections with delta, so it is going to be competing with delta.

[Melkerson]

@MrWookie

Hi

I should have guessed. It’s no electric superflu, but still fantastic. Excellent work!

[bobman0330]

This isn’t what they planned to measure, but they trial also showed a much larger reduction (9 vs 1 in roughly equally sized groups) in deaths in the experimental group. We really need to be rushing out both of these drugs as soon as possible, especially since they’ll both have ramp-up periods in production.

[MrWookie]

I don’t think I can top that one.

[anon12304106]

Eh, I dunno. Im skeptical of the complete back to square one stuff, and its going to be competing with delta, but getting infected multiple times by a coronavirus not a new phenomenon. I wont be shocked if we find out current vax reduce severity with a new variant, but now protection against transmission and reinfection is knocked down to a level that negligible in stopping societal spread.

[Churchill]

@j8i3h289dn3x7

but it’s still not going ot be able to completely (or even mostly) evade immunity from previous infections with delta, so it is going to be competing with delta.

Like Alpha is still competing with Delta? Like where, exactly? Even by the most generous estimates a covid infection was good for 13 months, pre-vax

[CaffeineNeeded]

That’s not a relevant question to jman’s comment.

[j8i3h289dn3x7]

@anon12304106

Eh, I dunno. Im skeptical of the complete back to square one stuff, and its going to be competing with delta, but getting infected multiple times by a coronavirus not a new phenomenon. I wont be shocked if we find out current vax reduce severity with a new variant, but now protection against transmission and reinfection is knocked down to a level that negligible in stopping societal spread.

I don’t doubt that there will be reinfection, but the key with whether the viruses are competing is really recent reinfection. I mean do you seriously think someone who recovered from delta say a month ago is going to be susceptible to Omicron? That seems pretty unlikely.

[anon12304106]

well thats sort of his point. If Alpha doesnt compete very well with delta than alpha isnt going to be very relevant to what happens in 2022. Omnicron or w/e isnt the first VOC to have concerns about immune evasion, the rest just havent really affected the course of the pandemic or threatened the vax yet.

[Churchill]

Great, Thanks for taking the time to explain this to me… appreciated

[anon12304106]

IDK, I dont think its binary. There are at least anecdotal cases of delta and a delta variant reinfection less than a month a part. Outside of that I start to get over my skis.

[j8i3h289dn3x7]

@JohnnyTruant

I guess what I am wondering is where that line needs to fall in this case. If recent infection from delta, vaccine and booster, as an example, gives you enough protection to keep Omegatron from spreading as rapidly, then really what has changed here is how quickly we become susceptible to infection or reinfection, right? Then once again we are back to what the outcomes are, which is where we are with Delta already. I mean this is a hot take, but there is a chance that delta is really already partially doing what this threatens to do, and is acting close to endemic for vaccinated and previously infected people.

I am looking for clarity on this so please correct me where I am wrong.

Yeah, I think I agree with you.

[anon12304106]

lol i cant even tell if this is sarcasm at this point, but either your welcome or Im sorry I really wasnt trying to be condescending.

[Yuv]

great now the variant just sound like shitty crypto coins.

have you seen how much omicron is up today, bro?

[Churchill]

Not sarcasm! It just seems clear Omicron is a game changer (been a while since we’ve had a named one)

[bobman0330]

@mosdef

Yeah, the only way around this is to lie in ways that are really transparent to competent people in the hopes of tricking the stupid people. That’s not a really fertile system for great outcomes.

It needs to be repeated a zillion times, but a large majority of people support muscular COVID interventions. What’s needed is to not give a veto right over policy to cops and other armed nut jobs.

[j8i3h289dn3x7]

Was going to take my kids to Disney World after they got their completed vaccine series. Oh well, time to put that one on hold.

[Yuv]

@JohnnyTruant

I thought is sounds like a tranformer bad guy. And I think you mean down today. =(

Clifford Short I Am Lrrr, Ruler of The Planet Omicron Persei 8. May I Crash on Your Couch?

[anon12304106]

I think there are concerns about this being possibly more transmissible, which would just sort of make delta more effective at what you are taking about (and make it more grim because we are in a lot of trouble until vax 2.0 if this is endemic COVID).

The concern is that SA already went through a delta wave (sorry if you already had this chart and this is repetitive). So, early days and such, but if that takes off into another wave how much protection vaxxes and delta are providing after several months is sort of a question.