COVID-19: Chapter 9 - OMGicron

[anon10387340]

It would take basically all my will power not to fire of a quick, “fuck off, moron” response.

[Fatboy8]

If I had a long tenure with this agency I probably would have, but I’m only 5 months in and my probation isn’t done for another month. After that though - it’s basically impossible to get rid of me. So maybe the kid gloves will come off then.

[PapaSmurf]

We need a $1500 stimulus only for the vaccinated.

That should get a sufficient number of unvaxxed vaxxed.

[anon10387340]

@microbet

Quantify the likelihood of spread among vaccinated people over a certain age (old) vs unvaxxed under a certain age (children). Feel free to ballpark it.

Looks like it’s birds chirping for vaccinated old people versus birds chirping for children. Exactly equal then!

[VoteForSocialists]

there was an old episode of “Fringe” where Walter was talking to an equally brilliant time-traveling scientist who said (paraphrasing) “People believe in god, but god is science. god is vaccines.”

[ChrisV]

@bobman0330

Here’s how the paper you posted summarizes the prior work:

A more comprehensive understanding of the susceptibility of children to SARS-CoV-2 infection and their possible role in transmission is needed to help define strategies aimed at addressing the COVID-19 pandemic while preserving families’ well-being.2 To date, most evidence comes from widespread community testing. In Iceland, children younger than 10 years of age were less likely to receive a positive test result than older individuals who received targeted testing; in the population screening, no child younger than 10 years of age had a positive test result.5 Data from Italy and Japan tend to confirm the low rates of infection among children.6,7 Zhu and colleagues8 recently showed that, in household transmission clusters of SARS-CoV-2, the index case is unlikely to be a child. Ismail and colleagues9 estimated the rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection and outbreaks among staff members and students in educational settings during the summer half-term (June and July 2020) in England. The staff members had a higher incidence of infection than did the students, and most of the cases of infection associated with the outbreaks were staff members. Li and colleagues10 recently reported that the proportion of children among all patients with confirmed COVID-19 estimated for 29 countries varied from 0.3% to 13.8%. In Australia, SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates were low (1.2%) in educational settings during the first epidemic wave.11

Overall, much of the recent data has suggested that children do not play a significant role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.10 However, the available evidence for quantifying the extent to which children may contribute to overall transmission is limited. The possible role that children play in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the rate of infection among children may be underestimated because children are more often asymptomatic.12 Samples collected by nasopharyngeal swab may increase the percentage of false-negative test results. This sampling technique is not comfortable, particularly for less-compliant patients, such as young children.13

As to this study, I’m not sure how confidently one can interpret it. Their baseline model shows that there was a ton of transmission among kids, but that includes an assumption that all kids were contacts of all other kids, which is obviously not true. If you instead assume that kids are only contacts with their classmates (their Scenario 4), their model shows that kids are less likely to transmit the disease and most infections happen outside of school.

But we can ignore all that earlier stuff now that we have a study published in an open-access journal, concerning a new, vastly more transmissible variant than previous work was based on, looking at THIRTEEN sick children and making shaky inferences about where transmission occurred. All those earlier results were clearly problematic in some way because they didn’t accord with the intuitions of certain omniscient beings residing ITT, this one does accord with said intuitions therefore it is definitely 100% correct and all previous results are invalid, case closed.

[CaffeineNeeded]

This is not just one study, and is in fact a small part part of a large body of literature that thoroughly demonstrates OFS Oster style were wrong. I’ve posted paper after paper after paper in this thread and others with data showing the OFS debate ended up one way.

[ChrisV]

Very dishonest summary of previous work in the paper you linked then, sounds like it’s not to be trusted.

[CaffeineNeeded]

I describe the paper as a case study showing that kids can spread covid. Specifically in a region with a much lower viral burden. The lit review specifically goes over some earlier data that is brought up to challenge those papers as flawed. Turns out there’s a lot more work done elsewhere that does that too. The whole point of that literature review is to challenge it.

[amead]

Y’all write a lot of words about last year’s pandemic. Stadiums are full. Bars are packed. Kids are in school, and employees are back in their offices.

Pandemic status: it’s up to you, just do whatever.

[Huehuecoyotl]

https://twitter.com/KelleeAzar/status/1450577708539285505

[clovis8]

And they called it the Monument to Morons.

[MrWookie]

https://twitter.com/ABC7/status/1450618038802206722

Fucking In-N-Out.

[CaffeineNeeded]

thankfully looks like this is just one location right… right?

[Meraxes]

They don’t franchise. The entire chain is company-owned. So yeah this comes from the mothership.

[MrWookie]

The others probably aren’t forced by their municipalities to require vaxx checks.

[Melkerson]

I’ve got no problem not eating Chick-fil-A, but In-n-Out might require more will than I can muster.

[Krayz]

Dang was looking forward to my first in-n-out during my LA visit next week

[Yuv]

i was like oh in-n-out is trending i wonder why :(

[Fatboy8]

There’s some thought that in n out wanted to close this location because it doesn’t have a drive thru. This was an easy excuse to do so.